PPP: Kaine 47%, Allen 42%
By Shaun Kenney | Thursday, December 15th, 2011 | Politics, Virginia
…and before we get all verklepmt, O Radtke supporters, your candidate gets mauled 49-33 by Kaine and has a 10/22 favorable to unfavorable rating. ’Nuff said — this will probably be the last independent poll we see with Radtke’s name in it.
There’s a couple of highlights here that are worth pulling out. These PPP numbers look solid at first glance (would have loved to see a breakdown of samples by region) so it’s not going to do any good attacking the poll. (full poll numbers here)
Some key takeaways:
VIRGINIA VOTERS HAVE MADE UP THEIR MINDS ON KAINE AND ALLEN — you either like them or you don’t, with both candidates having very similar favorable and unfavorable numbers, with undecideds hovering at 20%. Not much daylight there.
ALLEN DOES BETTER WITH “SOUTHERNERS” with 2/3rds of those polled willing to identify themselves as “southerners”. Before folks go off half-cocked on the idea that this is offensive, or that the MSM is or the Dems are trying to brand Allen as a racist yet again, keep this in mind — Mudcat Saunders and Jim Webb embraced the idea of southernness (our southron-ness, if you prefer) both in their campaign approach as well as Webb’s tome “Born Fighting” on the history of the Scotch-Irish in America. The Harvard-educated Tim Kaine has his work cut out for him if he is to identify with Virginia’s DNA.
MEN DON’T LIKE TIM KAINE… as in 48% of all men really don’t like Tim Kaine. 42% of women like Kaine, vs. 36% disliking the former DNC chairman. For those counting at home, that’s a 6-point difference. Husbands, talk to your wives…
KAINE HAS A SLIGHT EDGE OVER ALLEN AMONG INDEPENDENTS — but within the margin of error (4.0%).
TIM KAINE HAS A SERIOUS YOUTH PROBLEM. Now these are probably the most interesting numbers of the bunch. Youth prefer Allen over Kaine, as Allen’s favorables vs. unfavorables are 40/30 while Kaine’s are at 30/43. This is a massive shift from 2008 where the youth vote practically elected Barack Obama. This is a huge first for Allen’s campaign, though not surprising given the jobs market. Allen’s consistent hammering on jobs, jobs, jobs appears to be resonating with those looking for them.
Your only ray of light if you’re Tim Kaine? 18 thru 29 year olds still vote for Kaine by a 10-point margin, despite how they feel about the candidates themselves… which is more than compensated for by a 13 point gap among seniors in Allen’s favor.
RADTKE’S NEGATIVES PUT HER OUT OF THE RACE. As the PPP numbers (with a somewhat melancholy note, one might add) point out:
On the very, very off chance that Jamie Radtke were to nab the Republican nomination, she trails Kaine by a 49-33 margin.
With her negatives outweighing her positives by double-digit margins, Radtke is done for 2012. It will be nearly impossible for her to win the primary contest, much less the general election against Kaine.
For Allen, there are two items to point out here: (1) the national climate is still driving the train — so long as Obama bests the field of GOP challengers, those coattails will transfer to Kaine’s base of support, and (2) there is considerable room for improvement among women and youth voters. Senior citizens are overwhelmingly supporting Allen by 13pts — that is a constituency locked up at the moment.
For Kaine, these are good preliminary numbers… but there are cracks and fissures throughout this poll. Seniors are positively hostile to Kaine. Young voters don’t think Allen’s such a bad guy. Moreover, Kaine will have a difficult time replicating the formula for success that propelled Mark Warner to the Governor’s Mansion in ’01, Webb to the U.S. Senate in ’06, and Warner again to the U.S. Senate in ’08 — that being to break even in Southwest Virginia and drive up numbers in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.
Such numbers for Kaine — even with a 5 point lead now — looks like thin ice on a 70 degree day in springtime once you dig in.
Tags:
Contribute for Conservatism!
Share this post
About the author
Shaun Kenney is the Chairman of the Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors, former Communications Director for the Republican Party of Virginia, and an active blogger since 2002. Shaun lives in Thomas Jefferson's backyard with his wife, six children, and a modest attempt at a farm in Kents Store, Virginia.
We're 75% there! Thank you to everyone who has so far contributed! Just $2000 to go!
Comments
18 Responses to "PPP: Kaine 47%, Allen 42%"
Not to mention that the margin of error in this poll is 4%. That makes the ice even thinner.
…or thicker, if those margins go the other way.
Wonder how much longer Radtke’s paid advisors can keep her in the race ?
Fairfax isn’t southern. Neither is Norfolk. And the kids I’ve talked to take more the OWS side of things. Which leaves Allen with the good ole boys, and scared retirees who are warily watching Boner bash their very existence. They aren’t likely to vote for one party rule.
Kaine has to be viewed as the incumbent so he must get above 50% and stay there to be the favorite. Having said that, its always difficult to run as a loser retread. Allen has to hope for a landslide in VA for the Repubs in 2012.
LOL that the first comment has to be an attack on Radtke.
Yeah, she’s so inconsequential that you just can’t stop obsessing over her.
Looking at this differently, the much-vaunted George Allen, with his huge money and name recognition advantage, only pulls 9 points ahead of Radtke. How embarrassing.
Hypothetically, Shaun… let’s just say Allen drops out of the race. Personal reasons, he gets the Herman Cain treatment (women fabricating stories about affairs) illness, what-have-you, doesn’t matter, he’s out. Are you willing to help bring Radtke’s “unfavorables” up, or are you going to throw in the towel and hand over a U.S. Senate seat to Kaine? We all know who you’re in the tank for – who’s your second pick, or do you even have one?
I’m serious. Post after post you and some of the others here keep pounding away at this Jamie can’t win routine… She’s not my first choice either, but I’d like to know if this all-or-nothing bit the “anybody-but-Allen-in-the-primary” crowd keeps getting accused of, runs both ways. So, would you be willing to give full-throated support to anybody but Allen?
If Allen drops out, the Cooch will be in the race within minutes, healing the RPV-TP rift by spitting in the dust and rubbing said mud on their eyes.
Interesting… As far as I know, he’s not in the running this go ’round. This was a hypothetical after all.
So Fat Dave doesn’t have a second choice in the field. Who else? I’ve heard Donner mentioned favorably a couple times around here.
In the mythic improbablity that has Allen getting run over by a train… I suspect Cuccinelli jumps in and rightly claims the mantle of frontrunner.
I would enthusiastically support Cuccinelli.
There is no way Cuccinelli would stay out of the race if Allen dies. And no, while I’d vote for Cuccinelli in the general, he’s not my first choice.
Someone I know that has been a hard core GOP volunteer and payed GOP consultant for 30 years said to me today they would rather vote for Obama than ….., one of the frontrunners in the GOP for President. I hope the Virginia TEA Party doesn’t feel the same way about Allen.
paid
Kathy, what Is ‘the tea party’? Last time I checked there wasn’t one. There are Tea Party movement activists aplenty but no party.. Yet. I do not speak for any TP group or anyone other than myself but I can confirm there are quite a few tp conservatives who feel the way about Allen as your paid friend/ consultant as a result of the way the primary is being hijacked.
As for “paid’ consultants, Allen is spending mucho dinero and the results are not winning over enough dissafected conservatives to bridge the divide between the reflexes of gop voters and the new breed of conservative who see what 6 years of Allen got fhem.
Whoa everybody! Nobody said they wanted Allen to die or get hit by a train! Heck, I just wanted to see if there’s any degree of reciprocity from Allen’s ardent supporters towards the other candidates. I asked hypothetically – if (for whatever reason) you can’t have Allen as the nominee, would you be willing to throw support behind any of the others? If not, why, and if so, which? Nobody needs to be killed off here… sheesh!
So far, two votes for A.G. Cuccinelli, who isn’t even a candidate for U.S. Senate.
Let me ask it a different way – will any of you pro-Allen folks sit out the election if you don’t get the candidate you want? Those of us who favor others in the primary get asked that often.
Edward, I bet you do. I know those that favor others are furious over the slights in this primary. I would be too if I were running and were shunned in debates. The real question I want to know is when or will our party be unified? By the way, I include the TEA Party in the GOP. Who in the TEA Party will be the leader in unity to beat Kaine, even if it means backing Allen?
Whoa, whoa, whoa, Edward. I’m just saying that if Allen were not in this race, Cuccinelli would be. Now, if both were hit by trains, one leaving Staunton at 6:30 am, and one leaving Newport News at 8:15 am, I’d support Donner at 4:45pm.
Leave your response