Virginia likes Newt over Mitt, sort of. But will Newt even be on the ballot?

A Quinnipiac poll of registered voters finds that Virginia is still for Newt, but that those same poll respondents think Mitt Romney would be more likely to beat President Obama in the general election:

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich jumps into a slight 30 – 25 percent lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among Virginia Republicans in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. No other candidate tops 9 percent.

In a head-to-head matchup, Gingrich tops Romney by a larger 47 – 39 percent margin.

Romney, however, runs better against President Barack Obama, getting 44 percent among all voters to Obama’s 42 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. The president tops Gingrich 46 – 41 percent.

Gingrich’s unfavorables hold him back against Obama. That’s not to say, however, that the President is viewed more kindly:

President Obama has a divided 45 – 47 percent favorability rating, 46 – 46 percent among independent voters, the key voting bloc in close elections.

Voters disapprove 51 – 42 percent of the job he is doing as president and by 53 – 41 percent Virginia voters say he does not deserve a second term in the Oval Office.

Which means that Democratic Sen. Phil Puckett was on to something when he very publicly distanced himself from the President in the run-up to last month’s General Assembly elections.

But where is Gingrich’s support coming from? The internals tell an interesting tale.

Gingrich leads among men (35 percent), Conservatives (33 percent), Evangelicals (34 percent) and…tea party supporters (41 percent). And in a head-to-head match-up with Romney, Gingrich pulls 65 percent of the tea party vote.

Yes, tea partiers, the same folks who Noemie Emery informs us have turned against Gingrich nationally and rallied behind Mitt Romney. Except when they haven’t, and don’t show inclinations to do so (yet) in Virginia.

Gingrich’s lead could be ephemeral. It could also be irrelevant if he fails to make the Virginia primary ballot.

One other data point to consider from the poll: the Senate race is a dead heat (or it is as Quinnipiac has framed it):

The Virginia U.S. Senate race remains too close to call with Republican George Allen at 44 percent and Democrat Tim Kaine at 42 percent.

“Two popular former governors mean Virginia’s U.S. Senate race could be a real cliff- hanger. This is the fourth Quinnipiac University poll showing the 2012 race too close to call,” said [Peter] Brown.

It’s a contest between Pepsi and Coke, with the deciding votes held by those who like RC.

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About the author

Norman Leahy

Norm Leahy has written about Virginia and national politics online since 2002, beginning with One Man's Trash (OMT), and continuing through Bacon's Rebellion (both the blog and the e-zine), Sic Semper Tyrannis, NBC12's Decision Virginia, Richmond.com and Tertium Quids. He is the chief blogger at "The Score" and a producer of "The Score" radio show as well as being a Washington Examiner contributor.