CNU’s Wason survey confirms what we know: a conservative base unsettled
By JR Hoeft | Monday, February 20th, 2012 | Policy, PoliticsChristopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Public Policy was recently commissioned by the Richmond Times-Dispatch to conduct polling regarding a myriad political and public policy issues. It reveals mixed messages for conservatives – both good and those that should be of concern.
Released yesterday and today, the surveys each have several key findings:
1. Almost half of Virginia voters think things in Commonwealth are moving in the right direction; less than a quarter thinks things in country are moving in right direction.
2. Nearly six in ten Virginia voters approve of the job Governor McDonnell is doing as governor; just over four in ten approve of the job President Obama is doing as president.
3. Attorney General Cuccinelli approval at 40%; Lieutenant Governor Bolling approval at 30%, but over half of voters aren’t sure how to rate Bolling.
4. Two-thirds of Virginia voters oppose easing restrictions on purchasing handguns.
5. Slight majority of Virginia voters oppose requiring women to undergo an ultrasound procedure before seeking an abortion.
6. Slim majority of Virginia voters oppose defining life as beginning at conception.
and
1. Nearly six in ten Republicans and Independents are not satisfied with the choices of Mitt Romney and Ron Paul on the Republican primary ballot and would like to see other candidates on the ballot.
2. Romney leads Paul in the Republican primary 53%-23%.
3. Obama trails Romney and Santorum, beats Gingrich, and ties Paul; struggles with support from independents.
4. Allen leads Kaine by 2% in statistical tie
First of all, if voters think the commonwealth is moving in the right direction more so than the country, it would stand to reason that Republican candidates would be doing much better, including Bill Bolling.
Attorney General Cuccinelli clearly has name identification on his side, but Lt. Gov. Bolling has been in office for nearly six years. Clearly his achievements on behalf of this “commonwealth moving in the right dirction” are not getting across to the electorate. I suspect we’ll see that shift and Cuccinelli’s and Bolling’s numbers to narrow.
Social conservatives and supporters of 2nd Amendment rights have to be a bit stunned that a majority of Virginians are against repealing one gun a month and commonsense sonogram legislation. Even if it is by a slim majority. This point will be seized upon by Democrats and they will use it to bludgeon GOP candidates with moderates and independents. This is not meant to say voting in favor of these issues is wrong – it’s not. Just that candidates need to be prepared to answer the “why” with an as effective retort to the negative spin Democrats will resort to.
The good news for social conservatives and personhood is that most Virginians agree on what is just a fact of nature: life begins at conception. I still don’t get the argument against this. From the moment of conception until the moment you die, the only thing that can kill you is something artificial. Whether that be an abortionist’s knife and suction tube or a car accident or a criminal’s act of violence. You die of natural causes. You’re killed if something artificially cuts your life short.
Onto politics, it is clear that Virginian’s are unhappy with their choices on the GOP ballot, but they clearly favor Mitt Romney over Ron Paul. This says to me that anything to narrow that margin implies shenanigans by liberals and those supporting Gingrich and Santorum, who are not on the ballot.
That being said, it’s heartening to see both Romney and Santorum doing well against the president – a must win state. And, seeing that Virginians think the commonwealth is doing much better than the country, one would not be surprised to continue hearing the name “Bob McDonnell” circulating in the Vice Presidential talk.
But the question remains – how come neither of these candidates is beating Obama like a drum in Virginia? How is it a statistical tie if the country is viewed so dimly in terms of progress? Once again, this shows an unsettled electorate who could be receptive to another candidate entering the race, like a Jeb Bush. Ron Paul supporters also have to be happy that their candidate ties the president. What this shows is that the GOP faithful will unite around whoever the nominee is – except for Gingrich.
Finally, regarding Allen-Kaine. I believe not enough Virginians are associating Kaine with this administration. As head of the DNC and Obama’s chief campaigner – including while Kaine was Virginia’s governor – and the man who put Virginia on the wrong track (proposing a huge tax increase on his way out the door only to be rectified by the McDonnell administration and General Assembly), Kaine’s negatives can only go up. One gets the impression the only reason Kaine is close to Allen is because there is an odd mixture of anxiety towards the president, but a similar anxiety to who is representing the GOP in the presidential race. Allen still does better because of his own popularity and, as he travels the commonwealth, reconnecting with Virginians, reminding them of Kaine’s foibles, his lead should grow.
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About the author
Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
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12 Responses to "CNU’s Wason survey confirms what we know: a conservative base unsettled"
Kaine was the chair of the DNC for the first two years of Obama’s administration. Obama would tell Kaine to jump and he’s say how high. Indeed, the fact that Kaine is even running for the US Senate in the first place is at the whim of the White House, as I recall.
Good to see that voters like McDonnell — I count myself among them. It would be interesting to see how Virginia goes in 2012, I honestly could see it going either way (and would certainly prefer one way over the other). While Romney is not my first choice, I would definitely vote for him in the primary over Ron Paul and I have every intention of doing so.
One reason Kaine is close to Allen is George Allen. Corporate donors like both of these candidates.. follow the money.
Yes, that is definitely one of the realities of the system. And chances are pretty good that each will be their parties respective nominee for the Senate. Its fascinating to watch the OWS protestors speak of the 1%, yet it is Obama that’s taken more Wall Street money than anyone else. I’m sure there are plenty of OWS protestors who decry Obama for doing that, but where are they going to go? At the end of the day, if they want to see their vision (socialist in my view) advance, they’re going to have to vote for him. So either they vote for him, vote 3rd party (and I don’t know of anyone gaining traction at the moment and it’s getting late for that type of thing) or you just don’t vote at all. In my view, if they pick Option #3, then they lose their right to complain about how unfair things are. I don’t mind folks exercising their 1st Amendment rights, but I also think that if you don’t bother to vote, which is the ultimate freedom of speech in a democratic republic, then you really don’t have any room to complain.
I can’t believe Allen is doing as well as he did after his Maccaca incident. It’s sad that Marshall waited so long to declare his candidacy. Radtke, while I love her, is still an unknown to most of the people voting in the primaries. Still, Allen is much better than Kaine. Kaine scares the living crap out of me as someone who knows no government boundaries and will use it to promote anything.
Allen should be doing well. That incident was manufactured and I hate to admit that I personally fell victim to it.
Radtke – great person. Too soon for Senate. Well, check that. She would have done great in a primary of her state Senator and received our full backing.
And, yes, Kaine is no limited government guy. I’d hate to set him loose in DC. We already see how manipulated he will be when he was DNC chair.
With all due respect JR, the Macaca incident was indeed manufactured by none other than Jeffersonian George.
The problem was that, yes, Allen stepped his foot in it and then continued to shoot himself with the apologies and whatnot. Of course, you also had the willing Washington Post who made it a story for a couple of weeks (anyting to smear a Republican candidate, I suppose). Of course, the Post also endorsed Deeds and a slew of Democrat candidates in the last two VA election cycles, and we saw how closely the voters of VA took their endorsements.
“You die of natural causes. You’re killed if something artificially cuts your life short.”
What happens if the cause of death is neglect or starvation? Did the person die or were they killed?
Killed, of course. Which is why we should be aggressively trying to create conditions that eliminate that from happening. Pro-growth, job creating policies help with that. Tax deductions for those who give to charities help with that. Allowing charities to receive federal assistance helps with that. And, us taking personal, individual action, helps with that too. A person need not die of neglect or starvation – we as a society have collectively failed that person.
So what happens if life is created and nobody does anything at all and the fetus dies – was it killed from neglect or died of natural causes?
Also, if personhood passes, can we arrest mothers who don’t eat enough to feed her fetus, or have a glass of alcohol or smoking a cigarette (contributing to the delinquency of a minor, you know)? Also, shouldn’t social services be brought in to supervise how the mother treats the fetus on a regular basis once we establish she is causing harm to this living being?
You’re living up to your name, Eric, only I’d promote you to “full troll.” You are totally deviating from the post – a report on the results of the survey – not a hypothetical debate. And, yes, I stand by my quote about the artificial ending of life – your questions are already answered in public law. Go look them up.
“You are totally deviating from the post..”
If I did, you did first IN YOUR POST! As a reminder…
“I still don’t get the argument against this. From the moment of conception until the moment you die, the only thing that can kill you is something artificial…You’re killed if something artificially cuts your life short.”
So now…
“So what happens if life is created and nobody does anything at all and the fetus dies – was it killed from neglect or died of natural causes?”
to which you wrote…
“And, yes, I stand by my quote about the artificial ending of life”
That is no answer, sir, if nobody does anything to a fetus and it dies, it dies of natural causes doesn’t it?
“…your questions are already answered in public law…”
Ahhh, but you intend to CHANGE the law about what a person is – I am interested in how this will impact the related existing laws. Please at least ATTEMPT to address the issues I raise – unless you simply have no answer.
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