RNC rules mean Gingrich and Paul may be just about finished as viable candidatesPoliticsVirginia

According to this item, Republican National Committee rules may have just about closed the door on both Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul as viable presidential candidates:

…an RNC rule stipulating that candidates seeking the nomination must have won a plurality of votes in at least five states could complicate Gingrich’s already far-fetched strategy. RNC rule No. 40 states:

Nominations(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.

RNC Chairman Reince Preibus issued a stern warning to the candidates to that end this morning on the Daily Rundown.

“It’s an important rule,” he said. “So when these candidates are adding up their delegates or when people out there have a particular issue that they would like to move at the convention, they had better make sure they at least have a plurality of five states to make these things happen.”

The article goes on to note that there is a remote chance Gingrich and Paul could still be put into nomination from the floor. But with Gingrich claiming only two victories, Paul none, and the number of states yet to hold caucuses or primaries dwindling, the question becomes when, not if, one or both men decide to pack it in.

  • Jumping Jack

    Just out of curiosity, what is the history of implementing this rule? How long has this rule been in affect? Has there been candidates at the RNC in the past who didn’t qualify with the rules?

  • MD Russ

    JJ,

    The answer to your question is that this rule has never been operative in the past because of the winner-take-all allocation of delegates in the early primaries. As Brian Schoeneman wrote in his excellent post earlier this week, in past primary seasons the front-runner typically locked up the first ballot nomination by Super Tuesday, forcing the other candidates to suspend or end their campaigns. That changed this year when the RNC, in an effort to make later primaries meaningful, required the proportionate allocation of delegates in all primaries before April 1st. What RNC Chairman Peibus is doing is reminding the candidates that regardless of their delegate count, they will not be placed into nomination at Tampa unless they have won at least five states. This warning is particularly applicable to Nutty Newt since he couldn’t be bothered to take cognizance of the rules for getting on the primary ballot of his own home state, Virginia.

  • Darrell — Chesapeake

    Gingrich and Paul may be just about finished as viable candidates.

    Soon to be followed by Romney and Santorum. Another poll, another dim day for what used to be a proud party.

  • Lacey O’Rourke

    Norman Leahy, you are wrong. Did you read and understand rule 40?
    ” shall demonstrate the support of a plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.”

    1. Ron Paul won the beauty contest primary in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
    2. Ron Paul won Iowa for delegates, won Washington for delegates, won Nevada for delegates, won Minnesota for delegates and probably Missouri and Georgia for delegates.
    He already has the plurality of delegates for five states, plus he won Virgin Islands. Of course you probably don’t know anything about his delegate wins in all of these states because the mainstream media has been blocking him out. Paul is most likely number 2 when it comes to amount of delegates.

  • MD Russ

    Lacey,

    I’m not sure what you mean by “won for delegates,” but Ron Paul did not win a plurality of votes in any of the states you named and he is, in fact, in fourth place out of four candidates in total delegate count. The problem you Paulistinians have is not that the mainstream media is blocking news about Ron Paul but that they’re publishing the facts and not the fantasies floating around on the Paulistinian web sites.

    http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/scorecard/statebystate/r

  • Jumping Jack

    Lacey, your attack on Norman Leahy is uncalled for. Have you even met the guy? You only help the “mainstream” thought that us Paul fans are obnoxious and rude. Yes BD endorsed Romney but there were other authors making debating arguments for the other candidates. I disagree with a lot of BD’s authors and their bias towards George Allen (who I think became a Big Government RINO when he became a Senator, alright Governor otherwise) but keep attacking the author. I’ve seen lefties come in here with more respect, while disagreeing, than you.

  • http://virginiaconservative.wordpress.com/ Joshua

    I have to agree with Jumping Jack. The simple fact is that Ron Paul has not yet won a single state caucus or primary. Yes, he won the Virgin Islands, but unfortunately that territory does not count as a state.

    Attacking Norman as you have done isn’t really called for. He is simply stating what is true. If rule 40(b) remains in place, the simple fact is that the Paul campaign must either pick up the pace big time…or pack it in.

  • http://teapartyconstitutionalists.ning.com Russell Davis

    And the convention may set its rules and the rules of the RNC if I recall correctly.
    An open or brokered convention will likely require rule changes to succeed in raising an electable candidate. Republicans need to recognize their situation and act resourcefully and cooperatively.
    Personal ego raised above the necessities required to SAVE OUR REPUBLIC needs to quickly disqualify any proposal or proposed candidate.

    To restore “American Exceptionalism” requires a cabinet of officers that are VERY competent and engaged in both their subject area and our CONSTITUTION.
    Most will need to devolve their departments unconstitutional missions to the states – employing congress-authorized interstate compacts were needed.
    So much must be accomplished so quickly to restore our economic prosperity and liberty.
    The Republican party needs to raise that proposed cabinet (1st & 2nd strings) and then that cabinet needs to raise a POTUS candidate from the convention floor that is fit to MANAGE such a strong cabinet. Not someone who grandstands and so both inflaming opposition and stealing the credit due a cabinet officer. Someone with a Calvin Coolidge style of presidency.

    I believe VA Governor Bob McDonnell can prove to be that man.

  • LIPS

    RON PAUL has already won the plurality of delegates in at least 7 states. it is gingrich and santorum who are looking like they will not be on the ballot at a brokered convention. GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT!!! STOP LYING TO THE PEOPLE!!!

    Ron Paul winning delegates
    http://www.examiner.com/libertarian-in-denver/ron-paul-winning-delegates

    Although the media says they “estimate” the delegate count as proportionate to the percentages of votes won in each caucus, of Iowa’s 25 available delegate seats, even as Santorum, Romney and Paul basically split the votes there relatively evenly, somehow the media’s estimated delegate count shows Santorum as winning 13 delegates and Romney winning the other 12….as if Paul received no votes whatsoever.

    With that being said, if taking percentages of caucus votes into account to determine the estimated final delegate totals, the media’s general delegate estimate is already faulty after just the first caucus.

    However, as we dig even deeper into the situation those estimated delegate counts are actually much further flawed than even the Iowa example shows.

    Even though you haven’t heard much about it in the media, in all the caucus states around the country Ron Paul’s delegate strategy is actually paying off as county after county and district after district are sending more Ron Paul Delegates to State Conventions than any other candidate.

    AND…

    Rumors of Ron Paul campaign demise greatly exaggerated

    http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/reawakening-liberty/2012/mar/31/rumors-ron-paul-campaign-demise-greatly-exaggerate/
    In their mad dash to create the long awaited general election narrative, media outlets have pronounced Ron Paul’s campaign dead.

    They now speculate about what his supporters may do when he drops out. The Associated Press reports that Romney has over ten times the delegates that Ron Paul has secured. Reuters reports that Paul is far behind in Wisconsin and that his supporters have finally conceded that he can’t win the nomination.

    None of this is true. Romney has not secured 568 delegates. Hundreds of those delegates won’t be determined until Republican state conventions, many of which haven’t happened yet.

    As I’ve reported before, there is very credible evidence that Ron Paul will emerge from those conventions with the majority of delegates in many states. Texas, New York and California haven’t even held their primaries yet. Those three states alone control over four hundred delegates.

    In many states, there is no cause-effect relationship between the popular vote and the delegates awarded to each candidate. Delegates are awarded via a completely separate process that doesn’t utilize the popular vote totals in any way. The purpose of the popular vote is to inform the eventual delegates of the preferences of voters in their states. That’s why many of those states allow Democrats and independents to vote. They want the delegates to know who those voters prefer. That tells them who has the best chance to win in the general election.

    THE REAL DELEGATE COUNT LOOKS MORE LIKE THIS…

    Ron Paul Has 380 Delegates!!!
    With the news coming from all the unbound caucuses exceeding our guesses, we have now adjusted the Delegate Count closer to the truth

    http://lemonglobalnews.blogspot.com/2012/04/ron-paul-has-380-delegates.html

  • Tracy Morrison

    no one knows who won the caucus states as the popular vote has no bearing on the delegate count in that state. ron paul is reported to have gathered the majority of delegates in 7 states at this count so he has established his requirement for a plurality in 5 states. its just something that is not going to be documented until the count on the floor at the convention. that’s the way the gop set this up post the 2008 election.
    the projected delegate counts vary all over the map. most of the major media will probably keep declaring romney the winner and show him as having the 1144 even though its going to be tough for him to actually get it before june.
    if he’s declared the presumptive nominee and it gets to the convention and the caucus delegates are properly counted and it brings him below 1144. which is a distinct possibility
    its going to get crazy

  • Ryan MD

    I see a pretty clear delineation on this discussion.

    Paul supporters are well-reasoned and accurate. They understand the election process and cite their facts.

    Anti-Paul supporters, as intelligent as they may be, appear to have no understanding of what the actual process is of gaining the nomination, and resort to repetition in absence of fact.

    I hate to see people struggle like this, so I’ll make it simple.

    There are really two elections in every state: popular vote and delegates. One is for show, the other is for making decisions. They are often completely independent of each other. Only in some states does the popular vote matter at all. So to say “Ron Paul has never won a primary” is misguided and incomplete, though if referencing the popular vote, is almost correct – don’t forget USVI. It is only accurate to say “Ron Paul hasn’t won the popular vote in any state.” But remember, popular vote is not what matters.

    Rule 40 doesn’t say “…a plurality of state popular vote…”, it says “…a plurality of the delegates…” Again, two separate ideas. Those who say Ron Paul has already established a majority delegation in more than 5 states are correct. I have yet to see anyone dispute this fact with anything but projected delegate count regurgitation.

    You may not like Ron Paul, but at least respect the facts. It disturbs me how many people are so sure of themselves, and yet are so horribly wrong.