A few takeaways from a long night
By Norman Leahy | Wednesday, November 9th, 2011 | Politics, VirginiaA few things I think I learned from last night’s election returns:
* It’s never over till it’s over.
* Gerrymandering saved the Senate Democrats from a debacle of epic proportions. Conversely, House Republicans used it to pump their caucus up to record levels. How will this color the usual bleatings for non-partisan redistricting?
* Brandon Bell spent hundreds of thousands of Democratic dollars, had Sen. Mark Warner campaign on his behalf and still got thumped, again, by Ralph Smith. In a different district, no less. Once again, vanity takes it on the chin.
* We won’t have Ward Armstrong to kick around any more (unless he carries out his plan to run statewide in 2013). Not all of the money he could spend, nor all lies he could weave were capable of saving his career. Good riddance. Look for the next House minority leader to be from Northern Virginia.
* The Henrico GOP was too clever by half. Jettisoning its nominee for Commonwealth’s Attorney in favor of an independent bid from former Del. Bill Janis split the Republican vote and delivered the win to Democrat Shannon Taylor. Now that’s some first class strategery…
* Senator-elect Tom Garrett proved to be a stronger candidate than my sources indicated him to be (save Scott Lee, who never had a doubt).
* Roscoe Reynolds will now have to do crossword puzzles on his own time, rather than on the people’s dime in Senate Finance committee meetings.
And lastly, that the people here – contributors and comment writers alike – are the best in the state. And a special shout out to Jim Hoeft, for making, and keeping, this forum possible.
So. Who’s up for some 2012 action?
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About the author
Norm Leahy has written about Virginia and national politics online since 2002, beginning with One Man's Trash (OMT), and continuing through Bacon's Rebellion (both the blog and the e-zine), Sic Semper Tyrannis, NBC12's Decision Virginia, Richmond.com and Tertium Quids. He is the chief blogger at "The Score" and a producer of "The Score" radio show as well as being a Washington Examiner contributor.
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Comments
17 Responses to "A few takeaways from a long night"
Im betting Roscoe and Edd are wishing they had gotten some of that $200,000 spent on Bell’s race…
Yup. Ward could have used it to really teach those big boys a lesson or something.
Surprised that Tom Garrett did so well… genuinely am. A lot of balls floating in the air all at once. Whether he can hang on in four years may be an issue — but for one, I’ll volunteer that I was way off on the dynamic in Lynchburg.
Not terribly surprised at the rest of the results. I expected wider margins for Stanley and Reeves, but did not expect Frederick to carry the day. Black was solid, Ramadan was razor thin (50 votes?!)…
Still, the GOP did not walk away with this at all. Tough, tough night. A few wins, yes… and a flip in control… but nothing that would amount to a resounding victory. Just a slight nudge in the body politic, it would seem.
Maybe the new Virginia Senate will adjust these lines to make more sense, rather than the haggled gerrymandering we received from Senate Democrats? Or is that pretty much nailed down now?
Norm,
I could not agree more with your third bullet. Despite the best efforts to create safe Senate districts, the Democrats could not save their majority. To me, that is a glass half full rather than a disappointment over only flipping two seats.
As to Shaun’s question, it is my understanding that redistricting is a done deal until after the next census and the Commonwealth is stuck with this abomination until then. If anyone knows differently, please correct me. I would love to be wrong.
One more take away: the Republicans swept Loudoun County next door, even turning out Independent Jim Burton who has been the Blue Ridge supervisor since 1996 and has served four terms. I wish that the Fairfax Republicans could have had the same success with the Connolly Democrats who are trying their best to make Fairfax County another Greece.
Correction: second bullet.
“A few things I think I learned from last night’s election returns:* It’s never over till it’s over. ”
Especially when there is a recount. And there are Dems.
BTW Shaun is the one closest to the mark.
As far as redistricting goes, I believe that Senate Democrats held out on approving the redistricting proposal for the Congressional delegation. The plan was agreed to by all 11 Republican and Democrat Virginia Congressmen, but the Senate Democrats blocked the plan, meaning the General Assembly will have to reconsider redistricting to approve a plan for the Congressional delegation.
By blocking the plan, Senate Democrats- now in the minority- may have opened the door to revising the map for the State Senate.
Texas passed a mid-decade redistricting plan in 2003, and the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the statewide redistricting, so this is probably not a done deal.
Tim,
That’s interesting. Now that you mention it, I do remember the squabble over the Texas redistricting and it stuck. Personally, I would like to see a bi-partisan redistricting commission whose recommendations must be voted up or down in total. No system can be perfect, but that would be better than what we have. Of course, we could fix the Senate by adopting the system some other states have: each county has one senator elected at large, period. Of course, in Virginia we would have to deal with the independent cities that don’t reside in a county.
BTW, val. Cruise over to Blue Virginia. Lowell Feld and his fellow smurfs have apparently conceded 20-20.
Also, there is some very good reading over at Smurf Virginia this morning. The circular firing squad has already formed with Brian Moran in the center.
“The essence of life is to see your enemies driven before you and to hear the lament of their women.”
-Conan the Barbarian
Not sure if I mentioned in the live blog or here or in private, but I have been on Moran watch for at least two weeks. My guess is the next DPVA chair is Chap Petersen or Creigh Deeds. But that’s for another thread.
Norm, thanks for the shout out. I appreciate what everyone provides here – even Mike Barrett – who I might note is conspicuoulsy quiet this morning.
Oh – and I agree with Shaun. While the GOP got an uptick, it was not a game-changer. There’s a lot of work ahead in 2012. GOP candidates did receive 60% of the vote, but it was in an off-year and GOP voters were motivated. Let’s see if that translates in the next cycle.
Jim,
That is a very astute observation for a Hampton Roads guy. I live in Chap Petersen’s district and have met him more than once. I would say that you are spot on. Three reasons. Chap is personable and popular both in the Democratic Party and with Independents; he is not a blue dog, but he isn’t a drooling liberal like the Arlington and Alexandria Democrats. Chap is ambitious beyond the state Senate. And northern Virginia is the center of gravity of the Virginia Democrats. Deeds I wouldn’t bet on.
Just to clarify, my last comment was in no way a dig at Hampton Roads. I was born and grew up there and now have lived in Fairfax County for almost 20 years. The political climate of the two regions is about as different as it can be. Sometimes I understand comments and threads about the Tidewater and sometimes they go over my head because I haven’t lived there for so long. I’m just impressed that a blogger living in the Tidewater has such situational awareness about our NoVa politicians.
I think this demonstrates the general power of redistricting; it was a Republican night that witnessed a +7 gain in the House and pick-ups in the Senate to get us to an even 20. However, if the Dems were running in seats as they were previously drawn, we definitely would have won the 1st (Miller seat) and probably at least 1 or 2 others.
The one major item that the “mainstream media” will gloss over is the fact that in Ohio, when nothing was on the ballot driving turnout but the union / collective bargaining issue, voted DOWN the individual mandate of Obamacare. That means that the majority of UNION DEMOCRATS in Ohio effectively shot down the President’s signature piece of legislation from his first term in office.
If I’m the White House, I would not be pleased at ALL about the results.
“* Gerrymandering saved the Senate Democrats from a debacle of epic proportions. Conversely, House Republicans used it to pump their caucus up to record levels. How will this color the usual bleatings for non-partisan redistricting?”
- Hopefully we’ll have non-partisan redistricting next time around. The arguments for it are overwhelming. How anyone can believes gerrymandering is beneficial to anyone other than elected officials is beyond me. This should have been fixed long, long ago.
ToR,
I agree with you, but given your Democratic leanings you should be careful what you wish for. Non-partisan redistricting in Virginia would put the present-day Democratic Party in the minority for many, many years. The fact that the Senate Democrats had their way and still lost two seats speaks volumes about the state-wide popularity of the liberal message.
Rocky,
That could very well be the case, but I’d prefer to stick to my morals than be represented by a Democrat or have a tie in the state senate.
Non-partisan redistricting is part of moving our country out of the mess we’re in.
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