Disaffected Jews and the Republican opportunity

Barack Obama’s standing among the American Jewish community has plummeted as a result of his hostility to Israel and its elected leaders and his weakness in addressing the threat of hostile Islamist regimes.

Obama has publicly denounced Israel for building communities on its own territory while remaining deafeningly silent about the Palestinians’ continuous and ongoing violations of their already-existing treaty obligations.  Obama famously snubbed Prime Minister Netanyahu by making him enter the White House through the rear entrance, leaving him waiting for two hours while he ate dinner in the White House residence, and then denying him the joint press conference customarily conducted with visiting heads of state.  Obama has refused to take tough action to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons even though Iran has announced its desire to wipe Israel from the map.

As a result of his hostility to Israel and weakness in recognizing and facing the threat posed by Iran and other Islamist regimes and organizations, Obama has gone from receiving 78% of the Jewish vote in 2008 to having an abysmal approval rating among American Jews of only 45%.

Jews make up only 1.5% of the American population and about 3% of the voting population.  However, Jews contribute nearly half of the money raised by Democrats, making them a crucial constituency.  So, while losing Jewish votes will matter only in marginal states (most notably Florida, a notoriously purple state where Jews make up a larger percentage of voters), a lack of confidence in Obama among Jewish voters could be devastating to Obama’s fundraising efforts and those of the congressional candidates who must run on a ticket with him.

Many Jews who currently disfavor Obama will nonetheless vote for him as the lesser perceived evil as compared to the Republican candidate, who will be demonized by the Democrats and their “news” media by the time the election comes around in November 2012.   How many Jews will do so will be determined in large part by who the Republicans choose as their candidate.  Most American Jews have liberal sensibilities but, because of Obama’s poor record on issues of importance to the Jewish community, many will be open-minded in this election about a Republican who is perceived to be “reasonable.”

In that light, Mitt Romney would be far better positioned to take advantage of the wedge between Obama and the Jewish community than Newt Gingrich, who is perceived by many Jews to be radical right, or Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann, who are perceived to have an evangelical Christian religious agenda.  Ron Paul would drive virtually all disaffected Jews back to Obama as a result of his positions on ending aid to Israel and allowing Iran to gain nuclear weapons.  (Note that I am providing an analysis of the mindset of the Jewish community generally and not my own views, which are more politically conservative than most of my fellow Jews.  I’m not a fan of Romney, but objectively speaking he would be the best candidate to take advantage of the opportunity to win the support of the Jews who have been alienated by Obama.)

The opportunity provided by Obama’s poor standing among American Jews has not been lost on the Republican National Committee.  This week, the RNC released a strategy memo noting the following:

The reasons for this decline [in support for Obama among Jewish voters] have been well documented, from the President’s assertions on Israel’s pre-1967 borders; to the President’s on-again, off-again opposition to new sanctions against Iran; to careless comments by the President and members of his administration about Israel and its leaders. What’s less documented however is how this decline in support could impact the President’s candidacy in critical swing states in the Electoral College.

Based on turnout estimates for 2012 and historical voting strength of Jewish voters as measured in exit polling, as many as 450,000 Jewish voters will cast a ballot in Florida. Between 200,000 -250,000 Jewish voters will go to the polls in Pennsylvania, over 100,000 will do so in Ohio and Michigan, over 50,000 in Virginia and North Carolina, and nearly 50,000 in Nevada. Even if the President does better at the polls next year than his current job approval ratings it is highly unlikely that he will return to his 2008 levels. No losses among voters in any of these states can be considered trivial. North Carolina was carried by only 14,000 votes in 2008, and no one can forget how close Florida was in 2000.

To address these issues, Obama held a highly publicized early Hanukkah party in which he showed his ignorance of Jewish traditions by lighting all of the candles two weeks before the holiday even began.  (Traditionally, all of the candles are not lit until the 8th and last day of Hanukkah.)  He is also running a deceptive ad on Facebook  falsely claiming that several of the Republican candidates would cut off all aid to Israel.  None of these tactics are likely to work in winning back Jewish voters who are smart enough to see him for who he is and for what his policies have been throughout his tenure.  The only question that remains is whether the Republicans will nominate a candidate and adopt a campaign strategy that can appeal to these voters enough to bring them into a Republican camp that they have been indoctrinated over a lifetime not to trust.

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About the author

Ken Falkenstein

Ken Falkenstein has been a staffer in the United States Senate and the Virginia House of Delegates. He has managed political campaigns. He was a military intelligence analyst in the U.S. Army in West Germany during the Cold War. He is currently a civil litigation attorney with Poole Mahoney, P.C. in Virginia Beach. But his concern for his kids' future is what most informs his writing.