While some might misinterpret it to be a college sports conference, the National Journal‘s “Big 10” is actually a list of a dozen-minus-two U.S. Senate races attracting attention in 2012.
National Journal correspondent Reid Wilson writes in an article slated for the magazine’s print edition of March 10 that, despite the retirement of Maine Senator Olympia Snowe, Republicans should not “completely abandon hope of controlling the upper chamber, which would require a net gain of four seats if President Obama is reelected or three if Republicans take the White House.”
Wilson notes that National Journal and its sister publications will be following closely the ten most competitive Senate races “in Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin” but those
may change as the year progresses (the same way the Dow Jones industrial average sometimes drops a stock that no longer proves representative of the market). But the number of competitive races in a year that has seen more Senate retirements than any since 1996 underscores just how fluid the dynamic remains.
One contest that National Journal highlights is the one in Virginia, where two former governors are the likely nominees of the major parties.
Perhaps no Senate race will demonstrate the pull of the presidential contest better than Virginia, where Democratic former Gov. Tim Kaine and Republican former Sen. George Allen are facing off; the two are close in the polls, and a boost in turnout driven by the presidential contest could have a determinative impact.
The outcome of all the races, including Virginia’s, in the National Journal “Big 10” is likely to be determined by President Obama’s popularity (and whether he has coattails in the November election) and the economic situation in those ten states in October and early November.
