Romney’s star has finally faded. After two months of claiming the “base” has been locked up, the twin disasters of multiple poor showings in state primary contests plus a train wreck of a speech at CPAC is pushing voters in droves to former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum:
Part of the reason for Santorum’s surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and Gingrich. Romney’s favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31). Gingrich has fallen even further. A 44% plurality of GOP voters now hold a negative opinion of him to only 42% with a positive one. That’s a 34 point drop from 2 months ago when he was at +32 (60/28).
The GOP base is rallying against “severe conservatism” — though whether or not Santorum’s vision of conservatism will remain something Republicans can rally around remains to be seen.
One clear advantage for Santorum right now? Obama’s Chavez-style war against the Catholic Church is pushing Catholics both in opposition to Obama and towards a candidate whose unflagging loyalty to Catholic principles is what Santorum built his reputation upon.
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