State Senate: 20-20 = +1!
By D.J. Spiker | Wednesday, November 9th, 2011 | Politics, VirginiaWhat. a. night.
Despite the predictions (and admittedly, assumptions) that the Republican takeover of the State Senate was a foregone conclusion, election night started great, then went down, down, down, down, down, down and in one fell swoop came right back up in a euphoria I have not felt in quite some time. Literally, shouting just twenty minutes ago.
A quick recap.
The night began with Democrats shaking their head at the number of races that went unchallenged and Republicans licking their chops at the number of vulnerable races. As the polls closed, turnout numbers looked quite low and given the deficit of Democrat turnout the last two cycles, Republicans around the state felt solid that the close races would flip their way.
It was not to be.
Race after race, VPAP called races for Democrat incumbents (quick shout-out, VPAP hands-down outdid itself this year, with a user-friendly interface on the mainpage with every contested race in the Senate along with a power structure chart showing realtime results. Outstanding, VPAP.org) By 11:15, we were ready to call it a night, dejectedly.
One last glance at VPAP changed all of that.
In the equivalent of a hail mary from the one-yard line with one second left on the clock, a human error entering information in Spotsylvania County turned a 126 vote deficit to an 86 vote lead as the clock ran out and showed 100% on the clock. Bryce Reeves defeats Edd Houck. I screamed, yelled, shouting and posted fast and furious on facebook and twitter to spread the news and get instant updates.
It was true.
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, Republicans now control the House (with a massive 7 seat pickup tonight, which is another story, including the forced-retirement of Ward Armstrong), the Governor’s Mansion and now have a 20/20 split in the State Senate, with all ties being broken by Lt. Governor Bill Bolling, the equivalency of full control in the state.
The decline of Dems has reached a new low (if such a thing were possible) particularly given the way the nights’ results were looking. Chairman Moran was preparing a victory lap, Governor McDonnell canceled his media availability, and in the span of minutes everything flipped on its head.
The other takeaway from the night? If the presidential election were held today, Virginia would be a solidly red state, 61% – 39%, as Republicans account for nearly 660,000 votes; Democrats just 452,000 votes. Obviously those numbers will be higher, but it took every gerrymandering trick in the book for the Democrats to hold a 20/20 split in the Senate where all ties will be broken by Bolling (who likely will be the busiest man in Richmond next year, moving from his office to the General Assembly frequently and often). In statewide elections, Tim Kaine and Barack Obama look to be living on borrowed time.
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Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right...entrenched on the right as a member of the Establishment, proudly tattooed member of the Republican Party, bartender by trade serving both sides the libations needed to continue the debate and discourse. College student, ten years late, majoring in Public Policy and Administration with an eye to serving the conservative and Republican movement in the public or private sector. ducit amor patriae You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com. You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com.
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33 Responses to "State Senate: 20-20 = +1!"
Very good commentary DJ. You nailed it!
Excellent commentary and reporting, DJ! This was an amazing night and one not soon to be forgotten.
The bottom-line for conservatives heading into this session – stay focused on the economic battles. We need to grow Virginia and make it a positive engine for business.
From RPV Chairman Pat Mullins:
If the presidential election *were* held today, I think turnout would have looked a little different. It will be interesting to see what happens this session in an post-Tea Party solid R virginia.
If there is a 20/20 split in the Virginia Senate, the Senate absolutely must operate under the same rules as it did the last time there was a tie. Any attempt to disregard the voters of the Commonwealth’s decisions will be met with justifiable scorn and derision.
Is a star born in Bill Stanley?
I went to bed pissed that Houck had beat Reeves by so little.
My elation this morning…!!!
JS, you are delusional. There is no reason why the GOP should do that given the way the Dems treated them these past four years. Suck it up.
Riley,
With tie votes in committees, that will be hard to do, don’t you think? I agree with you that the Democrats behaved very badly, but the Republicans should not overplay their hand.
Speaking of which, does anyone know what the tie-breaker rule is in committees? If the vote is tied, it doesn’t get reported out or does the chair get to decide?
D.J. and Riley: When the Senate was tied 20-20 before, Republicans argued that Democratic L.G. Don Beyer could not cast the tie-breaking vote on organizational issues because he was not “a member elected” to the body. That led to power sharing. Why would the idenfical situation lead to a different result now?
This is different situation than before. Republicans were a dominate 20 member caucas and the democrats yeilded. Republicans are not yeilding. Judicial appointments will require 21 votes, so the democrats will get some concessions there.
The biggest difference is that with the GOP majority in the House of Delgates, the democrats would use any parity to bottle up legislation in committees without bringing key legislation to the floor for a vote. The way to avoid that is for the Republicans to organize so that they are the majority on all committees and chair all committees. Otherwise the democrats will bottle everything up. Don’t expect the GOP to say “OK, we will let you have parity, go ahead and block everything even though you are the minority party and got far less votes.” Stupid democrats.
BG: Okay, so much for intellectual honesty on the GOP side. What you’re saying is that we’re going to ignore what we said ten years ago and grab the majority we failed to win at the polls.
Steve -
No problem with what ewe say. We know this is what ewe will say just to hang on, but it won’t work. Things are different now. Democrats will say anything to save their hides and what you are saying is just the first course. We are now trained to irgnore your nonsense, so go ahead and spew it out. As instructed by the Governor, let those of us happy with elections work on not being arrogent. For those of ewe with the nonsense, work on not being angy and for God sakes stop it with this parity nonsense.
BG-Shorter rant. “Don’t annoy me with the facts. I’ve got an i-dee-ologee.”
Ewe know it Steve! Just be content to know that it will be just crammed down the democrats throats. I recall hanging out around the House of Delegates in the late 80s. Andy Guest use to say “come on guys, everyone just vote for Philpot for speaker so he will be in a good mood.” Jeff Stafford would get drunk at parties and yell “Andy Guest is a pu$$y and I am voting for Vance Wilkins for floor leader next time.” Despite it being a 60 to 40 split in the chamber, the republicans would get two seats on the important committees and be seated at opposite ends. Tom Moss and Dickie Cranwell also came to Republican districts and held news conferences saying that they better vote deocrat because the majority is democrat and if they send a Republican then they aren’t going to get anything. So yeah, I got an i-dee-ologee and an attititude. As I said in another thread, I invite the democrats to take a stroll in Byrd park.
I understand. Good luck with that. An eye for an eye and soon the whole world is blind. What goes around comes around.
BTW, after the spectacle of Vance changing the makeup of a committee right before it met to change the outcome of one vote, of jerking people off committees to punish them for votes, of killing bills in subcommittees with no recorded votes, of failure of the GOP to provide the proportional represenation for the minority on committees that they always complained about not getting, etc….don’t you think the GOP has lost the high ground to continue complaining about the Moss/Cranwell days? I mean if you’re going to do the same thing when you’re in charge, you don’t really have an issue of fairness to be whining about anymore. It’s just whose ox got gored.
What hyper-partisans don’t yet get (or choose not to acknowledge) is the growing number of refugees from both parties now non-aligned – dissatisfied & disgusted by both party’s incompetence & corruption. Squeak-by does not = a mandate. If GOP agenda is God, guns, babies, marriage, immigrants, and gay-centric issues, expect a swing back in 2012. Virginia citizens want good stewardship of tax dollars, less spending, less borrowing, a smaller but more effective government, improved K-12 education & transportation, and a healthy balance btw economic growth and protecting our natural resources. The RPV panders to special interests (including corporate) and social conservative evangelical activists at it’s own peril.
DJ, you’re spinning again. “If the presidential election were held today, Virginia would be a solidly red state, 61% – 39%, as Republicans account for nearly 660,000 votes; Democrats just 452,000 votes.” Don’t recall being asked party affiliation when I voted. Good try.
If you people think principled tea party activists will vote for the George Bush era big government republican who made some horrendous blundering compromises on principle in order to hold onto power, think again. Tea Party voters are for the most part offended by the attitudes of many of you and your BS may be enough for many to stay home when the polls open.
Forget the FACT that many tea party activists are dedicated conservatives, furious at the GOP candidates who lied to them, at your risk. DJ, you better make sure you do not want tea party supporters unless you want Kaine to be our next senator.. you just may get your wish.. and I have not even mentioned a 3rd party run that some want to see if Allen wins.
Turbo – it’s that kind of hostility that makes me say, “go right ahead.” Stay home. Take your ball and go play somewhere else.
What are you, twelve?
If this is your idea of trying to stand on principle, by all means. Do it. It’s a free country. Just don’t complain when you’re enjoying Senator Tim Kaine and another four years of Pres. Obama.
If it makes you happy to act like a child and sacrifice the future of our children because you don’t like what some members of the GOP say, then, don’t participate. It’s certainly your prerogative.
And, it’s also mine to call you whiny.
When a candidate you support actually wins a race, call me. I’ll be there to support them, because they’re likely conservative and Republican.
If Radtke, Donner or Jackson win, you better damn well believe I’ll support them. Same goes if it’s Allen.
If Cain, Bachmann or Gingrich are the GOP nominee – I’m totally with them. As I will be with Romney.
It’s called being a conservative…and not a liberal. A liberal is someone who either is or enables liberals to win!
There are plenty of good conservatives who won with both GOP and Tea Party support.
I love how the libs are coming out the woodwork to spin how by their gerrymandering to narrowly hold onto 20 seats means they suddenly get power-sharing.
Where was the power-sharing the last four years when we had 10-5 committees, but a 22-18 Senate. Doesn’t look too proportional to me.
JayD – I agree. The focus is still the economy.
Saslaw today admitted there was no chance in hell there’d be any power sharing.
I agree there will be no sharing of power. But with the responcibility, there comes accountability. In 2012, Virginia better be improved or the voters will reject the GOP candidate and theme.
And blaming The President isn’t going to be the answer when the GOP has complete control in Virginia. I wish the best to the new majority but remember now you have nobody else to blame. Sincerely: Good luck!
JayD,
Everyone knows that there is no party registration in Virginia. What D. J. was referring to was the number of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters versus Republican and Republican-leaning voters which can be easily inferred by the state-wide ballot totals for Democratic versus Republican candidates. This includes the largest voting block in Virginia, the moderate Independents. They have swung left to elect Mark Warner (twice) and Tim Kaine. Now, with Barack Obama and Tim Kaine (disgraced with Independents since he was Governor) at the top of the ballot, they will tend to swing right in 2012.
Turbo,
Activists who are dedicated conservatives might stay home and not vote? Now that is funny! That is as silly as all the anti-war leftists staying home and not voting for Obama while a Republican President is elected. Who do you think you’re kidding? As for a third party candidate, go ahead. The one or two percent that he or she will garner will convince the Republican Party that they don’t need to glad hand the Tea Party. That is the most effective way for the Tea Party to prove their true support and you know it.
Rocky, I’m just a messenger. Remember the Ross Perot incident and why he stayed in until the end.. I did not agree with it then.
Turbo,
I know. You’re just the messenger for those tens of thousands of Tea Party voters out there. Uh-huh. Jamie Radtke has neither 20% of the vote nor Ross Perot’s money.
No Rocky, 1 man, one vote..
James, no worries, RPV may have been able to keep things quiet by not having a convention for the TEA party to land on, but now Allen has agreed to debate. Second week of April, Roanoke Va, dress warm.
Temp, who is moderating, what are the rules, are there any disqualifies for any of the candidates on the ballot, will the candidates be allowed to challenge each other?
James, I don’t know any of that except that I understand that Ms. Radtke is not automatically included, I believe I read that she (and others ?) have to get a certain number of signatures on a petition in order to participate, there is a process to it with some hoops to jump through. Hopefully someone here who knows a lot more about it will chime in. There is a thread about it here too.
Assuming all of the candidates are able to participate let us hope that it is an open debate instead of just canned statements, etc. I think everyone in Virginia would benefit from a real debate, especially now when there are so many strong and sometimes conflicting points of view among Conservatives.
@ Rocky: Nope, sorry but you can’t transmogrify statewide ballots into “If the presidential election were held today, Virginia would be a solidly red state.” All data stats show Virginia is still very much purple and that NOVA’s demographics are trending blue.
“…and Tim Kaine (disgraced with Independents since he was Governor)…” How so? According to PPP July 2011 polling, Allen earned a 58% UNfavorable from self-described moderates (compared to Kaine’s 53% FAVORABLE w/ same group). Appears Tim Kaine (and not Allen) currently has the edge w/ Virginia’s largest voting block; if he can keep it, he wins the seat.
Ms. Radtke isn’t the solution … but then again, she’s also not the problem and as the primary heats up and other-than-political-geeks-like-us start paying attention, we’ll know just how much the TP movement damaged Republican establishment credibility and how much of that sticks on Allen.
JayD,
“…you can’t transmogrify statewide ballots into “If the presidential election were held today, Virginia would be a solidly red state.” All data stats show Virginia is still very much purple and that NOVA’s demographics are trending blue.”
Why not? If the statewide ballots were 60-40 in favor of Republicans, how does that not translate into a red state preference? And don’t give me that Gerry Connolly sewage about Democratic voters not turning out for off-year elections. If that was even close to true then the Republicans would have swept Fairfax County like they did Loudoun County. What are the “data stats” that show that Virginia is still purple? And who cares if NoVa is trending blue? We’re talking about Virginia statewide, not the People’s Democratic Republics of Arlington and Alexandria.
As for Tim Kaine, you can’t pretend that he is still popular with Independents by comparing him with George Allen. Compare Tim Kaine 2006 with Tim Kaine 2009 in approval ratings and you can see how the Independents changed their minds about him when, unlike Warner, he turned out to be an ineffective, hyper-Democrat who abandoned the Governors Mansion for the Obama DNC before finishing his term.
Rocky,
You can’t convert local election results to likely PRESIDENTIAL election outcomes unless you statistically account (and adjust) for:
#1 – General assembly candidates that ran unopposed ~ that doesn’t happen in presidential & mid-term elections.
#2 – Participation rate is in-the-toilet low for local and these voters statistically trend older and whiter.
I’m not ‘pretending’ anything ~ just reporting results of most recent PPP polling data (July 2011) between the 3 Senate candidates.
Rocky- Jay D. his the major flaw with that number, it counts ballots cast for candidates who were unopposed…and there were many more unopposed GOP candidates. If you look at the races that were actually contested between the two parties, the party breakdown is much closer.
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