Now that Labor Day is in the rear view mirror, the endorsement race is on in full force. Despite the conventional wisdom that endorsements don’t matter (which is generally true), the reality is that campaigns use them to build their resumes and candidates tout them to demonstrate their electability. They are also good snapshots into campaign strategy – how campaigns and candidates approach constituencies and how well those campaigns connect.
That’s why the NVTC PAC endorsement kerfluffle matters. Not because the Northern Virginia Technology Council can muster enough votes to make a difference in Northern Virginia, but because of what it says about the McAuliffe and Cuccinelli campaigns. The circus side show the endorsement became blows up the narrative that Terry McAuliffe is trying to build – that he’s the frontrunner, that Ken is too extreme for business in Virginia, and that he is the inevitable candidate for the business community. It also demonstrates that those who are concerned that Ken’s campaign is floundering (Dave Rexrode, by the way, hasn’t gone anywhere, despite incorrect claims in the blogosphere to the contrary) are letting a few early polls cloud reality.
The reality is that no matter what the polls say, Ken is still doing what Ken does best – deftly out maneuvering all of his political opponents. That includes Terry McAuliffe, Bill Bolling, and, to the extent that he matters, Robert Sarvis.
Prior to the NVTC endorsement, you would be hard pressed to find a Republican insider in Northern Virginia who thought Ken had even a remote chance of landing that endorsement. With both NVTC President Bobbie Kilberg and NVTC Board Member and Consumer Electronics Association CEO Gary Shapiro slamming Ken hard publicly, it seemed like a no-brainer that NVTC’s PAC would endorse Terry.
But that didn’t happen. Why? Two reasons. The first is obvious – Ken is more prepared to be governor than Terry is, and it shows. When you put the two men on stage next to each other, or you put Terry in front of a crowd that isn’t going to be swayed with charm and some sophomoric humor, the contrast is obvious. Ken is smart and well versed on the issues; Terry looks like he spent the night before the exam sitting at the bar instead of in the library. The second reason is that Ken thinks strategically and he plans ahead. I noted this when I first said Ken was going to be governor months ago. Ken outthinks his opponents. Terry’s sole strategy in this election is, apparently, to not be Ken Cuccinelli.
Those two reasons are why Ken got the NVTC endorsement and Terry didn’t. If you need any more proof that this was as implausible as it turned out to be, look at the AG’s race. Mark Obenshain, whom most Republicans would say is running a stellar campaign, didn’t get their endorsement. McAuliffe’s ridiculous performance in the NVTC interview telegraphed his arrogant attitude that the endorsement was his for the taking. How else can you explain what the Post reported over the weekend and we covered yesterday? “Two people present said that in response to a question about how he’d accomplish his goals as governor, McAuliffe told the PAC board that as an Irish Catholic he’d be adept at taking people out for drinks and doing whatever it takes to get things done.”
Really? If it were that easy to win friends and influence people, Jonnie Williams could have just bought the whole General Assembly a Guinness and called it a day. That would certainly have cost a lot less than Rolexes and New York shopping sprees. But everyone knows full well it’s not, and the PAC Board members of NVTC knew that as well as anyone. That a candidate for Governor doesn’t – or is so cavalier to make bad jokes in a room full of people whom he is trying to persuade – says a lot about that candidate.
The Macker didn’t expect to get outmaneuvered, and the rapid reaction from the McAuliffe camp demonstrates how unprepared he was for the idea that Ken could pull off this upset. Watching Senators Dick Saslaw, Barbara Favola and Janet Howell howl, and seeing Bill Bolling trying to intervene on Terry’s behalf was embarrassing. Both for the individuals involved, and for Terry’s campaign. They looked reactionary and, since the Board didn’t change its decision, impotent.
Ken’s campaign is clearly leaving nothing to chance, unlike Terry’s, and Ken is doing his best to appeal to a wide swath of voters, even those who should be voting for another candidate. His early endorsement by Rand Paul and his bringing the Senator to Virginia to campaign on his behalf is a slap in the face to Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis, and Ken has also managed to win the support of one of Ron Paul’s chief lieutenants and the most senior Libertarian in Virginia, Chris Stearns. Despite the fact that Sarvis is receiving an “anybody but Ken and Terry” vote of between 5 and 9% statewide, Ken is working hard to demonstrate that Libertarian leaning Republicans should be voting for him, not Sarvis. That is smart campaigning.
That’s why I’m still confident, even with the polls showing Ken trailing as we near the middle of September, that he will win on November 5th. Now that voters are starting to pay attention, they’re looking at more than the same old tired extremist narrative. And when you compare Terry and Ken strictly on competence, Ken wins by a mile.
Make no mistake – in the overall campaign, this endorsement is a blip. NVTC isn’t the Fairfax Chamber, and most voters have no idea who they are or what they do. Getting the NVTC PAC endorsement probably won’t move any votes in Northern Virginia. But, as a tool for pundits, it provides a glimpse into the campaigns that is telling. Ken may be trailing in the polls, but the fundamentals of his campaign are all there. Terry’s campaign, on the other hand, is looking like they have no idea what they’re doing.
Terry is taking his lead in the polls for granted, and that will be his downfall. And when the entire state gets to see Ken’s knowledge and Terry’s inability to articulate answers to the most fundamental questions of policy at the Fairfax Chamber debate – the only debate to be carried live on TV across Virginia – I’m confident the numbers will start moving in the right direction.
