(Ed. note: This article appears in the February issue of Bearing Drift Magazine.)
Elected officials in both parties acknowledge that winning Loudoun is crucial to a Virginia victory in 2012. Loudouners voted heavily for Obama in 2008 and heavily for McDonnell in 2009, putting the county in play in 2012. Representative Frank Wolf has warned GOP activists that the Obama campaign is targeting Loudoun and has called Loudoun the “firewall” that must protect Virginia from going blue in 2012. If Republicans leverage their advantages from last year’s victory, it is very possible they will secure Loudoun – and the Commonwealth – for the Republican presidential nominee this fall.
In Loudoun County, there’s a new sheriff in town – literally.
After the local elections in 2007, the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors was comprised of two Republicans, two Independents, and five Democrats.
Four years later, Loudoun’s Board of Supervisors is 100 percent Republican. A newly elected Republican sheriff has joined the other Republican constitutional officers. Even the majority of school board members were Republican endorsed. State Senator Mark Herring is the only remaining elected Democrat from Loudoun. By way of comparison, no other highly populated (over 250,000) county in Virginia elected a single party county government this year.
That Republicans gained control of the Board of Supervisors in the 2011 elections was predictable in a county that often switches dominant parties. But their margin of victory was unexpected.
Democrats Set Themselves Up for Defeat
Three major decisions by the Democrat controlled 2007 Board of Supervisors likely affected the outcome of November’s election.
First, they engaged in reckless spending policies and placed increasingly heavy tax burdens on Loudoun homeowners, even while many were struggling to meet mortgages due to job loss or were experiencing declining property values. According to one watchdog organization, Loudoun Taxpayers for Accountable Government, the Democratic Board increased the real property tax rate 32.5 cents during its term, and soaked homeowners with the highest average tax bills in Northern Virginia.
Second, the Democratic Board pursued a politically costly environmental measure, the Chesapeake Bay Preservation Ordinance (CBPO), which drew heated public comment at open meetings. Citizen groups argued that the ordinance was unnecessary, was unlikely to impact the Chesapeake Bay in any measurable way, and imposed costly regulatory restrictions on private property owners. The two Republican members of the 2007 Board argued that the CBPO’s costs and impacts on property owners outweighed its possible benefits. After more than two years of pushing the ordinance, the Democratic Board of Supervisors sustained lasting political damage from the CBPO despite failing to pass it before the November elections.
Third, the Democratic majority’s redistricting plan backfired. For well over a decade, Loudoun has been polarized between geographical interests on the eastern and western ends of the county. Yet primarily due to restrictive zoning in western Loudoun, most population growth has been on the eastern end of the county, forcing major changes in last year’s redistricting process. In a highly partisan plan, the Democratic Board attempted to preserve two or three “western” seats on the Board. However, the population centers of these new districts were no longer strictly western. In November, three seats which had been reliably Democrat or Independent for the last several local elections went Republican, giving the GOP an unexpected 9-0 Board.
A Strong Republican Organization Helps, Too
In addition to these three missteps by their Board, the 2011 Democratic candidates faced a well-organized and unified local Republican party. Factions among local Republicans that had publicly opposed each other in prior local elections called a truce, resulting in near universal support for the Republican nominees. Republicans ran candidates for every partisan office. They out organized and outperformed their counterparts in every district. Additionally, in three of the nine Board of Supervisors races, Republicans substantially outraised and outspent their opponents.
Now, with not a single Democrat or Independent on the Board, nine Republicans have the job of governing the highest average household income county in the nation. The GOP base is poised to insist on an immediate tax rate reduction. Board members also face tough decisions about whether to obligate taxpayers to fund the extension of Metro Rail to Dulles. And, while growth has slowed since 2003/2004, when Loudoun was the fastest growing county in America, it still remains the fastest growing county in Virginia, with all the pressures on infrastructure that such growth produces. If the new Loudoun Board of Supervisors governs sensibly and remains essentially unified in facing these challenges, it could build the Republican brand in Northern Virginia, contributing to future Republican victories, not just in Loudoun, but statewide.
E M Barner is a conservative activist with professional experience in both Richmond and Washington DC. She makes her home in Loudoun County, along with her husband and their dog, Coco.
Table 1: Loudoun Election History
Year Board Makeup
2011 9R
2007 5D / 2R / 2I
2003 7R / 1D / 1I
1999 4D / 4R / 2I
1995 7R / 1D / 1I
1991 6R / 2D / 1I
Table 2: Board of Supervisors Election 2011 – Counties over 250,000 residents
County / Party Make-up (Majority %)
Chesterfield 3R / 1D / 1I (60%)
Fairfax 7D / 3R (70%)
Henrico 3R / 2D (60%)
Loudoun 9R (100%)
Prince William 6R / 2D (75%)
