Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Public Policy was recently commissioned by the Richmond Times-Dispatch to conduct polling regarding a myriad political and public policy issues. It reveals mixed messages for conservatives – both good and those that should be of concern.
Released yesterday and today, the surveys each have several key findings:
1. Almost half of Virginia voters think things in Commonwealth are moving in the right direction; less than a quarter thinks things in country are moving in right direction.
2. Nearly six in ten Virginia voters approve of the job Governor McDonnell is doing as governor; just over four in ten approve of the job President Obama is doing as president.
3. Attorney General Cuccinelli approval at 40%; Lieutenant Governor Bolling approval at 30%, but over half of voters aren’t sure how to rate Bolling.
4. Two-thirds of Virginia voters oppose easing restrictions on purchasing handguns.
5. Slight majority of Virginia voters oppose requiring women to undergo an ultrasound procedure before seeking an abortion.
6. Slim majority of Virginia voters oppose defining life as beginning at conception.
and
1. Nearly six in ten Republicans and Independents are not satisfied with the choices of Mitt Romney and Ron Paul on the Republican primary ballot and would like to see other candidates on the ballot.
2. Romney leads Paul in the Republican primary 53%-23%.
3. Obama trails Romney and Santorum, beats Gingrich, and ties Paul; struggles with support from independents.
4. Allen leads Kaine by 2% in statistical tie
First of all, if voters think the commonwealth is moving in the right direction more so than the country, it would stand to reason that Republican candidates would be doing much better, including Bill Bolling.
Attorney General Cuccinelli clearly has name identification on his side, but Lt. Gov. Bolling has been in office for nearly six years. Clearly his achievements on behalf of this “commonwealth moving in the right dirction” are not getting across to the electorate. I suspect we’ll see that shift and Cuccinelli’s and Bolling’s numbers to narrow.
Social conservatives and supporters of 2nd Amendment rights have to be a bit stunned that a majority of Virginians are against repealing one gun a month and commonsense sonogram legislation. Even if it is by a slim majority. This point will be seized upon by Democrats and they will use it to bludgeon GOP candidates with moderates and independents. This is not meant to say voting in favor of these issues is wrong – it’s not. Just that candidates need to be prepared to answer the “why” with an as effective retort to the negative spin Democrats will resort to.
The good news for social conservatives and personhood is that most Virginians agree on what is just a fact of nature: life begins at conception. I still don’t get the argument against this. From the moment of conception until the moment you die, the only thing that can kill you is something artificial. Whether that be an abortionist’s knife and suction tube or a car accident or a criminal’s act of violence. You die of natural causes. You’re killed if something artificially cuts your life short.
Onto politics, it is clear that Virginian’s are unhappy with their choices on the GOP ballot, but they clearly favor Mitt Romney over Ron Paul. This says to me that anything to narrow that margin implies shenanigans by liberals and those supporting Gingrich and Santorum, who are not on the ballot.
That being said, it’s heartening to see both Romney and Santorum doing well against the president – a must win state. And, seeing that Virginians think the commonwealth is doing much better than the country, one would not be surprised to continue hearing the name “Bob McDonnell” circulating in the Vice Presidential talk.
But the question remains – how come neither of these candidates is beating Obama like a drum in Virginia? How is it a statistical tie if the country is viewed so dimly in terms of progress? Once again, this shows an unsettled electorate who could be receptive to another candidate entering the race, like a Jeb Bush. Ron Paul supporters also have to be happy that their candidate ties the president. What this shows is that the GOP faithful will unite around whoever the nominee is – except for Gingrich.
Finally, regarding Allen-Kaine. I believe not enough Virginians are associating Kaine with this administration. As head of the DNC and Obama’s chief campaigner – including while Kaine was Virginia’s governor – and the man who put Virginia on the wrong track (proposing a huge tax increase on his way out the door only to be rectified by the McDonnell administration and General Assembly), Kaine’s negatives can only go up. One gets the impression the only reason Kaine is close to Allen is because there is an odd mixture of anxiety towards the president, but a similar anxiety to who is representing the GOP in the presidential race. Allen still does better because of his own popularity and, as he travels the commonwealth, reconnecting with Virginians, reminding them of Kaine’s foibles, his lead should grow.
