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And we’re back!
The historic Presidential debate in Denver on October 3rd clearly changed the direction of the election between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama.
Just about every poll before Denver (the site of Obama’s nomination in 2008, irony noted) had Barack Obama being re-elected. Not by the same margin that he defeated John McCain, but probably winning by a couple of percentage points and about 30-40 electoral votes.
That was before Denver and this is now, but now ain’t over by a long shot. A VERY LONG SHOT.
Yes, Gallup has Romney +7 nationally and yes, Romney is looking more and more confident, relaxed, and presidential while Obama is looking more and more weak, tense, and incoherent.
Romney looks like he is winning and Obama looks like he is losing. Voters can see that.
Romney has the Big Mo on his side while Saturday Night Live is making fun of Obama and/or Biden and not Sarah Palin. Big difference in the culture of the young voters that one.
Obama has lost SNL. But does that win Ohio for Romney? Nope.
But what about the two major Southern newspapers, the Orlando Sentinel and the Tennessean that previously endorsed Obama and recently announced their endorsements of Mitt Romney? Does that win Ohio for Romney? Nope.
Unfortunately for Obama it keeps the narrative going that he is losing this election and may lose it by significant margins. Worse for Obama is that early voting, which he won decidedly in 2008, has already begun in key battleground states. So, he is losing badly while the polls are open.
Losing SNL and some newspaper editorial boards is one thing. Losing Ohio is quite another.
But let’s run some numbers on electoral votes and see if we can’t get an idea of who will get to the magic number of 270.
Mitt Romney currently has 191 electoral pretty much locked away and Barack Obama has 201. Notice that the Tennessean, the Orlando Sentinel, and Saturday Night Live account for exactly ZERO electoral votes. Score remains 191-201. Not winning, yet.
If Romney wins Florida (29), Virginia (13), and North Carolina (15) that gets him to 248.
If Obama wins Michigan(16) and Pennsylvania (20), he is at 237.
If any of those states go the other way, this election is over.
Ohio – Obama with Ohio is 255 only 15 from 270 and if Romney wins Ohio that is 266 only 4 away.
The other battleground states are:
Colorado – 9
Wisconsin – 10
Iowa – 6
Nevada – 6
New Hampshire – 4
Maine and Nebraska have proportional votes based on congressional districts.
Draw up your own scenarios all you want, but today this race is tick tight, a total toss-up, and Romney is down in Ohio.
It is very hard to turn around this kind of momentum in a race this close to election day; however, voting has already begun.
Obama doesn’t have 18 days to turn this around. He needs it to turn around now and it’s just not happening. Voting is underway and Libya is crushing the “I killed Bin Laden” storyline heading into Monday’s debate on foreign policy.
Obama is losing the election, but Romney has not won it by any stretch of the imagination.
In fact, Obama still has an easier path to 270 than Romney. Today.
Next week, after the last debate, track where the candidates go and are scheduled to go. That will show you which states are really in play.
Beware of a Joe Biden or a Paul Ryan head fake. If they go to Pittsburgh, that’s good – that also gets Eastern Ohio TV. If money does not and staff does not, it’s a head fake.
Coaches always tell you to focus on the body of your opponent, not the head.
The body of the election is the guy at the top of the ticket and the money his campaign spends.
That is determined by their internal polls. Not Rasmussen, Not Gallup, Not PPP, Not Marist, Not Fox, Not NBC. Ok?
Follow the money, the body, and not the polls. I hope Mitt Romney spends the weekend before the election in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.