New feature! The Florida Report: Virginia ex-pat to keep us posted on that battleground state

(Ed. Note – we welcome to the BD team D. Michael Arendall, Jr., of St. Petersburg, FL. Mike is a Virginia native, longtime political observer, and friend of BD. He will be providing us weekly updates on the trends in Florida – a crucial battleground state – as we move through the 2012 Election year.)

In just a few short days, Florida’s U.S. Senate election in 2012 has gone from being a sleeper to a true race. What changed? The entry of a candidate with the name recognition and record to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, Florida’s only remaining Democrat elected statewide. Enter U.S. Rep. Connie Mack.

For months prior to Mack’s candidacy, none of the Republican candidates in the race had been able to generate more than a passing glance in polls and none appeared as a serious threat to Nelson. In fact, as recently as the first of November, Nelson had been so comfortable with his chances of re-election that he chose to publicly take on Gov. Rick Scott’s record as our governor, rather than the records of his GOP opponents.

A new Quinnipiac University poll released today shows Mack grabbing 32% of the GOP primary vote, the overwhelming favorite in a five man race. Former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux was a distant second in the poll at 9%, followed by former Army Col. Mike McCalister at 6%, and state Rep. Adam Hasner and Winter Park businessman Craig Miller each polling at 2%. 45% of those polled were undecided or did not know who they preferred. And, importantly, the poll has Mack trailing Nelson by only two percentage points in a general election race, well within the margin of error of 4.3 percent.

Mack had flirted with a Senate run in the spring but until recently had appeared poised to instead run for re-election to his Southwest Florida congressional seat. Mack enters his Senate campaign with at least one important natural advantage. He is the son of a popular former two-term United States Senator with whom he shares his name and, thus, powerful name recognition. Mack’s conservative credentials are strong – he is focused on reforming government with a cut, cap, and balance plan nicknamed the “Mack Penny Plan,” which he says will reduce federal spending by a penny for every dollar spent from 2012 to 2017, caps spending at 18% of GDP beginning in 2018, and balances the federal budget in 2019.

With the addition of Representative Mack in Florida’s Senate race, Republicans may have found a formidable candidate to carry the conservative banner against a senator who has consistently supported President Obama’s programs, widely unpopular in Florida. It looks to be a great race in a big election year.

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About the author

D. Michael Arendall, Jr.

D. Michael Arendall, Jr. is a graduate of Stetson Law School and works in St. Petersburg, FL. He was the student body president at Old Dominion University and is a former chairman of the College Republican Federation of Virginia. He's a native of Chesterfield County and is active in Florida Republican Party politics.