Herman Cain could win
By Brian Kirwin | Friday, October 14th, 2011 |Lots of pundits and analysts are chiming in on whether Herman Cain’s recent rise is a flash in the pan or something sustainable. Cain is nicely positioned that if he can survive January, he will have every opportunity to take over the race.
Looking at Cain’s polling, he’s tracking very similar to Mike Huckabee in 2008. Doing well in Iowa, not so good in New Hampshire, and ok in South Carolina. Huckabee tumbled in Florida, and since Cain’s rise started there, odds are he’ll have a better shot than Huckabee did.
But the big variable no one is talking about is Super Tuesday, which was in the first week of February in 2008. It’s pushed back to March in 2012.
That means anyone left standing on February 1st has plenty of time to retool and gear up for a March Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday all but assured McCain’s victory in 2008, knocking out Romney.
January’s highlights are Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. New Hampshire looks beyond Cain’s grasp. Romney has an incredibly huge lead there.
Cain looks like he could win Iowa, and he’s polling neck-and-neck right now with Romney in South Carolina. A new poll in Florida shows Cain ahead.
If Super Tuesday was in early February, Romney’s money could still run the table against Cain despite some Cain victories in January. But the February primary schedule is sprinked with a few states like Minnesota and Maine until February 28th in Michigan. Super Tuesday is the following week.
That means this primary season is lasting a while. Unless someone sweeps Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, this race is lasting until March. If Cain can win 2 of the big 4 in January, Super Tuesday is a table set for him to sweep to victory. With Romney’s non-engagement strategy in Iowa, Iowa is gift-wrapped for Cain. Romney did great in Florida in 2008. If Cain steals that one, he could have a very easy time in February with a light primary calender and raise enough money to have a big Super Tuesday.
And keep an eye on Newt Gingrich, who is trailing right behind the leaders. If Cain does stumble, I’ll bet Newt’s strategy is to step into the void. If Cain is simply a “flavor of the month,” Newt is next in line.
But everything I’m seeing in polling shows that Cain is a sustainable campaign. If he wins Iowa and either Florida or South Carolina, he’ll be poised to win the whole thing.
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The right wants to jeer him. The left wants to censor him. Moderates usually want both. Brian Kirwin is a political consultant and public relations strategist in Virginia Beach with a lightning-rod flair. Brian also serves on the VB Arts & Humanities Commission and frequently appears on Hampton Roads theatrical stages, if only to prove that all actors aren’t liberals. Kirwin’s columns stir up debate and hit the political scene with no punches pulled.
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53 Responses to "Herman Cain could win"
What’s interesting about this post is that there is no mention of the guy who raised $17 million recently.
The problem I see is that Romney has no one dividing the northern Republican vote or center left southern republican vote while all kinds of people chip away at the conservative vote. If Romney had someone like Pawlenty or Daniels still in the race his chances would not be good. However in the current situation I think someone other than Romney has to win Iowa SC and FL to have a chance at the nomination. The establishment didn’t have a big problem in 2008 between Romney and McCain. They may have more with Perry or Cain so they will keep Romney in the race longer. He could do a Hillary with more success, ie hang in and start winning the big industrial states and CA. Does Cain have the org to sweep the caucus states? Don’t think so. I don’t see Gingrich actually winning any primary. I think he’s won a major cabinet position instead.
I really like Cain but if he is to have a fighting chance he needs money, badly and right now.
http://www.businessinsider.com/herman-cain-only-has-a-few-hundred-thousand-dollars-in-the-bank-2011-10
Here is where you can donate:
https://secure.yourpatriot.com/ou/hpac/donate.aspx?b4945Mwitv4KxGACPNvURqmKw
When Bachman and others in single digits decide to drop from the race, its a safe bet their support will go to Cain moreso than Romney. As long as Romney does not screw up he won’t lose more but he is not winning many new converts or so it appears. Cain is not perfect but he has the command of the language that excites voters and he knows how to throw a punch at his republican opponent and his democratic adversaries. Romney seems soft on hammering his adversaries base. Hit Obamas base, fracture his base, break things valuable to them and let the center see who is fighting for their vote. Cain’s Momma didn’t raise no dummy. Yes, I said something bout Momma.
Rick Perry was a flash in the pan. Herman Cain is the real deal.
Herman is mastering the media by letting them “discover” who is advising his campaign. Their discovery of Reagan Economist Art Laffer supporting the plan has raised some eyebrows in the Establishment. Also, having Grover Norquist come out against Cain’s plan is an endorsement that no amount of money can buy.
Republican race has been so volatile..first Bachmann’s a star, then Perry, now Cain. I don’t know. It’s hard to see Romney putting together the kind of numbers he’ll need, he’s just got so many conflicts with the base. Not sold on Cain as the real thing rather than flavor of the month yet. Maybe McDonnell should get in this thing. He’d have as good a chance of being the last “not Romney” candidate standing as anyone else and that’s who probably wins.
Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan is just another one of those Republican attempts to shift more of the tax burden onto the middle class. I wouldn’t mind paying more in taxes if it went towards something like balancing the budget, however I do not want to pay more in order to give the wealthy a tax cut.
You know what I think? Me thinks Herman Cain is the Anti-Christ. 666 is the mark of the beast, however Satan is a tricky devil. He knows good Christians have his number and are keeping an eagle eye out for it. So what is he doing? He’s flipping the digits upside down to disguise them and he probably has succeeded in convincing any number of otherwise good Christians to sign on with Herman Cain’s 999 plan. Satan, we are on to you and I am sure it will not take long for the radio preachers to get the word out.
He’s not Satan. He’s an avid “Sim City” player, that’s where he stole the 9-9-9 plan from.
Little David you ignorant slut http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k80nW6AOhTs (sic).. Have you read the plan yet? While standing on your head the 666 plan if you must call it that will mean everyone pays taxes, poor, middle class and rich. Being a rich fat bastard I will admit my effective tax rate will drop however I will end up paying far more than most and many other rich fat bastards who pay nothing will no longer be able to dodge paying theirs.
Little David, with comments like yours, no wonder you use a pseudo name.
LD,
The 6-6-6 Plan is by John Moss running for Virginia Beach City Council.
I know you are for the other guy Henry but lay off John Moss. He actually is a good guy that has experience and can do a great job for us. I pick people based on experience, not good ole boy politics, favors and personalities.
I like the other guy too, he’s really nice and has a lot of experience. Just not the kind of experience we need for city council. I’ll work real hard for him when he runs for Sheriff.
999 plan.. get used to hearing about it.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9LFwX7YfKg
Well the 999 tax should deep six the tourism and food industry.
Darrell, can you back that claim up with facts?
Herman Cain can’t win.
Especially can’t win if you don’t campaign in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Nevada. Cain hasn’t been to Iowa since the Straw Poll in August. He’s currently on a book tour in Tennessee.
And have you heard him on foreign policy? It’s a cute story, but it’s a flash in the pan.
Sure. For starters just add up the existing state/local sales taxes and then add in Cain’s nine ninety nine special. Don’t forget the pass through into the prices. Isn’t 20 percent more for a Big Mac a bit excessive?
Especially when you…
Break out last year’s tax return and figure out the increase you would be paying. I did, about 40 percent more. Which nearly wiped out the SS tax that you wouldn’t have to pay, because that plan along with Medicare was converted to a true general funded, yearly battle, welfare entitlement.
Aren’t today’s co-opted tea party types going psycho over ‘entitlements’?
9% Business Flat Tax
Gross income less all purchases from other U.S. located businesses, all capital investment, and net exports.
Ever hear of globalism? Failed foreign banks and companies have US branches. WTO rules say they are just as American as apple pie. And those taxes on imports? Well China did say they wanted a trade war. Buy ‘merican, even if it’s only a Fiat.
9% Individual Flat Tax.
Gross income less charitable deductions.
Got a kid in college? Tough! Unexpected medical bills? Too Bad, so sad. This ain’t no rose garden. Quit whining and get back to work you hippie.
Wall Street crooks, or card shuffling political cons. Main street is still the mark.
What will keep Cain from winning is MONEY. He just doesn’t have it. Yet.
Kathy Mateer,
Well my pseudonym isn’t much of one. Little David Transport is the name of my trucking company. Anyone really wanting to find out who I am only has to visit the FMCSA Safer website and you can get my real name, phone number, address of the attorneys designated to receive correspondence in each of the numerous states within which I do business and practically anything you might want to know about me other then which size underwear I have on when I bother to wear underwear. Believe it or not, the federal government has not yet mandated that truck drivers must wear underwear.
I am not ashamed or embarrassed by my 666 comment. Evidently you are limited in your life experiences if you think it was foolish or something. If you still do not understand the point I was attempting to make, I will take you by the hand and explain it to you. I bet quite a few understood it without explanation and those people are the ones I was speaking to anyway.
Turbo,
Herman Cain’s plan is just another attempt to destroy the American Way. The American Way is a progressive tax code not a flat tax. I have had Herman’s plan explained to me from a number of sources including AFR (American Family Radio). They claimed Herman Cain’s plan was short on details and thus far provided Zero protections for the poor from seeing their cost of living expenses rise due to the increases they would see at the cash register. It says a lot when even AFR is critical since they try to so hard to not criticize any Republican.
Please Little David, for you sake and ours, please do not drink/toke and drive. Thank you.
Kathy,
Ah, insults. How about this one? Kathy, please do not try to think about life at the same time you attempt to wipe your butt. Your mind is only capable of one thing at a time as your posts prove. Concentrate, you can get that butt wiped and if you really concentrate understand the wisdom of Republican talking points.
You win, I can’t get as ugly as you.
LD, that is unacceptable disgusting and Kathy deserves better. Shame on you. I challenge you to man up and apologize.
I got offended from his disrespectful and condescending tone and attitude. I thought maybe he was on something and that’s why he acted like that and said so.
Little David, you make a living in an honorable way and it was wrong for me to say in a public forum you may drink/toke and drive. That was petty of me and I ask your forgiveness.
I refuse to apologize for making a valid point. I do apologize that the only way to make the point was only by engaging in man speak. I was not the first to insult. She started it (Little David said as he revisited childhood).
Kathy,
Please note my last post was at the same time as yours. You need my forgiveness no more then I need yours. Hopefully we both have Jesus and he has enough forgiving for both of us. Jesus taught you do not have to be perfect, you only have to try. I love Jesus.
I’m glad you love Jesus and because of Him you know we all need forgiveness. He is the Lamb that was slain to take away the sins of the world isn’t He? When I know I need forgiveness I ask for it. It doesn’t belittle me or make me weak.
Ahh all better now.. Praise the lord and vote for Herman Cain 2012
LOL, I will.
D. J. is right though. He needs serious help in the foreign policy department and he needs money to afford to get to all the places he needs to go to. I hope he gets all he needs because if he doesn’t, I’ll have to vote by default for someone else. I hope he reads Bearing Drift.
Nope, Herman Cain might be the Anti-Christ and even if he is not, he’s trying to destroy the American Way. Of course all the Republican candidates are trying to do that in one way or another.
Did you hear how Ron Paul won the Values Voters straw poll? Come on, this is the guy who wants to legalize prostitution and legalize recreational drug use. You know, God is merciful, but the Bible does say he cast Satan into Hell so there must be limits to the mercy.
When I read the Gospels, they teach me God is merciful, but God ain’t a fool.
The leftists are really losing it. So what do they do? Doesn’t matter whether its NYC parks or websites. They trash them in the hope that no one can use them. This is the nihilism that Marxism leads to. Post-Soviet Pravda warned us of this. They were and are in a position to know.
Returning to the post thread, the one big advantage of Cain is that if he wins he would be less likely to lose in 2016 than Romney or Perry.
Valentinus, in my conservative circles, many women have said that while they enjoy what I post on Bearing Drift, they would never participate themselves because of the very thing that happened in this thread. It’s a shame really because I think much could be gained by hearing from other women instead of the few that press on anyway.
I surmise from his own words that Cains philosophy is peace through strength and clarity. In business, it does not matter what field you emerged from whether it is making widgets for autos, airplanes or toy factories, business leadership philosophy matter most and anyone from any industry with a sharp mind can learn fast and successfully lead that industry to prosper. Purists disagree but this fact is time proven. In many cases a sound business leader from outside of the industry they cut their teeth on has an advantage in that they are not poisoned by prevailing group think. The same is true in government me thinks. As hard on Scott Rigell as I am for making an inexcusable wrong vote on the debt hike issue, I also recognize the value of the fresh perspective of a principled business leader he brings to government and we need more of that.. sans the debt hike vote fiasco.
Cain is sharp. He brings clarity to the debate among his monied challengers. Cain call out the GOP opponent for his failures among them being Obamas failure to make it clear who we stand with or against. Cain’s conservative business philosophy will translate into government clarification of who our friends and enemies are and the result will be that we stop sending money to enemies among other counterproductive actions we have seen presidents partake in the past.
The issue for Cain is not philosphy or judgement, it is money. In a few days Trump will share the line with Bachmann and that could turn some speculation into action. It could also move the deck chairs. Either way, this could impact Cains shot at the nomination and may be worth paying attention to.. We will see.
I presume you all know how to get wired in for the townhall..
My concern with 9-9-9 isn’t tactical, as Cain suggests is the main point of Republican contention with it. It may very well pass easily. In fact it may be passed with wide bi-partisan support, which leads to its strategic problems. Giving progressives and rino’s another revenue stream in the sales tax would be absolutely the wrong thing to do. As soon as its passed and the people forget and let Congress slip back into Democratic hands, every special interest and bureaucrat in the land would be eyeing increases in every rate. A quarter point here for the children (will anyone think of the kids?), a half a point there to keep grandma from eating dog food in her golden years…. Etc, etc
I commend Cain for thinking of new ways to generate revenue, but this plan does not fit into the conservative grand strategy for removing power from Washington and returning it to the people and the states. There should be no federal sales tax unless the Income Tax is abolished from the Constitution.
I thought the 9-9-9 Plan would abolish and replace the current tax system. http://freedomslighthouse.net/2011/09/25/herman-cain-web-ad-explains-his-999-plan-that-would-abolish-the-current-u-s-tax-system-video/
Little David,
Why do you consider a progressive tax system “The American Way”?
When I think of the American Way, I see the land of opportunity where anyone can work hard and make something of themselves. I don’t think the American Way is to take ever more of what I make because I work harder and am sucessful.
A progressive income tax punishes productivity. What is wrong with treating everyone the same (Fair & equal)when it comes to taxes?
Thanks,
Pam
Rasmussen: Cain 43% / Obama 41% http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups
Kathy Mateer,
I am addressing this specifically to you because you seem to think you were somehow mistreated on this thread and I can think you were talking about how I must have been the one doing it because I do not see where it could have been aimed at anyone else. I do, however, think some others might benefit from hearing this.
Yesterday, while rolling through Oklahoma, on a Christian radio station I heard something I found very interesting. They were reporting on Herman’s 999 plan and provided a quote of Michelle Bachman from the recent Republican Presidential candidate debate. Here’s the quote: “When you take the 999 plan and you turn it upside won, the devil is in the details”.
Now, I had not heard this before I posted my 1st comment on this thread, but hearing it yesterday gave me a big chuckle. I am fairly confident that Michelle was not trying to make all the points I was, but I bet some of her points did match mine. I will compliment Michelle on her ability to the point(s) in far fewer words, but her perceived targeted audience probably was a little different then mine. My target was larger, so I felt some explaining was required.
I will remind you of what your response was to my 1st post, it was: “Little David, with comments like yours, no wonder you use a pseudo name.” Now, if instead of attempting to make my points in my own words, had I only provided the quote of Michelle’s, would you still have been motivated to imply I had posted something that I should be ashamed of or embarrassed about? If not, why not?
Pam,
I am going to say that it only my opinion, and nothing else, that a progressive tax system is part of the American Way. I guess that is not an unreasonable assertion, but I feel then that my opinion is supported at least by our nation’s history of federal tax policies going back almost the last 100 years, or since the 16th Amendment was ratified in 1913. It really wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to claim it goes all the way back to the time of Abraham Lincoln.
Now I will get more into what might be described as opinion to which I can not rely on as much concrete history to point to. I believe that our progressive tax system is a key part of the explanation for our nation’s success in preventing the rise of communist/Marxist influences and winning the Cold War. My entire explanation would be more then I care to go into, but briefly the core of it is that our leaders where able to educate our citizens (beginning in elementary school) that we didn’t need Marxism because the American Way was better. Part of the American Way as it existed at the time, and to this present day, is a progressive tax system where the wealthy pay a higher rate of taxes helping to provide for the poor and less fortunate. There is more to my reasoning, but I am trying to be brief and avoid writing a book here.
I do have to add that it is my opinion that the Estate (Death) tax is the most beautiful tax our society has.
I am about ready to throw this laptop out the window. The touch pad on it is so sensitive that if the ball of my hand brushes across it while typing, it will highlight sometimes entire paragraphs that end up being replaced by the next key stroke without my having sometimes noticed.
The first sentence in my last post should have read: “I am going to say that quite a few people say it is only my opinion, and nothing else…”
Little David, Estate taxes drive an incredibly high number of family businesses out of business.. what is beutiful about that?
If it was a family business, then junior should have taken over long before an estate tax cashed in.
Please LD
Do throw the laptop out of the window. For the children’s sake.
People need to be real careful! Mr. Cain is pushing all of the right conservative buttons especially regarding the economy. But that doesn’t mean he is any more qualified to be President of the United States any more than Obama. We don’t need a conservative version of Obama. You need to ask yourself if you are supporting him because you really feel he can do the job or because he is black and telling conservatives and independents what they want to hear. I, for one, am sick and tired of black leaders, political or otherwise, who are black first and American second.
Turbo,
Under current law, up to $5 million can be passed on without paying any federal estate taxes.
I feel like Cain is the best option. Not perfect but he’s not a northeastern RINO running from RomneyCare and he’s not that idiot from Texas that thinks a student from old Mexico should get in-state tuition while a student from New Mexico should pay a higher out-of-state rate.
Cain has no political baggage.
I’m not going to say Cain can win… yet. However the thing that amazes me is he’s winning on message alone. Everyone else is spending out the wazoo to build organization, but his folks just show up. This is something totally new. The media attention he’s getting is only helping him too. It will be interesting if he does crack out a victory in Iowa or SC. It could show a real change in how a campaign is done, not that people havent said that about previous candidates but this is defintely shaping up to be different.
As far as foreign policy goes NOBODY is voting Foreign Policy in this election. If that was the case Huntsman and Newt would be leading. His comments about the “‘stans” will only draw people to him who are thinking “Jobs, Jobs, Jobs”.
WOW.. The planets must be in alignment or something when Lee Talley and I agree.
The punting from the media is no surprise. They want Romney to challenge Obama after all. Speaking of media attention, on the CNN interview with Piers Morgan, Cain was asked specific questions about abortion policy and the role of the President. Piers asked Cain if he as potus would use the office of the president to keep women from seeking an abortion. Cain stated “the president has no constitutional authority to order any such action by anyone.” Cains answer clearly focused on the constitutionally limited role of the Potus without relating that this should be a states rights issue yet the media has predictable spun this web of BS as pro choice in a vain attempt to poison the one candidate that, in my opinion, has the least amount of money to pay for future advertising and needs less due to his popular positions.
Cain stated, “As President, I will appoint judges who understand the original intent of the Constitution. Judges who are committed to the rule of law know that the Constitution contains no right to take the life of unborn children. I will oppose government funding of abortion. I will veto any legislation that contains funds for Planned Parenthood. I will do everything that a President can do, consistent with his constitutional role, to advance the culture of life.”
Do you interpret these statements as Pro Choice or Pro Life?
Herman Cain will fail if he doesnt realize that he needs to act the role of a commander and chief rather than a circus clown. from his comments on recent interviews about prolife stance where he flip flopped when being asked about what he beleived with regards to abortion for a woman who was raped to the most recent commercial from his camp where he basically mocked the process and made himself look a fool. If hes the number one candidate for the repulican party we are going to hit the ground hard. I think Mitt romney is the most presentable of the bunch although he has made some seriouse miscalculations as well.
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