The national polls may show a see-saw race between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, but under the headline numbers, Gallup says there’s a yawning enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans:
Democrats are significantly less likely now (39%) than they were in the summers of 2004 and 2008 to say they are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual” in the coming presidential election. Republicans are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and the same as in 2004.
The trend looks like this:
Gallup also notes that overall voter enthusiasm this year is down a bit from previous cycles. And while Gallup says the Democrats just aren’t paying attention to the presidential race yet, and will get all excited come November, the possibilities are quite real that the gap could portend doom for the President:
Republicans’ greater enthusiasm about voting is a troubling sign for the Obama campaign, especially given the fact that registered voters are essentially tied in their presidential voting preferences and that Republicans historically vote at higher rates than Democrats do.
However, Democrats’ depressed enthusiasm may be influenced by the comparatively tough re-election battle the president is facing, likely due to the state of the economy and Americans’ generally sour mood. So it may be that Democrats will still vote in large numbers but are just not as excited about doing so as they were in the last two elections.
It’s hard to get revved-up for a second helping of hope and change when the first batch turned out to be quite sour.
But it may help explain why the dead, pets, children and others who can’t vote are getting registration papers in the mail. If the current electorate won’t show up, get a new one…Chicago style.
