RPV Advance: Who Was Missing
By Jason Kenney | Monday, December 5th, 2011 | Politics, VirginiaThis weekend’s happenings have been pretty well covered (especially by Lynn here at BD), but the notable absence of some really stood out at this year’s Advance.
1) Ken Cuccinelli – This has been covered all over the place, but for a guy that wasn’t there he certainly was the elephant in the room (well, THE ELEPHANT in a room full of other elephants…). While he was absent his supporters were not, and sure the crowd was definitely more Bolling than Cuccinelli, but private conversations showed a lot of folks just being polite. Even within “The Establishment” who typically attends the Advance there is a split that will show itself more as time goes on.
2) Jamie Radtke – While Cuccinelli’s absence was somewhat excused (some folks thought he was being polite, other’s just figured it was the Presidential debate in New York), Radtke’s absence was noted and very telling. Yes, she sent off an email apologizing for being unable to make it and then listing a bunch of endorsements. And, yes, she had an engagement down at at Tea Party forum at Natural Bridge. But EW Jackson also went to Natural Bridge. And was STILL a presence at the Advance Friday and Saturday night. More so than Tim Donner and David McCormick, who both also were there to greet the party faithful. This was a golden opportunity for Radtke to get face time with the very people she has got to gain traction with to not only win the primary but, should she do that, work with in the general. Choosing not to go says a lot about her campaign, its organization, its finances, and how it possibly views itself within the Republican Party. If Natural Bridge was about trying to find a single person for everyone to get behind in challenging George Allen for the nomination, that single person will have to show some traction with the Republican Party “establishment”. You don’t get that by blowing them off.
3) The Media – No one was there. No one. Well, OK, David Sherfinski from the Washington Times made it out. But that’s it. So no two. Republicans take control of the State Senate, build a super majority in the House of Delegates, have a (last minute for the Advance) Governor’s race on their hands, a Senate primary coming up, and so much more, and the media figured it wasn’t worth showing up. Ah well.
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Jason Kenney has blogged at J’s Notes since 2001, is the director of RedStormPAC providing online fundraising for Republican candidates in Virginia, and co-founder of K6 Consulting. He is a graduate from Virginia Commonwealth University and resides in Richmond, Virginia.
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28 Responses to "RPV Advance: Who Was Missing"
Ken may think he’s got it in the bag (or like you said just being polite, maybe). Jamie wants to make sure that everyone knows she’s Tea Party not Republican Party. The media thinks it’s a party that has no winners so why come?
Funny how things eventually turn out. It’s a fundamental truth that if you show up, no matter what, you are a winner.
Why would the media be there?
What would they have written about?
Did anything special happen?
A bunch of pols at a posh resort telling each
other how great they are! And, probabloy, how
the Republicans will sweep the coming election.
I don’t think it was worth their showing up for either.
Radtke should have been there to win the support of…..the voters? Rubbing elbows with the “party elite” is soooo 2000′s. This is exactly the kind of thinking that tells Cuccinelli to “sit down” and “wait his turn”. Soon the parties as we know them today will cease to exist. Perhaps in some new form, sure.
Folks are really, REALLY tired of “politics as usual”.
Jamie not coming to the Advance is really not newsworthy. She politely sent a letter of regret. What she did not say was she has her priorities straight. She had a long-term extended family commitment which she honored without publicly using it as an excuse. Now that is newsworthy! My hat is off to her allignment of priorities. That is why true conservatives are lining up behind her banner. If she had gone, you BD guys would have found something else to pick on her about, anyway.
What is more concerning in the no-show column is the Media. Just how relevant has this high-dollar, fancy-pants affair become? I have read in these pages scathing critism of the TP CoLA retreat that cost a hundred bucks for an entire week-end. Did anyone know that included fantastic meals, top-knotch conservative speakers and a fantastic hall and break-out rooms for in-depth ISSUE discussions?
When is the Republican Party going to get off its elitist high horse and catch up with the TP!
Kathy said: “Jamie wants to make sure that everyone knows she’s Tea Party not Republican Party.” Kathy, you are so much better than that my friend. Jamie Radtke is hard R CONSERVATIVE. Get used to it.
And Jason, I hear you are better than this but the language in your article read like something I would expect from an elitist hack, not you. Cuccinelli and Radtke are not playing the establishment game, they are honorably in it for their families if you get my drift. Cuccinelli and Radtke have their priorities straight and if truth were told in your writing you would have elicited a different response that does not suit your agenda whatever it is.. no disrespect, just refering to what appears to be inflected on the page.
There is a big difference between opinion and fact. When you want the facts, contact the candidates and ask them.. You know how to get in contact, you are BD afterall.
Turbo –
That’s rubbish. If Jamie is really in this to win for the long haul, the votes and support needed to make that happen were at The Homestead, not at Natural Bridge.
In fact, her lack of attendance only gives credence to the idea that Jamie isn’t really in this to win at all… nor are her handlers in this to win the general election (much less the primary), but solely in this to tear down George Allen.
750 people at the Advances, most of whom were wearing Allen stickers.
Perhaps the other explanation for why Jamie did not attend is more true now than it was this weekend — namely, that if Jamie’s staff allowed her to see the support Allen had amongst the rank-and-file, it would not have been so easy to dismiss Allen’s support as “establishment” but rather, as genuine grassroots.
right-all-along, you are not correct. This was not high dollar, you could get registered for $79. The best parts of the event were the hospitality suites Friday and Saturday nights- and they were free to attendees. This was not high horse. Sure if you wanted to you could pay more and get access to a couple side events everyone else could not, but the best parts of the event were free. Fundamentally, it’s a grassroots event.
You know, this whole “establishment vs outsiders” gets really old. There are super good conservatives who have been around a while, people who work hard and sacrifice so much of themselves for values we ALL share. And there are TEA Partiers who hold views I would consider liberal.
Gotta take each case as an individual.
Shaun, the Advance is a republican establishment endorsathon. None of the grass roots conservatives have much of a reason to go to the event of events geared towards establishment candidates. Are you kidding me about tearing down Allen? Of course the Advance had 750 mostly wearing Allen stickers. Lets see them turn out at TP rallys and meetings when their candidate is not in the race. I bet there were a ton of Ron Paul supporters there too right? No? Newt and Romney supporters? Really, are you kidding? Been smoken one of those Allen cigars bro? :’)
Jamie “family first” Radtke had a blessed family event she attended that was planned months in advance, Shaun.
I just have to say that my hat is off to E.W. Jackson for winning the prize for the most active U.S. Senate candidate this past weekend. He was attended the Advance Friday evening, spent Friday night, and attended most of the breakfast with Eric Cantor before leaving at the last possible minute to get down to Natural Bridge. Then he left there in time to get back to the Advance in time for the Gala Dinner and reception.
No one can deny that this man is 100% committed! And if he could do both of the events, the other candidates have no excuse for not being at both as well.
Jason – I have to disagree with you about the media.
Bearing Drift was there.
If the mainstream media wants to continue to abdicate their responsibility to cover politics, we have no problems in filling in those gaps.
Brian, with all due respects, why should the media cover a weekend of cavorting with big name politicians?
Because it was the first major weekend of Republican gatherings in the 2012 political season. Because we’ve got competitive primaries and Congressional races shaping up. Because we’ve got a lot of folks in one place and they can get a ton of good information for stories in the future and build relationships that will help them report the news in the future.
The fact that nobody was there demonstrates to me how much the mainstream media is behind the curve when it comes to covering politics in Virginia.
whether one supports Ms. Radtke or not, one must wonder why she thought thumbing her nose at 750 Republicans (of whatever stripe) gathered at one site was smart politics.
If she got the nomination, she would need these people, their energies, their money & their address books.
Ms. Radtke needs to realize that we are all on the same side: beating Tim Kaine (& Obama)>
kelley,
The Tea Partiers are not on the same side as the “Establishment” Republicans. Re-read their comments here. Their goal to co-opt the Republican Party and transform it into some kind of far-right extremist collection of Libertarians and 1990′s style Social Conservatives who preach limited government when it comes to taxation but practice intrusive government when it come to science, human rights, and privacy. However, I predict that, like the Reform Party, they will soon be consigned to the ash bin of history. Why? Because to them being right is more important than winning.
Rocky, This was a big event, set a record, no doubt its a great place to network with big government activists. Tea Party movement holds rallys open to everyone, Establishment GOP holds the Advance at a posh country getaway. That sends a message right? What is that message Brian, Kelley & Rocky?
Turbo,
Steve T. already answer that assertion. The registration fee was $79 and most of the events were free to attend. As for lodging at the Homestead, it is a bargain compared to most hotels in northern Virginia and in Richmond.
On the other hand, didn’t the Richmond Tea Party have an event a couple of weeks ago that was $110 to attend?
Turbo, I consider the Tea Party to be part of our overall efforts. We’ve got to ditch the Establishment vs. Tea Party now. We’ve got a bigger fish to fry and we can’t do that if we’re divided.
Shaun, I have to respectfully disagree with your statement,
“Turbo –
That’s rubbish. If Jamie is really in this to win for the long haul, the votes and support needed to make that happen were at The Homestead, not at Natural Bridge.
In fact, her lack of attendance only gives credence to the idea that Jamie isn’t really in this to win at all… nor are her handlers in this to win the general election (much less the primary), but solely in this to tear down George Allen.
750 people at the Advances, most of whom were wearing Allen stickers.”
Taking Jamie out of that statement, I worked deeply on 4 Loudoun campaigns from Senator-elect Dick Black to Sheriff-elect Mike Chapman and several Board members this cycle, all of whom won. The one common theme learned from past success (and failures), as staff we had to be ever conscious of not attending the ra-ra sessions, especially later in the game once endorsements were already out they do NOT win the votes which will win a primary. Early in the campaign, sure, attend everything, but not at this stage.
While you have a point that if you anticipate winning the primary and therefore will need to work with these already in-office and elected folks, it is great to rub elbows, but an underdog candidate has to work exhaustively on the ground to win the primary. In your own words, “750 people at the Advances, most of whom were wearing Allen stickers.” So a quick speech or convenience booth, even a few handshakes or cocktails will not turn Allen supporters who came there to support him and the Party into voters for another candidate in the primary.
Dick Black missed many of the ra-ra sessions locally, instead was boots to the ground in PWC where he needed a heavier presence. Mike Chapman was told repeatedly that incumbent Sheriff Simpson owned western Loudoun and not to waste his time, instead Chapman missed a number of these ra-ra’s in eastern Loudoun to spend time on the ground in the west which became some of his largest margins of success in the General.
Unless you win the primary, the rest does not matter and going to a pre-primary event where, from the Governor down, most are supporting Allen, a candidate without the last name of Allen has potentially lost ground and lost potential voters. The voting public has no clue what the RVP is or what the Advance is. And, there are only so many hours in a day and only so many days until a primary–you either play strategically to win or you are out.
The same rules apply as you go up the ladder. Two or three days listening, shaking hands with those who support your opponent, with those who have already endorsed your opponent, who, unless you win the primary, will never work with… or two to three days gaining supporters and votes for the primary.
There are, however, other reasons to attend. If you have large contributors who expect you there and/or need face time to write another check… then the balance may be in favor of attending. Otherwise, an underdog candidate can rub elbows and show support all he/she wants but prior to the primary, unless they are picking up votes or checks, it can be wasted time to attend an event like the Advance.
As for concentrating on Allen… every contender attempting to win the primary has two opponents–Allen and Kaine. But unless Donner or Radtke can defeat Allen, Kaine does not matter, Kaine is not in our primary. So the only way Donner or Radtke (neither the Bishop nor McCormick have a chance) can overcome the immediate challenge is to demonstrate to voters (not Allen supporters), 1) that Allen is not actually as conservative (voting history) and 2) that they are electable in his place (we should all watch the forthcoming debates for a better view).
Very tough all around but whether an underdog candidate attended the Advance or not is a matter of strategy in their or their team’s feeling of where it is best to pick up grassroots votes instead of attending or balancing other factors such as face time with donors. If neither could be a factor to win the primary, then attending the Advance would have been a bad campaign strategy.
Slight follow-up to my post above… there is another potential and strategic reason candidates may have attended the Advance for face-time; tomorrow, Allen faces Kaine in a debate where the mainstream media set the bar so high financially, etc., that only these two could attend (obviously planned), but in the event that Kaine flusters Allen to a degree that he blows it or says something really ridiculous where his supporters back-off, a few calls to other candidates like Donner, who attended the Advance, will surely follow.
so Brian, you think Radtke can win the primary? & after that, how will she raise the funds necessary to compete with Kaine & OFA?
Brian said: “I consider the Tea Party to be part of our overall efforts. We’ve got to ditch the Establishment vs. Tea Party now. We’ve got a bigger fish to fry and we can’t do that if we’re divided.”
Do you mean the fiscally conservative Tea Party movement or the liberal big government Tea Party for Allen? As for ditching the Establishment vs TP, nu uh.. The GOP is in the process of failing conservatives yet again by crowning their favorite rino and the conservative TP aint kosher with that and neither is this jew. We are divided which should be no revelation in light of the unacceptable BS being waged by none other than the RPV to the benefit of THE U.S. senate candidate of their choosing. AP is in it to win m.o.n.e.y. George Allen Pays doesn’t he, Brian S.?…
Well, Brian S., there you have it. I have always admired your devotion to coalition-building and making the Republican Party all-inclusive–a most notable goal. But you are obviously wasting your time with the Tea Party. It is like trying to reason with fanatics–they misunderstand your willingness to compromise as a weakness and try to exploit it.
The RPV would do much better to focus their efforts on reaching out to moderate Independents and tell the purists and absolutists on the far right to go piss up a rope. After all, who are they going to vote for if not the Republican? Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, on the other hand, have demonstrated that the middle voters will swing their way and hand them the election.
Turbo, come on. We’ve got a primary for the Senate race next year so Jamie, Tim, Dave – they all have as much of a shot as George does in winning it. I’ve spoken with all of them other than McCormick and they’re all good Republicans. We can’t afford to be divided going into next year.
There’s too much on the line. Time to stop fighting amongst each other and focus on winning. This establishment vs. outsider dichotomy is not helpful to anyone.
Brian, I agree. Keeping Kaine out of office is job #1.
The disagreement is on not who should win but the process that the party condones to exclude candidates with less money and inner circle party support. Tomorrows general election debate is highly divisive for people who have not yet cast their vote in the primary.
If we can agree on this facet then we can agree to work together. You are a good guy but this is ole boy politics.
Why would the media attend the Hillbilly Hideaway gala? Their big event is tomorrow with the chosen ones.
What you all seem to be missing is a simple fact, No One Cares who will be senator. The public is over this whole business as usual back room deal making. Congress is polling lower than whale dung and you somehow are expecting an epiphany of voter excitement for this election. Allen and Kaine are both damaged goods that are being auctioned off at masterpiece prices in a Craigslist world.
Kelly, I believe your question about Radtke was to me. I think the proper answer is that Allen is the person to beat at this point and whomever wins the Primary, those in power and the RPV will shift their support, weight and funding. The alternative is that Allen supporters remain in shock if he loses and do nothing, go dark with their support of the nominee and that is akin to handing Kaine the election. Whomever wins the primary is the republican Nominee and the rest go away–there is none to support but the Nominee so you either want the Nominee or act to hand it to Kaine.
There are certain anticipations made with regard to campaign strategy and one which holds little weight is to bet on the come…. with a primary process, and I can tell you this from successful experience with a number of candidates, there are two elections and to worry about the second (in this case the General) is the absolute wrong strategy to employ (One which Allen loves though).
How can ANY candidate feel that they need to set up for the General and anticipate or what-if the primary now when folks like the AP have so clearly sabotaged the primary process by demonstrating to the main stream voter pool that Allen and Kaine are the only two worthy of a nationally sponsored and recognized debate?
The underdogs who could not reach that level of financial backing, etc., and are locked out of tomorrow’s debate now have twice the obstacle in their grassroots efforts to overcome the damage this pre-primary bi-partisan debate will cause. Many minds will be made up tomorrow and then turn off until they cast their vote. They will have no clue about Donner, Radtke, McCormick, etc., and even less interest in the election the moment they are exposed to Allen as the only republican allowed to debate.
The RPV acts as if it is involved by sponsoring partisan debates, yet they don’t even begin until April with the primary held in June, again favoring Allen yet this time with timing.
The ONLY way to upset Allen is countless hours of grassroots work to gain an unbelievable amount of support knowing that Allen is an expert at grassroots himself–not shaking hands at an Allen-sided event which he can afford time-wise to attend.
Some of this discussion makes me wonder if any of these folks have ever attended an Advance.
For me, and I’ve been to 3 of them, it was a chance for me as a grassroots activist to actually meet and chat with some of the electeds and make my own decisions about them- unfiltered. It was a chance to meet other grassroots activists (hundreds of them) and see what they thoughts about candidates or issues. And they range wildly- social conservatives, TP types, social libertarians, economic conservatives, establishment, moderates, everything.
This is a really great event. Maybe not for all the candidates- Jamie had little reason to show other than maybe to meet some potential donors to her campaign- but it’s a time you can meet people instead of read about them, shake their hand instead of wonder what they are really like, have a beer with them, bowl with them, whatever. Ask them questions you never heard them answer.
But this BS “establishment means liberal” and “TP are the only real patriots” is crap. Lots of patriotic non TP, lots of really conservative establishment. Anyone who says otherwise doesn’t know what they are talking about.
Jason, I can’t imagine how you think Jackson was more a presence than Donner. Were we at the same event?
I was at the Advance and saw both Jackson and McCormick – briefly. Donner was there all day Friday and Saturday. His campaign had a large table set up with big signs and I saw him and his wife at the table a number of times. Were you really there? If so how can you say Jackson had a big presence? Clearly Allen had the highest visibility, followed by Donner, then maybe Jackson a way distant third
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