Lots of pundits and analysts are chiming in on whether Herman Cain’s recent rise is a flash in the pan or something sustainable. Cain is nicely positioned that if he can survive January, he will have every opportunity to take over the race.
Looking at Cain’s polling, he’s tracking very similar to Mike Huckabee in 2008. Doing well in Iowa, not so good in New Hampshire, and ok in South Carolina. Huckabee tumbled in Florida, and since Cain’s rise started there, odds are he’ll have a better shot than Huckabee did.
But the big variable no one is talking about is Super Tuesday, which was in the first week of February in 2008. It’s pushed back to March in 2012.
That means anyone left standing on February 1st has plenty of time to retool and gear up for a March Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday all but assured McCain’s victory in 2008, knocking out Romney.
January’s highlights are Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. New Hampshire looks beyond Cain’s grasp. Romney has an incredibly huge lead there.
Cain looks like he could win Iowa, and he’s polling neck-and-neck right now with Romney in South Carolina. A new poll in Florida shows Cain ahead.
If Super Tuesday was in early February, Romney’s money could still run the table against Cain despite some Cain victories in January. But the February primary schedule is sprinked with a few states like Minnesota and Maine until February 28th in Michigan. Super Tuesday is the following week.
That means this primary season is lasting a while. Unless someone sweeps Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, this race is lasting until March. If Cain can win 2 of the big 4 in January, Super Tuesday is a table set for him to sweep to victory. With Romney’s non-engagement strategy in Iowa, Iowa is gift-wrapped for Cain. Romney did great in Florida in 2008. If Cain steals that one, he could have a very easy time in February with a light primary calender and raise enough money to have a big Super Tuesday.
And keep an eye on Newt Gingrich, who is trailing right behind the leaders. If Cain does stumble, I’ll bet Newt’s strategy is to step into the void. If Cain is simply a “flavor of the month,” Newt is next in line.
But everything I’m seeing in polling shows that Cain is a sustainable campaign. If he wins Iowa and either Florida or South Carolina, he’ll be poised to win the whole thing.
