There’s a lot of hand-wringing right now on the right.
I’m hearing a lot of talk about skewed polls; about Romney running the same kind of campaign John McCain ran four years ago; Folks saying Romney needs to step it up a notch or three.
My response: Calm down. Take a breath. Romney will win.
First, this campaign is nothing like 2008. I could write volumes about the differences. The tsunami of excitement on the left is nowhere near what we saw back then. We’ve seen and heard Mr. Obama, and as a nation we’re mostly over him. Oh, and there’s no Sarah Palin. Instead we have Paul Ryan. Take that as you will.
As far as the polls go, most of them are skewed towards the Democrat. I do not believe this is some sort of left-wing conspiracy. I do believe the pollsters are making a mistake though by projecting 2012 turnout based at least in part on the 2008 election. Again, that’s just not going to happen. But more importantly, what you’re not hearing about is the huge lead Romney has with independents. A recent poll by the Ohio Newspaper Association has Romney leading with independents by a margin of 54 – 25. Given that Mr. Obama won Ohio independents by 9 points last time around, you have a 38 point swing. Yes, Ohio! And yet Romney is somehow losing? Go sell that somewhere else.
Next in my theory, is the “Turtle Factor”. Think of it like this: Remember the story about the tortoise and the hare? Romney has been successful throughout his entire career by analyzing the data before him and then moving forward in a steady, decidedly calm manner. He’s able to filter out the noise around him and focus on the desired outcome. He keeps his eye on the prize. I can’t help but believe he’s running his campaign the same way. And I think he just may be right by doing so. This analytical approach is what led him to make the Ryan VP pick, which was brilliant. That breathed a lot of life into the campaign for many of the right-wing hand-wringers and helped reassure the Doubting Thomas Conservatives.
But here’s the clincher: Romney has the ability to beat the snot out of Obama in a debate. And I’ll be willing to bet he waits until the last debate to do it. He won’t come out swinging in the first or the second one, which will disappoint the base. The same thing happened to Gingrich in the primaries. Newt never saw it coming. And Newt is a better debater than Obama will ever be. Obama is great with his friend Mr. Teleprompter in front of him, but not so good off-the-cuff. His “You didn’t build that” comment? It wasn’t in the script. He doesn’t debate well. And Mitt Romney knows it. He’ll deliver the knockout punch when he needs to, in the last debate. Why would he do that? Two reasons. Obama won’t see it coming, and oh by the way, that’s the most likely time most of the “undecided” and heretofore unengaged will be watching.
Governor Romney knows exactly what he’s doing. And quite frankly I won’t mind having someone who moves ahead steadily, in a decidedly calm manner, in the Oval Office.
Steve Batton is an entrepreneur and morning talk show host in Hampton Roads. “Life Is Short. Eat Your Dessert First.”
