2012 Predictions
By Bearing Drift | Saturday, December 31st, 2011 | Policy, PoliticsWell, looking back at our 2011 predictions, Bearing Drift authors did pretty darn good, despite no one coming even close to getting the Cardinals in the World Series.
Onward to 2012!
Regarding baseball, Sic Semper T, as ever, has the best outlook:
“The Tigers made it halfway to my prediction last year by winning the AL Central and advancing to the ALCS. I’ll put my money on the Motor City Kitties to go all the way in 2012 with Goochland’s Justin Verlander earning the World Series MVP to add to his rapidly expanding awards case.”
And, in football, Norm thinks the Saints win the Super Bowl over New England.
For hockey, it will be the Chicago Blackhawks over the Boston Bruins, following a bruising, but exciting conference championship against their rivals the Detroit Red Wings and Philadelphia Flyers, respectively.
Our resident illustrator, Wade Brumett, has some of the funniest thoughts of the coming 2012:
* Mathematicians scramble to name the previously unknown number to describe the new debt ceiling under the re-elected Obama administration.
* China lands a man on Dish Network’s satellite.
* North Korea stuffs Kim Jong Il in a missle and lands him on Dish Network’s satellite.
* NASA catches a ride on a Russian spacecraft to Dish Network’s satelite, overloading it and crashing into Mountain Run Creek, a subsidiary of the Chesapeake Bay. Within hours occupy “FILL IN THE BLANK” organizers surround the site and start to DISH it out.
* Mathematicians scramble to name the previously unknown number to describe the American unemployed worker, which is only larger by the number of illegal aliens with voter id cards.
* Newt Gingrich appears on Hannity every night to complain how he was dissed in Virginia by Shaun Kenney
* Bearing Drift Magazine wins Va Press, the Pulitzer, and a razzie award for its cutting edge view of Newts in Virginia, and why they don’t deserve Federal protection
However, Bearing Drift collectively has some more serious thoughts on politics. Here’s what we actually think will happen in the political world in 2012:
Virginia
* The constitutional amendment to protect property rights passes both houses of the General Assembly and wins an overwhelming majority on the ballot in November, even in places like Arlington and Alexandria.
* Virginia goes into extra innings on the Governor’s Budget as Senate Republicans crack on their support, and House Republicans have a minor conservative revolt over the additional spending of $8 billion in the biennium. After demonstrations of conservative virtue, this budget too shall pass…
* The General Assembly will punt on uranium mining.
* Much to Lieutenant Governor Bolling’s disappointment, there will be few bills that require a 20-20 tie breaker.
* No Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2013 announces his/her intention to run until the end of the summer.
* The Obenshain/Bell race for Attorney General starts off slowly but becomes increasingly nasty behind the scenes.
* Del. Joe Morrissey will get his law license back.
National
* House Republicans depose John Boehner as Speaker. Eric Cantor is our favorite to succeed him, but the vote will be very close.
* Bob Marshall leaps into the GOP Senate Primary and David McCormick fails to get on the primary ballot.
* Allen wins the 2012 primary and survives (does not win — but survives) a scathing 2012 race with Tim Kaine, thus re-capturing the U.S. Senate seat he lost in 2006.
* Allen’s win over Kaine is part of a 6 seat GOP pick up in the Senate.
* All of Virginia’s congressmen are re-elected. No surprises this cycle.
* Obama wins a second term over Mitt Romney. Virginia goes blue for the second time in four years.
* Supreme Court delays issuing Obamacare decision until after the November elections.
* The national debt will surpass $16 trillion
International
* In an effort to rescue the Euro, the EU and the United States under NATO support will bomb and invade Iran — with European ground support and American air support. The liberation will take days; the occupation of the Straits of Hormuz will take years.
* Iraq descends into civil war, but in the American press it will be passed off as “sectarian violence” and little else.
* Chavez loses power in Venezuela.
* There will be a military coup in North Korea
* Assad survives in Syria
Economics
* America’s economy will chug along at a modest but tenuous 3.2% GDP growth. There will be no second recession.
* The Eurozone starts talk of splitting in two
* The Japanese economy, after years of stagnation, finally begins to lift as the Chinese economy tanks. The effects on the American economy will be negligible.
* Brazil will become the 4th largest market for goods and capital in the world, next to China, America, and India.
Happy New Year?
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Bearing Drift has been providing an online conservative voice in Virginia politics since 2004. The name describes relative motion at sea - without bearing drift, you need to move to the right to avoid a collision! If it looks like the ship-of-state is going to wreck, move right; you can't go wrong!!!
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Comments
17 Responses to "2012 Predictions"
I also predict that if the emergency legislation being bandied about to correct Virginia’s presidential ballot fiasco does manage to pass the House, it will find Senate Democrats extracting considerable budget concessions from the GOP, leading to a House revolt and an overtime budget session the likes of which we haven’t seen since 2004.
Romney will defeat Obama and carry Virginia as part of his victory. And there will be no revolt against Boehner.
Marshall throws his hat in the ring for Lt Gov.. Not likely but that would start a revolution.
Yeah, NONE of this sounds encourging…
I think Kaine has a better chance of beating Allen than Obama does of carrying VA.
Virginia Tech wins ACC title in 2012
Redskins go 8-8 in 2012 (ok maybe a little wishful thinking here)
Dow finishes 2012 over 13,000. Unemployment drops but not that much.
Orioles continue to disappoint. ODU football makes final four in I-AA. No prediction on how much of the year Lindsay Lohan spends in jail.
NFL
1. The Baltimore Ravens defeat the New Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl.
2. The Detroit Lions’ Jim Schwartz is named Coach Of The Year.
INTERNATIONAL
1. David Cameron’s government falls in Britain when the Liberal Democrats leave the ruling coalition. However, the Conservatives take a majority in the House of Commons in the subsequent election.
2. Egypt abrogates the Camp David Accords. The United States Congress responds by terminating nearly all aid to Egypt.
3. Robert Mugabe’s death triggers a power struggle in Zimbabwe.
FEDERAL
1. Republicans pickup 10 seats in the United States Senate.
2. Scott Rigell wins reelection with over 60% of the vote.
LOCAL
1. Having learned all the wrong lessons from the 2011 special election, the VBTA’s candidates get pummeled running for the Virginia Beach City Council.
2. There’s a rugby scrum for the open Kempsville District Council seat, which everyone has targeted.
In addition, Bob Dyer faces a four-way in his fight for reelection to a third term in Centerville District.
3. In a crowded field, Will Sessoms wins reelection as Mayor on a plurality, his vote total between 30%-35%.
4. Glenn Davis loses in Rose Hall District.
nternational
1. The Eurozone splits
2. Isreal attacks Iran
3. North Korean military coup
US
1. Romney loses to Obama (Loses the south)
2. The US falls into a deeper recession
VA.
1. Bolling runs for reelection
2. Bolling votes in favor of the dems at least once.
3. Cooch wins Obamacare suit
Local
1. Bobby Scott retires. Mayor Mckinley price replaces him. Chuck Smith loses by 40+ points.
2. Chairman Gary Byler beats Karen Hurd by over 25% for second district chairman
3. Ben Loyola runs for Mayor of VB. Loses by 15% to sessoms.
4. Scott Taylor runs for LG
There will be no revolt against Boehner.
Obama will win re-election but I am less sure that he will win Virginia. Obama will not win the south. If he does, that means he has Reagan 1984 landslide. I don’t see that happening.
Delegate Marshall is gearing up to run for something but would be foolish to try a run against Allen, and he’s not a foolish man.
The Supreme Court won’t delay their opinion on Obamacare but it won’t matter, Obama will be re-elected.
sadly, I think Lovettsville Lady (& others) may be correct: OBambi wins re-election. Yes, I see many paths for his defeat, but the Republicans under any of our leaders, always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
but if Lovettsville Lady is correct that the Supremes strike down most of Obamacare, then that is good news indeed.
BD predicts:
“Allen wins the 2012 primary and survives (does not win — but survives) a scathing 2012 race with Tim Kaine
Obama wins a second term over Mitt Romney. Virginia goes blue for the second time in four years.”
BD bares its soul and says Virginians believe the country will do wonderfully with an unchecked Obama running the country from the WH and ignoring Congress and the courts. However they will oddly also choose a Bush era retread over an Obama cheerleader in the Senate. The weasel words actually reveal your true opinion that Kaine will thrive more than Allen will survive.
I obviously have been sleeping the past year since I saw no warnings or handwringing from anyone at BD (unless MB is now the new owner) that the whole political momentum had died and Virginians were so sick of McDonnell, Bolling and Cuccinelli that a return to Warner Kaine and Obama was sheer relief to them. Even if you are down on Romney (and apparently Allen), it would be no great reflection on the RPV to lose a state dominated by the Repubs. Speaks volumes about your real opinion of McDonnell or at least his (non) influence on Virginia voters in advancing conservatism. Or do VA voters think he is a Democrat? I seem to remember your sour musings against Tea party movment conservatives (lumped unfairly with self appointed and phantom leaders) as the source of all ills but the elections of 2012 (in your view), despite the nomination of a Republican Establishment candidate, came to disaster. A disaster sharply at variance with the elections of 2009 and 2010 where conservatives came out in spite of the Repub party and made Repubs the majority party in the country and elected Repubs in a landslide here in VA. Why didn’t Repubs in Nov 2012 come up with voters to replace the ones they ejected?
So here we are at the start of 2012. Did you spend 2011 showing any internal polls that foretold this debacle? Did you sound the alarm that McDonnell et al were failing to convince VA voters that their way was better than the leftists and urge them and the RPV to greater effort? Are you assuming that conservatives will go third party or stay home? Or are you simply saying that Romney can’t win VA no matter how much McDonnell helps? If so then why not come out and say that before it’s too late? And let us know which Repub candidate you think would carry VA in 2012 if they got the nomination.
Totally ridiculous.
Ciao.
My St Louis Cardinals do not repeat in 2012. I am pretty hopeful they will remain competitive, however it took a miracle for them to win in 2011 and without Albert Pujols, the miracles are going to be harder to produce. But who knows, Adam Wainwright is coming back and he was missing for all of 2011. If he returns to form and Chris Carpenter continues to deliver as he did at the end of the season?
Go Cardinals. I’ll be praying for another miracle.
As for the Angels, they’re just lucky George Steinbrenner has passed on or Albert Pujols would be headed for the Yankees.
Ya know val, you really need to lighten up.
Scott Taylor runs for UN Secretary General.
Loyola runs for House of Delegates in what ever district has an easy Republican primary.
Bolling challenges Cooch to a duel to determine which one is running for Gov.
Cahterine Crabill will run for both the state chair of the rpv and the nut-jobs league.
Oh, for cryin’ out loud, Val. Get a grip.
With Cantor and McDonnell actively campaigning with Allen, Allen will win. However, it will be extremely tough, and you have to admit the demographic shifts in the commonwealth bear that out.
Heck, I’d love to as easily predict a GOP win as I would in, say, Oklahoma. But our commonwealth has changed – particularly in Northern Virginia.
We’re going to see the president plenty here in Virginia and right at his side will be smiling Tim.
That matters.
It’s going to be a tough fight.
My hope is that Allen, Cantor, McDonnell, Bolling, and Cuccinelli can win the state for “name the GOP nominee”, but it will be tough.
At this point, with all the in-fighting and desire to see someone “other than Romney”, I just really feel that conservatives are a fickle bunch this year – not ready to get behind anything that even smacks of establishment…and that will be our downfall.
Dear JR,
That was going to be my last post but I do want to acknowledge your relatively specific reply – really the first one I have gotten. Your overall points are reasonably valid and I have mentioned them myself. However, I, like many people, am concerned at the passivity seen in Repubs (sometimes called the Bob Michel Syndrome). I don’t see the situation as lost yet. Furthermore, I don’t see Dems display this attitude ever; they are always pursuing an angle fair or foul. If we take your logic and write off most of the voting public why bother to field any candidate ever again? Now that the Dems are scared they will take measures after 2012 with the media to ensure that no opponent ever dares to surface – just look at the treatment accorded Repub candidates since 2010.
Best of luck to you in whatever other ventures you move to. Regards Val.
I predict that the brand new Teppanyaki Grill Buffet will have an outstanding year. It is located at 49 West Mercury Blvd, Hampton in the strip shopping center next to King Street. Great food. Lunch was $16.36 for two of us yesterday. Easy to find. Just look for the parking lot stuffed with cars.
Two days before Christmas, I was rear-ended by a 18 wheeler carrying 50,000 pounds of brussel sprouts. If I can walk away from that then Barry can lose this year. If ain’t over till the fat lady sings. Or in my case perhaps the fat angel.
If Obama wins Virginia again…which could happen, probably not against Romney…I don’t see Allen bucking that trend to beat Kaine. That seems an odd way for voters to split a ticket.
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