Allen: Tea Party Support at 59%
By Shaun Kenney | Tuesday, December 13th, 2011 | Politics, VirginiaThese are some hard hitting numbers coming from Public Policy Polling this evening. Overwhelmingly, Virginians are lock step behind former Speaker Newt Gingrich for the GOP nomination for President, former Governor George Allen for U.S. Senate, and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli for Governor in ’13.
Some highlights:
POTUS ’12 Numbers (Second Choice):
Bachmann: 8% (10%)
Gingrich: 41% (13%)
Huntsman: 3% (3%)
Johnson: 1% (2%)
Paul: 6% (9%)
Perry: 8% (8%)
Romney: 15% (15%)
Santorum: 6% (8%)
other/not sure: 12% (31%)
U.S. Senate ’12
Allen: 67%
Donner: 2%
Jackson: 3%
McCormick: 2%
Radtke: 5%
Undecided: 21%
Governor ’13
Bolling: 25%
Cuccinelli: 44%
Undecided: 31%
Some additional highlights from the crosstabs:
ALLEN FAVORABILITY AMONG TEA PARTIERS AT 59% with only 13% having an unfavorable opinion. Radtke’s support among Tea Partiers is only 10%, with 14% having an unfavorable opinion. No other candidates for US Senate were asked this question. 65% of self described Tea Partiers said Allen’s ideology was “about right” – meanwhile, Radtke’s fav/unfav numbers are 10/14. Allen’s numbers are 63/16 — meaning that Radtke’s unfavorables are as high as Allen’s at the moment.
CUCCINELLI FAVORABILITY AMONG TEA PARTIERS AT 72% while Bolling’s numbers are 43/7. Cuccinelli supporters are die hard as well, with over half refusing to consider another candidate.
GINGRICH CAPTURES 46% of VIRGINIA TEA PARTIER SUPPORT with Bachmann and Romney in second at 11%, and Santorum in third at 9%. Safe to say that Gingrich’s strategy of rolling up the South is going to plan, barring a catastrophe over the next few weeks.
MORE WOMEN THAN MEN SUPPORT ALLEN with support for Allen at 70% with women and 65% for men.
RON PAUL’S UNFAVORABLES ARE AT 59% — ouch. Did not expect to see that… God save Ron Paul from his supporters…
GEORGE ALLEN EVEN WINS OVER RON PAUL SUPPORTERS at 31% vs. Donner at 13%, McCormick at 10% and Radtke at 4%. So where are Jamie Radtke supporters? Supporting Santorum (31% of Santorum supporters vote Radtke; 61% support Allen).
HUNTSMAN SUPPORTERS SUPPORT DONNER? Who would have guessed that?!?
Allen and Cuccinelli have to be happy with these numbers in Virginia, while surprisingly enough, Tim Donner has captured a larger part of the heart-and-soul of the Tea Party movement than any of the other challengers. Still, former Governor Allen’s commanding lead not only in the primary but also among Tea Partiers show very little daylight for any challenger whatsoever.
One thing is for certain: George Allen and Ken Cuccinelli are indisputably leading the Tea Party movement in Virginia.
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Shaun Kenney is the Chairman of the Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors, former Communications Director for the Republican Party of Virginia, and an active blogger since 2002. Shaun lives in Thomas Jefferson's backyard with his wife, six children, and a modest attempt at a farm in Kents Store, Virginia.
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29 Responses to "Allen: Tea Party Support at 59%"
What does this all mean? Well, it seems to me that at least half of self-professed tea partiers don’t want to practice what they preach.
The argument can certainly be made that supporting George Allen is reverting back to the big-government conservatism of the George Bush era, but let’s focus on POTUS for now. With half of the tea party in Virginia supporting the biggest Washington insider of all the candidates, the movement seems to have either lost its focus or been infiltrated by moderates. The latter is a conspiracy that I do not accept.
Chris,
You are trying to generalize from the single data point. With respect to Allen, Tea Party movement voters are probably just responding like most other Repubs to the weakness of his opponents. If Cuccinelli challenged Allen do you think Allen would have Tea Party movement support?
As for Gingrich, he is the most curious Washington Insider ever, since he was evicted from it rather forcefully. Yes he tries to ingratiate himself with them for fun and profit from time to time but then he frosts them all over again. He doesn’t have the persona of an insider so it is not surprising that his past doesn’t register that much. Remember also its been 12 years since he was Speaker. I suppose Tea party movement voters should be supporting Perry or Santorum or even Bachmann (and 24% do it seems) but Tea Party movement voters can be stampeded by the horse race just like other voters.
As for the Tea Party movement losing its focus I think it’s much too early to say. We won’t know until the 2012 election and probably 2014 as well whether that’s true.
Come on Shaun,
Maybe you should look at some property rights issues. Meanwhile, you’re playing offense for your candidate. One that is leading us to Serfdom…Do you know Mike Barrett? I’m sure you and he get along real well.
Besides, we know polls are meant to sway votes. Not gauge it.
It looks like I have my work cut out for me…
Shaun: I like how you say things that just aren’t so.
George Allen and Ken Cuccinelli are indisputably leading the Tea Party movement in Virginia.
How do you get that Allen is LEADING the tea party movement? Unless you meant “in the lead for 350 respondents” favorability?
Or, trolling for comments to drive the google clicks. Either way. Or something.
“Hey, I like chocolate. Therefore, chocolate is leading me.”
FAIL
JJ,
“Besides, we know polls are meant to sway votes. Not gauge it.”
Really? I don’t know that. That is like saying that the weather forecast causes weather rather than predicts it.
PPP.. c’mon.. same push dem owned polling outfit that is in the tank for Obamakaine.
Rocky,
University of Illinois-Chicago. “Fifty-two percent of Americans think most climate scientists agree that the Earth has been warming in recent years,” Convoluted? I’d say.
You’re right…our economy is being destroyed because the weather forecast causes weather. For years, we’ve heard the man-made Global Warming consensus (poll) is in and the debate is over.
As for the poll, they asked one Radtke question and three of Allen, Q11, Q12. That alone is biased. Just by the way you ask a question, order of the candidates, etc. can sway the opinion of the polled.
Meanwhile, our economy and our weather sucks and we’re cheering the guy who got us here…George Allen.
I wonder how Christine O’Donnell’s endorsement of Mitt Romney will affect his polls? I know I said endorsement don’t much matter, unless it’s one like this! Can’t wait to see the bumper sticker “WITCHES FOR ROMNEY”
There is no question that the Establishment Candidate has the name recognition and the money to win this race. We need to remind the public that last time he was Senator and had the opportunity to lead on “Tea Party” issues George Allen:
1. Voted four times to increase the debt ceiling last time he was Senator, increasing it by 50% and adding $3.1 Trillion to the national debt.
2. Virginia General Fund spending increased by 45.6% while George Allen was Governor.
3. While in the U.S. Senate he voted for the costly No Child Left Behind and the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit. Now he opposes them
There is no question that the grassroots, who do not support him, although they appear to here, have a lot of work to do in the next 11 months. It is a true David and Goliath battle; however the facts are on our side – George Allen is not a Tea Party Candidate, otherwise he would have led on these issues and many more to follow, last time the Virginia Citizenry sent him to Washington. He did not lead on these issues – he followed the big government Republicans who could have prevented the mess we are in today – had they led when they controlled both sides of Congress and the Whitehouse.
The Citizens are better educated this time, and while Mr. Allen has the name recognition and the money behind him, he does not have the record. There is a reason AP and Tim Kaine want him to be the candidate – because they know he has a record that they can beat. Our job is to educate Virginia that while he has done some great things for Virginia, especially as Governor – it is time for new leadership in Washington.
Scott,
You say, “we have alot of work to do in the next 11 months,” are you implying that Tim Kaine is a stronger tea party candidate than Gov. Allen and that the tea party would be better served supporting a Tim Kaine?
Nice try Steve.. The ‘tea party’ is served by nobody because it is not a party. Tim Kaine will win because the Tea party movement will yet again expose Allen after the primary. There is a shit storm warning and the GOP’s big tent has a lot of holes in it.. conservatives are getting soaked again.
Great post Shaun. The denial from Radtke crazies is amazing. Makes much more sense now, understanding why they can’t get their girl out of single digits. The fact that they question the reliability of the poll explains how amateur they really are. After a few more years they might be able to run a town council race. …MAYBE.
Steve,
I don’t vote in Democratic Primaries. I look forward to discussing this race with you in person.
Blessings,
Scott
I rarely dialog in these things, so far anyway – but I do want you to know my preference. I prefer dialoging with people who use their full names, and not pseudonym’s. Our country is in a dire situation, following the path of Europe, and the time to stand up and be counted is now. It is hard to stand up and be counted when you write your opinions under a pseudonym. Just my 2 cents!
Great post Shaun, its been entertaining to read all the comments. I can’t wait, and I think its coming, until a poll comes out with Jackson is second and Radtke dropping even lower.
On the 2013 race, I wonder how long it will be before Bolling decides to run for Lt Gov again?
Scott,
I thank you for the comment. I will be in touch.
Thanks,
Steve
Interesting poll.
Questionable methodology.
Allen’s & Gingrich’s Victory is certain.
I suppose their job is done here.
TP rallys over the last couple of years were all about smaller government while Allen was a big government progressive as defined by his votes for more spending and higher debt. The PPP poll is a push poll that does not take TP conservatism into account. Republican Allen spent like a liberal during the Bush years and was a major contributor to the problems we now face that ObamaKaine made worse. Its the same old scam on republicans again. Allen’s general election opponent has it made in Virginia.. The average R voter remains unaware of the consequences of Allen’s record at thie early stage of the game.
I find it interesting that the Radtkacs can place so much importance on a Bearing Drift unscientific straw poll but when a scientific poll using a random sample finds her support in single digits, they dismiss it as a rigged, “push” poll. You guys are really sad. I can’t decide if you are trying so hard to convince others or to convince yourselves.
I think what PPP and some fail to understand, is that while many “Tea Party” members are new to the political process, there are also about an even # of “Tea Party” members that are grassroots GOP activists that have been working in the trenches of the conservative movement for years. They are the hard-core GOP base that attend every Republican convention, vote in every GOP primary, etc.
In short, these long-time activists have fond memories of George Allen, both his time as Governor and when he defeated long-time liberal nemesis Chuck Robb in 2000. These long-time activists are both your core GOP base and identify themselves as Tea Party supporters.
It explains why Allen is getting a lot of Tea Party support
Looks like George Allen has alot more Tea party support than some people want to admit.
Rocky,
I find it interesting you bring up a mute point and then make that the basis of your point. I addressed that our property rights are being infringed, our economy is being dismantled by Mike Barrett and our troops lied too but we’re worried that George Allen is leading in the polls.
While I addressed your diversion, you did not address the main point of my post. …and that is sad.
JJ,
I was ignoring your subjective, snarky comment to Shaun and responding to your assertion that “polls are meant to sway votes. Not gauge it.” That is certainly true of push polls, straw ballots, and the like, but not true of scientific polls like the one Shaun is citing in this post. If you really believe that, then you obviously have never read a single book on statistics. Yes, bias can be introduced into a poll by the way questions are not only phrased but by the way the respondent interprets the question. That is why good polls ask multiple questions phrased differently about the same issue. And that is why reputable polling organizations like Gallup, Rasmussen, and PPP, to name a few, are consistently so reliable in predicting the actual outcome. Arguing the validity of the polling results is like arguing with a stop sign.
Rocky,
In 2007, polls clearly had Hilary and Giuliani as the front runners. According to Rasmussen six years ago, Allen was the incumbant and up on Webb 57-26. Do I need to remind you of the outcome?
What does your statistic books say about that?
JJ,
My statistics books say that the closer you come to the election the more reliable the polls are. External events that occur a year before the election drive the polling results, but the polling results do not drive the election outcome. Yes, Jamie Radtke could overtake George Allen from a deficit of 67-5 in this week’s poll–provided that Allen was indicted for child molestation and the other four Republican candidates dropped out. (“None of the above” is in second place at 21%.) That and a cold day in Hell. Give it up.
Responding to Tom’s question about Bolling:
My guess honestly is that he looks at the 2014 Senate race over the 2013 choice of Governor or LG. I’d certainly like to see him consider taking on Warner- with both McDonnell’s and Cuccinelli’s support, that would be a race to remember.
Rocky,
Yeah, I know. Reality sucks! Welcome to the real world. So, we are back to a useless poll.
Maybe you ought to slow down with reading all those books and experience reality, it’s a whole different world.
knowledge + experience = wisdom
[...] while some Virginia Tea Party activists have been pulling for an choice to Allen, Bearing Drift’s Shaun Kenney notes that a check shows Allen’s favorability among tea partiers during 59 percent, with usually 13 [...]
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