Romney’s win in Michigan was stronger than reported
By Ken Falkenstein | Wednesday, February 29th, 2012 | Politics
The conventional wisdom reported throughout the establishment “news” media today was that Mitt Romney’s win in his “home” state of Michigan (where he hasn’t lived in decades) by a mere 3-point margin, 42% to 39%, over Rick Santorum shows that Romney remains a weak frontrunner with the Republican base. This analysis is shallow and inaccurate because it fails to account for the ten percent of voters in the primary who were self-identified Democrats.
In determining Romney’s strength among the Republican base, we need to look at how he did specifically among Republican voters who were seeking to select the best candidate for their party and factor out the Democrat “Operation Chaos” voters who were attempting to vote against the interests of the Republican Party.
According to a tally compiled by Real Clear Politics, there were a total of 968,148 votes cast in the Michigan Republican primary. Exit polling revealed that approximately ten percent of those voters were self-identified Democrats. Santorum received 53% of those Democrat votes, while only 17% went to Romney. Excluding the Democrat voters, there were 871,333 Republican votes in this primary. Romney received a total of 409,899 votes, of which 393,440 were Republican votes. Santorum received a total of 377,521 votes, of which 326,210 were Republican votes.
So, on a percentage basis, Mitt Romney defeated Rick Santorum among Republican voters in Michigan 45% to 37% – a much more healthy 8-point margin than the 3-point margin parroted throughout the establishment “news” media. Coupled with Romney’s 21-point margin of victory over Santorum in Arizona, the reports of Romney’s weakness appear to have been slightly exaggerated.
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About the author
Ken Falkenstein has been a staffer in the United States Senate and the Virginia House of Delegates. He has managed political campaigns. He was a military intelligence analyst in the U.S. Army in West Germany during the Cold War. He is currently the Vice President of the Down Syndrome Association of Hampton Roads and practices as a civil litigation attorney with the law firm of Poole Mahoney PC in Virginia Beach. His concern for his kids' future is what most informs his writing.
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10 Responses to "Romney’s win in Michigan was stronger than reported"
Yet the delegates split 15-15.
@ Chris, if we factor out the democrat vote and look at the logistics of the districts, the split of delegates would have favorably gone to Romney.
I bet some dems voted Romney too.. Lets not bs thyselves. Half a decade of campaigning and all he won is Detoilet? Laugh. out. loud.
in fact, I will wager a bet that Romney won more dem votes than Santorum.
The fact of the matter is, regardless of Democrats voting, Romney should have won by double digits.
At this point the damage is done and Romney doesn’t stand a chance come November. This election should have been a cakewalk for the GOP, but yet they have managed to sabotage themselves at every turn.
It is going to be a long 4 years.
You might want to take the word of a former UAW guy who says Romney likely got more Dem votes than Santorum.
http://www.rightmichigan.com/comments/2012/2/29/01627/1400/4#4
@Nathan, spot on target.
The craziness as the base crucifies moderation plus all the silly personhood & sonogram chatter have done a real number on Republican’s brand. If Romney isn’t allowed to pivot back to authenticity odds are good 2012 will be another thumping. His favorable numbers are tanking w/ regular voters; his net now a negative by most polling. Worse, his UNfavorables are growing rapidly in swing states – once people form a negative opinion, it’s really hard to get them to change their mind.
If the GOP isn’t worried, it should be. Learned any lessons? Doesn’t appear so … now we get a do-over w/ Blunt’s amendment.
If the base is that committed to social legislation, then put Mitt out of his misery and send Rick to the general. Read it and weep fellas.
http://news.yahoo.com/romney-clarifies-position-blunt-amendment-003708653.html
Mitt got destroyed in Detroit by both Santorum and Paul (if the HuffPost numbers are accurate):
Paul – 5,525
Santorum – 4,047
Romney – 1,338
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/409404/february-29-2012/indecision-2012—countdown-to-loving-mitt?xrs=synd_facebook
Ken, nice try in the Romney spin room. The good news is that voter turn-out improved 2012/2008, and maybe you CAN “blame” than on Democrats. The other “good news” is that once again Romney barely crawled over the 40% mark. In 2008 he garnerned 39% of the vote. In 2012, he got 41% in a two man race against a lunatic. Do you see a problem here?
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