Magazine: Senate Election Analysis & Predictions

By Bearing Drift | Tuesday, November 1st, 2011 | Magazine, Politics

This was written originally for Bearing Drift Magazine in late September for our October issue; however, most of the information contained is still valid. Heading into the last week of the General Assembly campaign, we invite you to make your own predictions about the outcomes in the comment thread and cherry-pick on some of things we might have gotten wrong when we looked into our crystal ball over a month ago.

Article by Brian Kirwin, Jim Riley, Shaun Kenney, Jason Johnson, Norm Leahy, Eve Marie Gleason, Brian Schoeneman, and J.R. Hoeft. Edited by J.R. Hoeft.

Every four years, the entire General Assembly is up for election, which is the case this year. However, what makes this particular election so intriguing is the State Senate and it’s narrow Democratic majority (22-18).

If it were as simple as the Republicans merely “picking up” two seats, then the likelihood of the GOP regaining the majority would be pretty good in the current electoral climate.

However, this is the first election following redistricting, and Senate Democrats have not made it easy on Republicans.

In fact, Republicans were redistricted outright of two seats, creating two open seats. And, a Republican senator (Sen. Bill Stanley) was drawn into a longtime Democratic Senator’s district (Sen. Roscoe Reynolds).

But Republicans have risen to the challenge. While only three of the GOP’s 16 incumbents seeking reelection face a Democrat opponent (and one of those three is Stanley), 16 of 20 Democratic incumbents are facing GOP opponents.

If Republicans successfully regain the majority, the story will be that strong candidate recruitment was able to overcome partisan redistricting.

In what follows, the Bearing Drift team of contributors takes a look at the districts where there is likely to be the most competitive and, perhaps, the most interesting campaigns.

While we have labeled the outlook for some of these races as “leans Democratic”, it hardly means that seat is unwinnable for the GOP. All it means is that the Republican faces some obstacles based on various campaign criteria, such as incumbency, demographics, fundraising and organization. But those obstacles certainly can be overcome.

1st — John Miller (D) vs. Mickey Chohany (R)
Outlook: Toss Up
The 1st District is the one that got away. In 2007, long-time activist Tricia Stall upset incumbent Sen. Marty Williams in a primary in a year when Republicans were getting pasted over transportation authorities, taxes, and abuser fees. The district was heavily Republican, but was won, barely, by Democrat John Miller who walked the “conservative line” throughout the campaign.

Miller never campaigned on raising taxes specifically, saying only he supported a “statewide solution.” He actually campaigned on a 20% real estate tax cut. But that proposal, which sounded good on the trail, has never found its way into bill form during Miller’s term.

But the tax increases sure did!

Miller’s SB684, introduced during the 2010 legislative session, would have raised all sorts of fuel taxes, so many, that even his fellow Democrats allowed it to die in the Finance Committee. Other catch-all tax hike measures (like Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw’s onerous transportation financing bill, SB6009) also enjoyed Miller’s strong support. It would’ve been nice if First District voters knew what sort of tax hiker they were getting before the 2007 election. But now they’ve had four years to see Miller for what he really is.

Republican Mickey Chohany offers a different vision. Instead of John Miller’s quests for higher taxes, Chohany wants to reduce them and attract jobs. He wants to lighten the burden on small businesses so they can hire more people and create more economic activity.

It’s a nice contrast from the current Senator.

Chohany offers a strong conservative message including energy independence policies, quality-focused education and strong stances on illegal immigration and innocent human life.

Mickey Chohany has the resume to back up his stances. With over 25 years’ experience as an owner of multiple businesses and a record of leadership serving on the Williamsburg City Council, Chohany has a broad constituency throughout the district.

But redistricting was kind to John Miller. Eliminating conservative precincts in Poquoson, Hampton and York County made the district much more favorable to him. But doing so meant extending the district all the way up to Williamsburg and opening the door to Chohany’s challenge. On paper, it looks like the new lines help Democrats. With a former Williamsburg City Councilman running, that might not be the case.

For Chohany to win, he needs to run-up big margins in his Williamsburg-area base, while convincing Newport News Republicans to turn out. If that happens, it will be a long night for John Miller. Right now, all the metrics are in place for Republicans regaining this seat in 2011.

6th — Ralph Northam (D) v. Ben Loyola (R)
Outlook: Toss Up
Ben Loyola has lived the American Dream. Sure, lots of politicians say similar things, but Loyola is the real deal.

His family fled Communist Cuba when he was a year old as Fidel Castro seized power. His father had served in the Cuban Navy, and was sentenced to death for his refusal to bow to Castro’s rule, but his father escaped, and the family was reunited in America.

Loyola attended the U.S. Naval Academy and eventually attained the rank of Captain. He flew A-6 Intruders out of Virginia’s Oceana Naval Air Station and was home-ported at Norfolk Naval Station. He flew in anti-terrorists missions, notably bringing to justice the Palestine Liberation Front terrorists who hijacked the Achille Lauro. The terrorists killed wheelchair-bound Leon Klinghoffer and were given asylum and safe passage aboard a plane to Egypt. President Ronald Reagan ordered them intercepted, and that’s exactly what Loyola and his fellow aviators did (though an Italian court later released them, only to turn around and sentence the group’s leader, Abu Abbas, to five life sentences in absentia. Abbas was later captured by U.S. forces in Iraq).

Loyola also started an engineering firm, Loyola Enterprises, is Hampton Roads, which was named one of “Virginia’s Fantastic 50” small businesses by the Virginia Chamber of Commerce. He’s a job creator, a combat veteran, and a strong fiscal conservative.

His opponent, Democratic incumbent Sen. Ralph Northam, is the guy who beat Republican Sen. Nick Rerras in 2007 in one of the worst cycles for Republicans we’ve ever seen. The Northam/Rerras contest sometimes got nasty. In one bizarre episode, Northam seized on comments Rerras made regarding the mentally ill to change that Rerras would view brain injured or mentally ill Iraq War veterans as demon-possessed.

In the current campaign, Northam has put on the same pseudo-conservative mask he wore in 2007. But his Senate record tells otherwise. He’s been a reliable vote for higher sales and gas taxes. He racks up perfect ratings from the National Abortion Rights Action League. And he cast one of the few NO votes on a bill to protect Virginians from Obamacare.

Pretty left-wing for a district that was won by Bob McDonnell and Scott Rigell.

Most Democrats aren’t rushing to line up with Barack Obama this year, but Northam has happily done so. In a recent Daily Press column, Northam argued that his vote against the “Protection from Obamacare” bill was the right one.

Even his own caucus has reason to question Northam’s actions. In 2009, rumors swirled around Capitol Square that Northam was upset over a procedural matter and was going to switch parties. This would have resulted in a 20-20 partisan split in the Senate, depriving the Democrats of their last bastion of power in Richmond. It took the intervention of then-Governor (and Democratic National Committee chairman) Tim Kaine to talk Northam down and back into the Democratic fold.

Contrast that whipsaw pettiness with Ben Loyola’s campaign. Instead of bowing to more federal mandates, Loyola touts free market choices that create jobs and competition. He believes in balanced budgets, lower taxes and private sector dynamism. In short: Loyola is in-sync with the district. Northam is at odds even with his friends.

The 6th district is virtually all coastline, including the Eastern Shore, Mathews county, and parts of Norfolk and Virginia Beach. Loyola’s educational background, marine engineering, is perfectly suited for the district.

13th – Shawn Mitchell (D) vs. Dick Black (R)
Outlook: Leans Republican
Two veterans and small business owners are vying for the open 13th District Senate seat. Despite superficial similarities in their resumes, Dick Black and Shawn Mitchell have widely different approaches to the challenges facing Northern Virginia and their districts.

Mitchell’s discussion of the issues is long on catch phrases and short on specifics. While we are glad that he supports smaller public school class sizes, reducing traffic and incentivizing job creation, we are disappointed that he provides us with no clue as to how he would use the position of state senator to accomplish those goals.

Mitchell has attempted to cast Black as out-of-touch with the district: “We know from Dick Black’s eight years in Richmond that he is more interested in causing controversy than solving problems and will put his social agenda ahead of fixing the economy and creating jobs in Loudoun and Prince William Counties,” Mitchell wrote in a press release regarding Black’s victory.

Black, on the other hand, has not only position statements, but a strong pro-business, pro-economic growth record as a member of the House of Delegates. While other candidates have talked about reducing congestion, Black has been part of the solution by helping bring overpasses to the Rt. 28 corridor. Black, who moved from Sterling to suburban Leesburg to run for the seat, lives and breathes consistent conservative principles.

Black has also been aggressively confronting the challenge of campaigning in an area where most voters do not remember his tenure in the House of Delegates. Should the GOP re-capture the state senate with his help, Northern Virginians will find Black to be a strong advocate for regional transportation projects, right-to-work laws and the reasonable tax rates which help keep the local economy strong.

The newly-created 13th State Senate district in Northern Virginia is targeted by the Republican Party of Virginia and important to the GOP’s plan to re-take the state Senate. It is the relocated district of former Sen. Fred Quayle, a Hampton Roads Republican, and was the site of one of the most expensive Republican state senate primaries this year. South and west of Black’s old house district, the new 13th stretches across Western Loudoun and Northern Prince William counties. The suburban and semi-rural communities of the district largely voted for John McCain in 2008 and Bob McDonnell in 2009. After a grueling primary, Black entered the general election season with slightly more cash on hand ($22,779) than Mitchell ($17,636). While both candidates are raising money aggressively, Black has the advantages of a favorable district and historical relationships with Republican donors, while Democrat dollars will be focused on defending their vulnerable incumbents from challengers.

17th — Edd Houck (D) vs. Bryce Reeves (R)
Outlook: Leans Democratic
Edd Houck has long been a thorn in the side of the Republican-leaning 17th State Senate. While Republicans consistently carry Spotsylvania County by some 60% or more in national and state elections, Houck seemingly defies the odds — and against some of the most credible candidates Republicans could have possibly fielded at the time.

This year, the old 17th District gerrymandered itself into something of a bastard child between a garden variety pitchfork and a gremlin, stretching to reach vital constituencies that would either rob Republicans of key parts of Spotsylvania, or be just balanced enough where Houck’s “fake right, run left” voting record would still squeak by with the one-two combination punch of the “October surprise” of nasty opposition research (and a willing and compliant Free Lance-Star editorial staff to echo the attack) followed by the NRA endorsement shortly thereafter.

This year’s opposition on paper looks like a sure fire winner. Bryce Reeves is a State Farm agent with a military service record who has run for public office once before, losing handily to former sheriff-turned-supervisor T.C. Waddy, who is an institution unto himself. This time, Reeves began early, opening a Victory office in the heart of Spotsylvania and courting early support from RPV as well as Governor McDonnell’s office.

That’s where the good news stops.

Reeves to date has had a difficult time raising and keeping money. Houck meanwhile has benefited hugely from his previous employment with Fredericksburg City Public Schools, but also working for the last few years with the regional powerhouse MediCorp while serving on the Health and Education Committee for the Virginia Senate. As Houck has called in his favors, his longtime established name ID has proven to be a massive hill to climb.

Reeves has been pulling it together as of late. The key to success has always been to unite the ability to raise enough money to trump the good ol’ boy network between public education, the health care industry, and the Free Lance-Star while uniting the evangelical and Catholic churches and driving them out to the polls on election day with solid reasons to vote against Houck — not just riding the wave of anti-incumbent hostility. There is little evidence that Houck’s tried and true “October surprise” will work in an environment tired of negative campaigning and “gotcha politics” in the post-macaca era. Worse still for Houck, the NRA endorsement just doesn’t mean as much as it used to, and a former Army Ranger will be able to carry the values of true 2nd Amendment voters with much more gravitas than a bureaucrat.

Reeves will have to put together a serious fundraising effort in the last few weeks of the campaign to pay for the air campaign that will be necessary to drown out the twin megaphones of Houck’s warchest and the Free Lance-Star’s ink by the barrel and paper by the ton. It’s possible… and it’s uphill running, but for an Army Ranger, that’s nothing Reeves hasn’t seen before and tackled in style.

20th District – Roscoe Reynolds (D) vs. Bill Stanley (R) vs. Jeff Evans (I)
Outlook: Leans Republican
Roscoe Reynolds has represented Southside Virginia’s 20th Senate District since 1997. During his tenure in the state Senate, the Southside’s once-vibrant manufacturing economy has hemorrhaged jobs to the point that the region now suffers from some of the Commonwealth’s highest unemployment rates. Through it all, Sen. Reynolds has coasted to reelection year after year. 2011 could be a different story.

Bill Stanley, the dynamic Franklin County attorney and chairman of the 5th Congressional District Republican Committee, was handily elected to fill Robert Hurt’s unexpired term after Rep. Hurt’s resignation from the state Senate last winter. Although his time in the Senate has been brief, Stanley has distinguished himself as a rising star in the GOP and one of the Senate’s most unapologetic conservative voices. For these reasons, Sen. Stanley was expected to be a target of Senate Democrats when they unveiled their redistricting plan. While his district was reconfigured, it remained strongly Republican and, unlike his colleagues Sens. Newman and Smith, Stanley did not find another senator living within his district’s boundaries. Ultimately, Sen. Ralph Smith expressed an interest in moving into the 19th District to avoid a divisive primary with Sen. Steve Newman so Sen. Stanley agreed to move to another property that he already owned in Franklin County (just a few miles from his previous residence) situated in the adjacent 20th Senate District.

In a September interview with The Roanoke Times, Sen. Reynolds eschews the liberal label that has been applied to him: “In past campaigns, opponents have misrepresented me as a liberal and the people I represent know that I am not…. I try to be middle of the road and I think my voting record shows that that’s about where I am….” (That might come as a surprise to both the Virginia Trial Lawyers’ Association and the Virginia State AFL-CIO, both of whom have donated to the Reynolds campaign during this cycle.) Sen. Reynolds is partially correct in that he occasionally breaks with the leadership of his party, as he did in 2010 when he voted with the GOP on the Healthcare Freedom Act.

While his occasional votes are good, Bill Stanley contends that the 20th District is suffering from some chronic problems that have only been exacerbated by Sen. Reynolds’ party. During the fourteen years that Roscoe Reynolds has represented the 20th District, state spending has increased 73 percent; the district’s unemployment numbers are even worse: Carroll, Henry and Patrick Counties have all seen unemployment rates increase during Sen. Reynolds’ term—today all three localities have unemployment rates at or above the national average). The unemployment rate in the City of Martinsville has increased almost one percent point for every year Sen. Reynolds has been in the state Senate. “This cannot stand. …It’s time to bring economic prosperity back to Southside,” Stanley declares. Stanley pledges to use conservative ideas, like eliminating unnecessary regulations and improving the quality of Virginia’s schools, to solve the 20th District’s problems by making the Southside competitive again.

Standing between Sen. Stanley and the one-on-one contest he wants with Sen. Reynolds is Jeff Evans, the 2007 Republican nominee. After withdrawing from the Republican race in June, Evans ultimately filed to run for the 20th District seat as an independent. Evans was expected to complicate Sen. Stanley’s battle plan by dividing the already limited conservative vote in the district; getting “outside the margin of Evans,” as one district political observer noted, is the key to unseating Roscoe Reynolds. This task got significantly easier in August while as a guest on a local talk radio show, Evans, a retired Virginia State Policeman, admitted to mistreating suspects in his custody before becoming a Christian. Bearing Drift’s Shaun Kenney rightly noted that district voters will likely be less forgiving when going to the polls on Election Day.

Sen. Stanley was the first candidate in the race to get campaign ads on the air (in August), but he is he is trailing in the money race. Gov. McDonnell is strongly supportive of Bill Stanley; his Opportunity Virginia PAC has contributed over $93,000 to the Stanley campaign. The governor’s endorsement could be an important boost in a district that gave McDonnell nearly 60 percent of its votes in 2009, even as redistricting made the 20th District less Republican than it was before.

Make no mistake: this seat will not be an easy pick-up for the GOP. The 20th District contains the strongly Democrat city of Martinsville so if Bill Stanley is to unseat Roscoe Reynolds, he must win the race in the district’s rural areas. If Sen. Stanley can tie his opponent to the unpopular national Democrats—especially by contrasting the successes of the McDonnell-Stanley record in Richmond to the failures of the Obama-Pelosi-Reid record in Washington—and can turnout rural voters from the district’s rural communities, Bill Stanley’s star will only continue to rise in Virginia politics.

21st – John Edwards (D) vs. Dave Nutter (R)
Outlook: Toss Up
John Edwards, an attorney and retired Marine captain, has represented the Roanoke-anchored 21st District since the first term of the Clinton Administration (1996). Over the years, Sen. Edwards’ liberalism has annoyed area conservatives, but efforts to oust him have proven futile, as he has faced opposition only once and even when running unopposed, Sen. Edwards consistently garners more than 21,000 votes. On paper, redistricting only made the 21st District slightly more Republican than it has been for the past decade (VPAP rates the new 21st District as 0.2 percent more Republican than the old 21st District was). In fact, the district was considered so reliably Democratic that some prominent local Republicans are rumored to have declined the opportunity to challenge Sen. Edwards.

The dauntless task of unseating Sen. Edwards was not enough to dissuade the Roanoke Tea Party from fielding insurance agent Tripp Godsey as a candidate for the Republican nomination. In mid-June, Del. Dave Nutter of Christiansburg, decided to vacate his safe seat in the House of Delegates to challenge Edwards. After a hotly contested primary, Del. Nutter bested Godsey.

The primary results reflected what everyone familiar with the district suspected: Nutter can clean up in the New River Valley (NRV) portion of the district—which he has represented in the House for almost a decade—but needs to increase his name recognition in the Roanoke area. An analysis of the district by Roanoke Times concluded that, despite the 21st District’s reputation as a Roanoke-based district, the City of Roanoke accounts for only 44 percent of the district’s votes—ironically the exact same percentage as the NRV (including the liberal college town of Blacksburg). The remaining 22 percent comes from reliably Republican Roanoke County.

While these numbers may look good for Del. Nutter on paper, the challenge for him will be two-fold: turn out a sufficient number of voters from his conservative base in the NRV to match Sen. Edwards’ Roanoke City base almost vote-for-vote and increase his name recognition outside of the NRV. Dave Nutter’s work in the economic development office at Virginia Tech makes his a familiar face to Roanoke area business leaders, but he will need more votes than those if he hopes to unseat a 15-year incumbent. Del. Nutter also needs to win the trust of Tea Partiers—especially in the leadership of Roanoke’s influential Tea Party—after a hard-fought primary.

When John Edwards formally announced his reelection bid in late August, he stated that his campaign would focus on creating jobs by promoting investments in education and transportation. He was also sharply critical of Gov. McDonnell and House Republicans for cutting the state budget. Given Del. Nutter’s background in economic development, expect sparks to fly on the campaign trail as these candidates debate the best way to promote job growth in both the 21st District and the Commonwealth.
In this off off-year election, victory will likely hinge upon which candidate has the most dedicated support base. Expect this race to be issue-oriented and sharp. The safe bet is Leans Democrat, but it could become Toss Up or Leans Republican before Election Day.

22nd — Tom Garrett (R) vs. Bert Dotson (D)
Outlook: Toss Up
Bert Dotson has $150K in the bank. Tom Garrett has less than $9K in the bank. ‘Nuff said?

Let’s make matters worse: Garrett has yet to perform the “victory lap” after a bruising five-way primary to win the GOP nod. In a district where Garrett hails from the wrong side of the James River (north) while his opponent is in the beating heart of Lynchburg, every vote and every contact — especially from those who were formerly opponents — should be precious. What’s more, the district consists of a 25% African-American demographic that has been told that Tea Party candidates want to run roughshod over just about everything and everyone. Garrett proudly carried the Tea Party banner, and it will be difficult to make the case otherwise with this important community.

Still, it’s not entirely bleak for Garrett. The district still leans Republican by 5-7 points with Garrett not favored to win the primary, with even this publication dismissing the possibility of Garrett’s eventual razor thin victory in the August primary. Garrett was outspent nearly 4 to 1 in the primary by his opponents and still carried the day. Moreover, while the Tea Party may not be to everyone’s political taste, there is no question the movement is tasting victory — picking up steam and training new recruits on the march. As the Tea Party matures, so does their political sophistication, even as their numbers bleed off due to infighting.

Still, Dodson has all the advantages right now — save one. Dodson has money, name ID through a successful extermination business, no major media markets to surprise at the last minute, and a split and fractured GOP post-primary. What Dodson does lack is professional campaign management. Mom-and-pop might be enough to carry a campaign with a 15-to-1 spending advantage, but should Garrett pull off the same wild card campaign as he did in August, the political edge may very well go to the best staffed candidate. While Dodson is a newcomer to politics, Garrett is an experienced campaigner not just under his own banner as Louisa Commonwealth’s Attorney, but as a former field staffer with Bob McDonnell for Attorney General.

Yet miracles are called this precisely because of their rarity, and not because of their everyday occurrence. Garrett will have to have several aces in the hole in order to combat a well-financed effort to take an open seat in the beating heart of Virginia’s 5th Congressional District. DPVA will most certainly be pouring resources into what may be one bright light in what will otherwise be a very dismal night for Democrats in Virginia, if not to compliment Democrat Connie Brennan’s strong candidacy for the 59th HOD.

Dodson may not run the best campaign money can buy, but it’ll be enough to beat Garrett handily unless there are serious and substantial changes in the campaign dynamic south of the James.

31st – Barbara Favola (D) vs. Caren Merrick (R)
Outlook: Leans Democratic
Few Senate districts were more gerrymandered by the Senate Democratic Caucus than the 31st Senate District. Arguably designed to protect Janet Howell by moving strong Republican candidate Caren Merrick out of the 32nd Senate district, the new lines create one of the most schizophrenic districts in Virginia. The eastern portion of the seat encompasses most of Arlington, running west along the Potomac River, picking up the affluent Great Falls and Langley areas in Fairfax County and terminating in eastern Loudoun County. Each community has radically different core issues and that means that candidates running there need to have at least three tailored messages in order to appeal to all three areas. What’s worse, Arlington has long been antagonistic to Fairfax and Loudoun, particularly in areas like transportation, where Arlington benefits from the METRO system and an urban community, while Fairfax and Loudoun are primarily commuter oriented.

In any other district, Republican Caren Merrick would be a shoo-in for the seat. She’s dynamic, hard working, and has been able to raise considerable funds, thanks in part to her success in business and also to the fact that she didn’t have a primary opponent. She’s managed to raise almost $250,000 for the seat and still has half of it on-hand for the sprint to the finish. And she also got a welcome present in the form of Democrat Barbara Favola, a fourteen year veteran of Arlington’s County Board, who managed to win a brutal Democratic primary against progressive challenger Jaime Areizaga-Soto, but nearly bankrupted her campaign in the process. Favola has outraised Merrick, raising nearly $300,000 for the race, but only has $14,000 left following the primary. Given that Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw has made winning this race a priority – going so far as to endorse Favola in the primary and give her almost $20,000 in contributions – this is one of the Democrats’ top races and we can expect significant help to be dropped on Favola in the coming weeks.

According to the Associated Press, “Republican Caren Merrick began September with $125,464 in the bank to Favola’s $14,659,” which was an excellent early advantage. But Favola will have plenty raised by the end of the campaign to make a difference.

Favola has been beset with a number of issues, and she made a variety of gaffes during the primary. Most prominent were charges of a pay-to-play scandal involving towing interests in Arlington that had business before the Arlington County Board. She was attacked viciously by the netroots on the left, but in the end she ended up winning the primary in a landslide 65-35%.

Regardless, the biggest issue in the district is purely demographics. This is a Democratic majority seat, if only because the vast majority of the population in the district comes from Arlington, which makes up 58% of the district, Fairfax coming in at 29.5% and Loudoun at 12.5%. Merrick’s base of support is focused on Fairfax, Favola’s on Arlington. And given the knee-jerk propensity of Arlington to vote for the Democrat no matter how bad they may be – this is the heart of Jim Moran’s 8th District, and Arlington went nearly 72% for Barack Obama in 2008 – the numbers just don’t work out well for Merrick.

Democrat Sen. Mary Margaret Whipple represented this district since 1996 before resigning this year. This is a battleground race that Republicans will be competitive in. Favola seems to be trying to run a purely get-out-the-vote campaign at this point, and that may be enough for her to win in November. While Merrick is still strong and Favola has a tendency to make unforced errors, the outlook in the 31st is leans Democratic.

36th – Linda “Toddy” Puller (D) vs. Jeff Frederick (R)
Outlook: Leans Republican
If there is any district in the Commonwealth that can be termed a bell weather this year, it is this one. Looking at the redrawn 36th district makes one wonder exactly what Janet Howell was thinking when Senate Democrats created this district for incumbent Toddy Puller as the changes to it only increased its Democratic tilt by 0.7%.

However, that does not tell the full story as this is based upon an average of 2008 and 2009 election results. Given the anomaly of the 2008 presidential election in some of these precincts where President Obama carried traditional GOP strongholds that turned around and gave Governor McDonnell 25-point margins of victory the following year, that 0.7% increase for Democrats is likely more of a decrease in this off- off-year election where state senate is the top of the ticket. Overall, the district went from being a McCain 36% / Gilmore 28% district in 2008 to a McDonnell 49% / Bolling 46% / Cuccinelli 46% district in 2009. Any state senate district where Ken Cuccinelli takes 46% can hardly be viewed as a safe Democrat seat.

Furthermore, the new district added some very heavily Republican precincts in Prince William County that traditionally have strong turnout no matter the election year. Montclair, Pattie, Washington-Reid and Ashland are four monster Republican precincts that have been added to the district while Democratic sections of Dale City have been removed. Plus for the first time, the majority jurisdiction within the 36th is Prince William County with 53%. Fairfax has fallen to second with 41% and Stafford County makes up the final 6%. As soon as these lines were unveiled, more than one person looked at them and noted that the heart of this district looked an awful lot like the old 52nd House District.

One of the people who saw that right away is former Del. Jeff Frederick who represented the 52nd for three terms in Richmond before opting against running for reelection in 2009. (The irony here is Frederick moved within the old 52nd, but out of the 36th and redistricting drew him back in.) With Frederick as the Republican nominee, the path to victory for Puller becomes harder, not easier.

Jeff has either been very competitive in or won outright several of the blue precincts within the 36th during his three general election victories (including the difficult years for Republicans of 2007 and 2005 when he was the only Republican to carry his district, running ahead of both Bolling and McDonnell that year.) Contrary to the statewide caricature of him, time and again Frederick has demonstrated his crossover appeal with the voters in his district and cemented those relationships with second-to-none constituent services and his door-to-door campaigning. Go to a Frederick event and you will probably see cars with Obama bumper stickers on them.

Meanwhile, Puller was unopposed in 2007 and thus has not been politically visible to a large segment of the district since her last contested race in 2003. Furthermore, the population in these areas has exploded since Puller last actively campaigned eight years ago and even some of those homes have seen two or three owners come and go in that time given the transient nature of the area with lots of military personnel and contractors. Due to a stroke that Puller suffered several years ago, she is unable to match Frederick in the personal door-to-door campaigning. Instead she is relying heavily upon direct mail pieces touting her time as a teacher and her deceased father-in-law and late estranged husband’s service in the Marine Corps.

While her mailers are good, Frederick’s are even better. He has consistently had the very best direct mail pieces of any candidate due to the brilliant work of Brent Barksdale at Jamestown Associates. Barksdale has done every single one of Jeff’s races since his first one back in 2003 when he defeated Del. Jack Rollison in the GOP primary.

What we have in the 36th is essentially a battle between two incumbents – Puller, who many voters do not know she even represents them, and Frederick, who many voters still think he is their delegate on account of the invisibility of his successor. The slight Democratic edge in this district is partially offset by geography with Puller being the Fairfax candidate and Frederick the Prince William candidate. Frederick’s door-to-door campaigning and fundraising ability added to that makes this an even match. Voters turning out to reelect Corey Stewart as Prince William County Board Chairman and a strong Republican challenger for the Woodbridge Supervisor seat may provide the extra shot Frederick can use to get across the finish line.

37th – Dave Marsden (D) vs. Jason Flanary (R)
Outlook: Leans Democratic
Another gerrymandered beauty, the 37th State Senate seat winds like a snake through central Fairfax County, going from Chantilly in the west through Centreville, Springfield, Burke and resting just inside the beltway in Annandale. The race pits former Republican Dave Marsden, who served as a delegate from the 41st District against newcomer Jason Flanary.

Marsden won the seat in a special election against former Fairfax County School Board member Steve Hunt in 2010. The seat was up thanks to Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s election in 2009. The Marsden/Hunt race was close, coming down to a handful of votes at the end of a bruising cycle that left most activists and party stalwarts exhausted.

Despite Hunt’s name recognition, he faced a tough primary from Flanary, a Marine, former Capitol Hill staffer and small business owner who also served as a lobbyist for the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce and a staffer for Delegate Tim Hugo in Richmond. Thanks to Flanary’s impressive ground game, where he knocked on over seven thousand doors, he pulled off the win against Hunt. Hunt wasn’t able to raise significant amounts of money and his door knocking efforts were dwarfed by Flanary’s efforts. Hunt’s loss to Marsden in the special was also an albatross around Hunt’s neck that he couldn’t recover from.

Marsden took advantage of the Republican primary and has been engaged in an aggressive door-knocking campaign as well, and he has managed to raise almost a quarter of a million dollars for his reelection. Flanary raised almost $100,000 and was able to put aside some for the general, but Marsden has a significant cash advantage. Fortunately, this race has been steadily increasing in profile thanks to Flanary’s door knocking strategy, and his campaign crossed over the 10,000 doors knocked figure last week. It’s expected that the Governor and the Senate Caucus will be working hard to win this seat.

At the same time, Marsden can expect serious help from the Democrats, who helped him the most by reducing the number of Republicans in the district through redistricting. While the old 37th was carried by Bob McDonnell with almost 57%, the new 37th was carried by McDonnell with slightly more than 53% of the vote. This makes the district a toss-up, and that favors the incumbent, especially given the shortness of the cycle. Overall, our outlook is that this seat leans Democratic, but if there are any major upsets in Northern Virginia this year, this seat has that potential written all over it.

38th – Phil Puckett (D) vs. Adam Light
Outlook: Leans Republican
As issues like Cap-and-Trade have revealed the national Democratic Party to be unsympathetic to the coal industry and, by extension, the livelihood of thousands of southwestern Virginians, the region has developed into fertile ground for Republican pick-ups, as evidenced by the recent victories of Del. Will Morefield and Rep. Morgan Griffith, as well as the continued popularity of Del. Annie B. Crockett-Starke in southwestern Virginia. The region’s recent electoral trajectory appears to make 13-year incumbent Sen. Phil Puckett vulnerable this November.

Sen. Puckett, who has not faced opposition since 1998, now faces a strong challenge from Republican Adam Light, a Tazewell County businessman and prominent local Tea Party activist. To say that Light has maintained a busy schedule since announcing his intentions to run in February would be an understatement as he has crisscrossed the district attending everything from the Russell County Coal Festival and the National Wild Turkey Federation banquet to Republican unit committee meetings and Tea Party rallies. Light has been joined on the trail by Republican luminaries like Rep. Morgan Griffith and Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling. Light has also earned the support of The Presidential Coalition, a Washington-based affiliate of the conservative non-profit Citizens United, which made a $5,000 donation to his campaign in June—one of only five Virginia Senate candidates it has supported during the 2011 cycle.

Adam Light’s campaign also enjoys the support of Gov. Bob McDonnell’s Opportunity Virginia PAC.

That having been said, Sen. Puckett will be difficult to beat. A fixture of far southwestern Virginia politics for more than a decade, and despite mounting a losing bid for his party’s nomination for Lieutenant Governor in 2005 and announcing plans to seek a leadership post in the next General Assembly, Puckett is perceived as a moderately conservative senator—the kind of old-line Democrat that has (historically) thrived in the region. This image is aided by his record as a crucial swing vote on several of the Republican caucus’ highest legislative priorities over the past two years, including the Health Care Freedom Act and SB 924. Another vote for a Republican-backed eminent domain reform bill earned him glowing praise from the Virginia Tea Party Patriots Federation. Redistricting has also made the 38th modestly more favorable to the incumbent than it was before.

Both campaigns have been honing their attacks throughout the summer, with Adam Light linking Sen. Puckett to President Obama and the EPA following the announcement that AEP will close one coal-burning power plant in Giles County and partially close another in Russell County (in the 38th District) in the wake of new EPA regulations on coal-burning plants. (Sen. Puckett must be feeling the heat as he put a pro-coal industry “petition” on his website, urging signees to “do your part” by providing his office with their contact information.) For his part, Sen. Puckett is attempting to draw contrasts with his opponent by suggesting that he is a man-of-the-people citizen-legislator whereas Adam Light is the candidate of “Richmond special-interests,” supported by large infusions of money from outside the district.

A strong candidate who is out-hustling his opponent has made a race of an election that ordinarily would have been a slam dunk for the incumbent.

Other races to watch

We’ve looked at the races we think will be most competitive through Election Day, but writing this in late September, we certainly don’t have all the answers. By the time you read this, there are several other races that could really heat up and bring surprises:

29th: For the past four years, rumors have surrounded whether long-time incumbent Senator Chuck Colgan was going to retire. The 85-year-old president pro tempore has been serving since 1976. However, Colgan has decided to try for one more term. Instead of getting a free pass, though, Republicans have turned to Navy reservist and small business owner, Tom Gordy, to run in this district that consists of mostly Prince William County. Gordy, who managed Nick Rerras’ upset victory over then Senate Majority Leader Stanley Walker in 1999, has been aggressively campaigning. Despite Colgan’s early money advantage, Gordy could see a late surge of support. Gordy certainly has the ability to make this the “upset” of 2011.

33rd: Patricia Phillips is giving it another go against Senator Mark Herring. The district, several miles outside the beltway and goes from Leesburg to Dulles airport, has been made slightly more Democratic by redistricting. Herring also has a sizable war-chest. But Phillips message could resonate much more strongly with voters after seeing how Democrats, and Herring, have been governing in Richmond.

39th: Constitutional attorney Miller Baker is challenging one-term incumbent George Barker. Barker was named the “biggest enemy” of Virginia businesses by Virginia FREE (a pro-business organization) while supporting the interests of big labor (the AFL-CIO) 100% of the time. Baker’s campaign has focused on job creation, touting Virginia as a right-to-work state and consistent rankings as one of the top business states in the country. According to Baker’s web site, his goal “is to reduce the Virginia personal income tax and corporate income tax as much as possible, in order to make Virginia a magnet for businesses and families fleeing the failed policies of high tax states such as California.” 61 percent of the district is in Fairfax County and the rest is proportioned between Prince William County and the city of Alexandria. Transportation is a key issue in this northern Virginia district and Baker minces no words about it, saying more roads need to be built. He reminds voters a commonsense bill to prioritize transportation spending in Northern Virginia according to the amount of traffic congestion to be relieved by the spending was defeated by the Democratically-controlled Senate.

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