Quinnipiac University’s polling unit has Democrat Terry McAuliffe up by five points over Republican Ken Cuccinelli among registered voters:
The McAuliffe-Cuccinelli race has been a tossup since Quinnipiac University began surveying the contest late last year, with a March 27 survey showing Cuccinelli at 40 percent to McAuliffe’s 38 percent, a statistical tie.
“The governor’s race remains tight and could well go all the way to November as a close contest,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute. “The 17 percent of voters who say they are undecided will determine the Commonwealth’s next governor. At this point neither man seems to have much of an edge. ”
Independent voters, who tend to be later deciders and generally go to the winner, are split right down the middle in the governor’s race, 38 percent for Cuccinelli and 37 percent for McAuliffe. Cuccinelli has an 85 – 3 percent lead among Republicans, while Democrats go to McAuliffe 83 – 5 percent. Cuccinelli carries men 44 – 38 percent, while McAuliffe wins women 47 – 33 percent. White voters go 48 – 35 percent for the Republican, as black voters back the Democrat 70 – 5 percent.
So what to make of all this?
Quinnipiac’s numbers differ substantially from a Washington Post poll that had Cuccinelli up by four among registered voters and a whopping 10 points among those who said they were going to vote in November no matter what. It also differs from an NBC/Marist poll that had Cuccinelli up by three among likely voters. Quinnipiac’s poll does not screen for likely voters.
And that’s something to keep in mind as these numbers appear over the course of the campaign. Virginia’s off-year elections traditionally have a much smaller turnout than in presidential years, and the electorate tends to be older, whiter and more conservative. Conventional wisdom holds that these factors favor Republicans candidates. But not always.
The bottom line: there are still a lot of folks who don’t know either gubernatorial candidate well enough to have an opinion, and even among those who do know who these guys are, there’s a chance folks will change their minds — perhaps several times — before election day.
Update
An alert reader points me to something rather interesting about Quinnipiac’s polling numbers. Their March poll, which showed a statistical tie between Cucicnelli and McAuliffe, had the following partisan breakdown:
26- GOP
30-DEM
35- IND
9- Other
The current poll breaks down this way:
25- GOP
35-DEM
31- IND
8- Other
That’s a big shift away form Independents and an even bigger shift toward Democrats.
