Allen vs. Kaine is Virginian – Politico is not.

I love when reporters decide they are political experts. It’s pretty funny.

Some scribe whose toughest analysis used to be whether to say “partly cloudy” or “mostly sunny” (and still get it wrong) decides he is an expert in political campaigns and can speak with expert status on a campaign strategy.

And people read it.

Hi, David Cantanese of Politico, who in his own bio brags that “he covered everything from ice storms and tornadoes,” thinks he’s figured out the Allen vs. Kaine campaigns.

His political analysis is as much of a disaster as his old beat.

Oh, yes! He’s an expert. He “did his undergraduate work in communications and political science at Susquehanna University in Selinsgrove, Pa. A proud native of Washington, New Jersey, he has an affinity for ‘the Shore’, hip hop music, most programming on HBO and Showtime and anybody who gets the joke.”

With that resume, at least he used the appropriate final word.

Here’s his stunningly brilliant analysis.

George Allen’s race for Senate is close.

Amazing, huh?

And, get this, Cantanese thinks it’s because of Obama.

This is the problem when someone from New Jersey gets a Journalism degree and thinks that qualifies him to do more than report the temperature.

Hey, David. Guess what?

2000 – George Allen 52%
Chuck Robb 48%

2006 – Jim Webb 49.6%
George Allen 49.2%

Most Politico reporters will note that Obama wasn’t on our ballot either of these two years.

In federal election years, George Allen’s races are close, and not just his. When George Allen got 52% in 2000, George W. Bush got 52%, too. Four years later, George W only improved to 53%. Obama’s win in 2008? 52%

I realize the pressure Politico puts on Cantanese to (a) sound like he knows what he’s talking about, and (b) give campaign advice to candidates despite his complete lack of knowledge about anything in political campaigns prior to 2008, but it’s sad to see nonetheless.

Allen vs. Kaine is close because that’s how split Virginia is, and has been for at least a decade, and even back in the years Virginia was “safely Republican,” in federal elections, it was a 52% or 53% win. The only outlier was Mark Warner’s second Senate run, which wasn’t even competitive. His first? John Warner won with 52%

Seeing a trend yet?

Relax, folks. This race is close because these races are usually close. It’s not because of strategy. It’s not because of Obama. It’s not because of Allen.

It’s because that’s the way elections go in Virginia during even numbered years, and the slightest bit of research would’ve told any former weatherman that.

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