Light rail referendum in Virginia Beach – When?
By Brian Kirwin | Sunday, January 29th, 2012 | PoliticsVirginia Beach City Council is kicking around a few ideas about holding a referendum on light rail in Virginia Beach. A few have some good ideas, a few have some bad ones. The odd thing is they probably have the data to lead them to the answer if they’d ask for it.
First, they should reject with a chuckle Barbara Henley’s idea, reported in an excellent story in the Virginian-Pilot.
” Councilwoman Barbara Henley proposed wording a question to ask voters for guidance – “Should the City Council continue to pursue light rail?” for example – instead of asking for a direct yes or no on specifics.”
That’s a complete waste of time. If it wins, opponents would demand another referendum to actually build light rail instead of “pursuing” it. We’d be right where we already are. And if no, there’s really no way back. I think it would pass overwhelmingly and not mean a thing.
Then there is this fun ploy:
“I am not willing to support holding a light-rail referendum until we’re able to tell voters how much it will cost and how it will be paid for,” said Councilman John Moss, a skeptic on the issue.
As if Moss would support it if he had every last detail? Bah. Once he got costs, he’d likely say the costs are underestimated, and at the end of the day, Moss opposes light rail. He did before his election. No study is changing his mind, and only fools believe otherwise.
It is funny how the opponents of light rail have clamored for a referendum, but suddenly oppose having one in 2012. That might be telling.
“If the electorate in November is made up of more young people and more minorities – the groups of people likely to come out for Obama – I think that probably does help supporters of light rail,” (Pollster Quentin) Kidd said. “Those are the people who like the idea of light rail but would be less likely to come out specifically for a referendum vote in other years.”
I think opponents salivate over having a light rail referendum with Ken Cuccinelli potentially on the ballot in 2013. Cuccinelli opposed light rail when he served in the Senate, and it’s easy to assume that he’d continue that opposition with a much greater spotlight.
2014 is somewhat of a mystery, as turnout would be driven by what happens with the US Senate race and the Second Congressional District race. It could help. It could hurt. It’s tough to tell. But for the most part, turnout for these races doesn’t vary that widely.
But the pollster could do more than just guess based on the demographic predictions of 2012.
Take the data from his poll considering light rail in Virginia Beach. Apply likely voter models for November in 2012, 2013, and 2014.
That’ll give you a strong delta for how much variance there is based on turnout. Could be that on a percentage basis, we aren’t talking a great deal of difference. Or maybe there is. It’s easy to find out how much.
A poll could also be done for voters who vote without fail in every November election. That absolute core vote would be a high percentage of turnout in odd numbered years. If the core is positive, you’re ok, but if it is strongly opposed, supporters would want as many voters as possible to dilute that opposition if you want it to pass. If the goal is to defeat it, you’d want that core make up as much of the voting turnout as possible.
As Council debates in theory what the best course of action might be, effective polling can tell them what the likely scenarios might be, and then supporters and opponents can make their cases about if and when to hold a referendum based on real data.
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The right wants to jeer him. The left wants to censor him. Moderates usually want both. Brian Kirwin is a political consultant and public relations strategist in Virginia Beach with a lightning-rod flair. Brian also serves on the VB Arts & Humanities Commission and frequently appears on Hampton Roads theatrical stages, if only to prove that all actors aren’t liberals. Kirwin’s columns stir up debate and hit the political scene with no punches pulled.
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17 Responses to "Light rail referendum in Virginia Beach – When?"
What exactly would we be voting on? If it’s the Locally Preferred Alternative (LPA), that won’t be chosen until late 2013. That means no referendum until 2014.
However, The V-P story makes things pretty clear (thanks, Mike): it would be an advisory referendum. Given Virginia law (per Bob Tata’s bill), it would take General Assembly action to shut down the Virginia Beach process.
I think Voters have quite a bit of good information to inform their opinion and their vote, information they did not have when they voted in 1999. We own the ROW so no one need speculate on the cost of acquiring the land. We know actual costs for the Norfolk system; incease it from $50 M per mile, to $60 M per mile, and we have an accurate estimate of the cost. And HRT has become a well functioning and capable organization under the capable leadership of Phil Shucet.
So let’s vote in November. Of course it is advisory, but in the end, Council will be informed by the vote, and they will still have to make the final decision based upon the results of the study and the cost estimate.
This issue is a transformative given the crisis in transportation in this Commonwealth. At this point in time, it is clear that new highways will be severely limited in future, and public transit will be required to increase mobility for our citizens. Let’s find out if our voters want to embrace the future, or recede to the past.
I think we are informed and smart enough to make the right decision.
Is there an option not to put light-rail in? I guess that explains why it is important in how and where the questions are asked, rather than how they are answered.
As for light-rail and high-speed rail, it doesn’t matter because we’re living in a top-down government now. A fascist government, where Mike Barret’s opinion counts more than a thousand voters.
Is the issue how we’re going to shove this fiasco down the taxpayer’s throat? Otherwise, this is a mute point. As the government and their cronies tell us to shut up and take it because we’re going to tell you how much you love light rail.
The sooner we get it on the ballot, the better. Also, in a Presidential election year, the voter turn out is more apt to be a better representative sample of the greater population.
If the answer is yes, then full speed ahead. If the answer is no, we can stop spending money on it. It might be advisory, but any member of City Council who fails to follow the “advice” might do so at the peril of facing the wrath of the voters next time their seat comes up for election.
One thing I think voters do still need is a realistic estimate of how much of an annual subsidy the rail line would need to operate. I do not think ridership fares will cover operational costs and continuing maintenance, so how much will it cost us every year after it is built?
A Moratorium on light-rail in Virginia Beach is the only sensible course of action.
Afterall Mr Barrett’s fellow democrats all claim that because of man-made CO2, Virginia Beach will be under 50 feet of water sometime next week.
Much better to have a complete moratorium on ALL constructiob until the issue is settled.
According to Barry, Al, “Hockeystick”, and other democrat intelligentsia; the icecaps are melting and the oceans are rising!!! We need to spend trillions of dollars fixing the climate. No need to waste money on Virginia Beach light-rail. Better to spend the money on boats for the citizens of Virginia Beach.
If you are quiet, you can hear the ocean rising.
I agree with Little David; let it rip, let’s vote, and if a clear majority wants to proceed, let’s do just that.
Frankly, that is what happens in our republic. Elected officials do the will of the people. The absurd comment above about fascism is most perplexing given the fact that most of us want transportation to serve us, to serve our businesses, and to promote economic development and prosperity.
Can you imagine America remaining as a great nation without efficient transportation? This is not fascism, it is democracy. The effort of the conservative republicans to turn transportion over to private investors and international conglomerates disturbs me, but that is more about how we meet the need, not whether there is a need or not.
Frankly, to me, either we reverse this perverse attitude that government is inherently evil, or our nation will regress to that which occured under the Articles of Confederation.
LD,
You act as though your vote will matter. Most likely light-rail has been projected in your Master Plans. You don’t have a choice, we’re going back to trolley’s that was replaced by vehicles.
I’m not going to waste my time but the assumption that light-rail is within your MASTER PLAN is likely…most that I have seen have light rails. It’s just a matter of shoving it down our throats and telling you, you want it.
Now, we need to get some studies from the colleges and the news media to act like its the greatest thing since slice bread.
Mike,
Central planning did not make this nation great, it’s been tried in nearly every other nation. But it is surely taking it down.
The government isn’t evil…it’s extremely inefficient and we have a greedy cronism that’s looting our treasuries. Mussolini ensured the private sector was on time. Wasn’t fascist Italy where corporations worked with government to ensure the needs of the government was met.
What board do you chair again?
John,
Two points of your’s.
First, there will be other options, and a few different LRT options. That’s why I’d wait until we have a LPA, which would be too late for even a 2013 referendum.
Second, if you believe central planning and capitalism are mutually exclusive, look at Japan. A country with few natural resources has the world’s 3rd largest economy largely due to central planning.
John Jackson,
You seem to assume that studies by universities are going to 100% support the project.
ODU did a study on existing light rail systems. In their study the example was given that the amount of money that went into subsidizing the system in St Louis was enough to buy each and every low income rider of it with a brand new Toyota Prius every five years, pay for the fuel, pay for its maintenance and have money left over.
But as long as any study comes to the conclusion you want it to come to, then it is a good one, right?
I looked at that study with an open mind and it caused me to question whether light rail for Tidewater is a good idea or not. As I travel around the nation, I do see areas where commuter rail is a success and popular, however I believe that even with the Virginia Beach extension, the system here is going to be too limited to appeal to enough citizens. Perhaps if it was greatly extended to places such as the Norfolk Naval base it could succeed, but I doubt such an extension will ever be constructed.
Personally, I am leaning towards voting against it when it comes up. I might be convinced to vote for it if an irrevocable commitment is made by all the government entities involved to extend the system within a reasonable time period, otherwise I view it as just being a waste of money.
John, you simply ignore history. I have two examples; rail roads and the Interstate Highway system. If you can’t acknowledge the profound positive effects of both of these partnerships between the public and private sectors, you are simply an ideologue, not an entrepreneur.
Put the question to a vote in November 2012 but make sure the language asked if the citizens are “willing to spend upwards of 1.2 billion in federal, state and local taxes to build it and millions more to operate and maintain it every year.” Be honest and ask them… The voters are not to be feared.
I support lightrail but question the costs involved…
William, since the opponents have pointed to the results of the last referendum to prevent the extension of light rail to Virginia Beach, why not use exactly the same question on the ballot that was used in 1999, modified to clarify which segment is being considered.
If so, the ballot question would read….”Should the City Council aopt an ordinance approving the development and financing of the proposed extension of light rail transit from the station at Newtown Road in Norfolk to Virginia Beach?”
Now some would say that is not specific enough, but frankly, it was good enough last time. Fairness would call for a similar question on the ballot. No doubt there will be plenty of discussion about costs and benefits leading up to the question on the ballot.
If that is the language, I have to vote “No.” You can’t expect folks to vote “Yes” if you leave the costs out of the question. As a supporter of lightrail, we really have to ask an honest question instead of wordsmithing the question then wondering why it failed or having to ignore the results of the vote. The 1999 question has been used to beat up City Council for over a decade and we do not want to go through that again. Be honest with the question and educate the voters. The results might surprise you.
I wanted a new Corvette and voted to buy one until I learned what it was going to cost me. I can’t afford it… No new car for me. I was honest with myself which seems the opposite of what we are doing with the “question” that is being proposed before the voters.
Well, for me, this is an advisory referendum, with detail left to Council after the results of the studies are in. But we all know the cost will be about $60 M per mile, but how much of that is state and federal, and how much is local is yet to be determined. Further, how far into VB has not been determined either. So we either sit on the sidelines as other cities with the commitment to move ahead get the federal money, or we give up a place near the front of the line. Council should have the opportunity to get advice from the voters.
City Council has the opportunity to get advice from the citizens everyday via email, fax, telephone and inperson.
With the ref, we are asking is: “do the voters want to build, operate and fund a lightrail system in Va. Beach?” A simple “Yes” or “No” answer from the voters is what council needs to hear. Put it on the November 2012 ballot and let them vote.
I have no problem with that wording either, nor with the timing you propose. Let us vote!
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