Quinnipiac’s latest boxful of polls is out, this time for swing states. The headline numbers:
COLORADO: Romney 50 – Obama 45
VIRGINIA: Obama 49 – Romney 45
WISCONSIN: Obama 51 – Romney 45
The Virginia numbers are of likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.6 percent.
So. It looks a bit grim for Mitt, doesn’t it? Not necessarily:
In Virginia, there was a 7-point advantage given to Democrats, with Republicans’ weighted percent 23 percent and Democrats 30 percent. Exit polls in Virginia from 2008 show that Democrats had a 6-point advantage, with 39 percent of state voters Democrat and 33 percent Republican. Virginia has been getting bluer, it’s true, but considering the difference in enthusiasm this time around, it seems unlikely that the 6-point advantage would hold, much less that Democrats would gain another point.
Ah, the dreaded enthusiasm gap. According to Gallup, it’s real, growing and the trend is not favorable to the President.
And of additional interest, Quinnipiac finds the Senate race between George Allen and Tim Kaine is still a squeaker:
The U.S. Senate race is too close to call with 48 percent for Democrat Tim Kaine and 46 percent for Republican George Allen.
“Virginia’s U.S. Senate has been a dead heat since it began,” said Brown. “It’s pretty clear that whether George Allen or Tim Kaine becomes the Old Dominion’s next senator, it almost certainly will be by a razor-thin margin.”
In a poll that may over sample Democrats, then, the Allen/Kaine race is within the margin of error, closer than the presidential contest and shows Allen leading Kaine among independents by nine points. Right.
The economy trumps all else among voter concerns at 49 percent, with health care a distant second at 19 percent. The budget deficit limps in at third with 10 percent.
And a last bit, this on the television ads blitzing a screen near you. Do they make a difference?
62 percent of those polled in Virginia said the TV ads were “not important at all.”
One day the consultants just might figure that out…after they’ve paid off the vacation house.
