In which Good Copy gets tingly

Jeff “Good Copy” Schapiro believes that Bob McDonnell is feeling “tingly.”

It’s not because McDonnell watched Notre Dame crush the hapless Purdue Boilermakers last night. Or even because there’s finally a fall chill in the air. No, Jeff believes the Governor’s getting the tingles because the would-be veep is getting some national attention that might, possibly, be turning McDonnell’s head, while turning his attention away from the humdrum Virginia political scene.

But all those tingles and blushes may come to naught, Jeff believes, as a handful of restless GOP bigwigs and a passel of extraordinarily bored pressies push New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to declare for the presidency:

…Christie is again first — first in the eyes of Republicans underwhelmed by their presidential candidates. Christie is everything McDonnell isn’t: brash, confrontational, smash-mouth with D’s and R’s.

Solid, stolid Bob just can’t compete with Christie’s bombast. It makes for great headlines (and YouTube videos). It’s living politics in the moment and right now, the moment seems ripe for a politician who isn’t afraid to mix it up with reporters, union bosses and the other slippery life forms infesting state capitals.

Or at least that’s current conventional wisdom. I suspect, though, that if Mr. Christie did the unthinkable, and actually entered the presidential sweepstakes, two things would happen:

* Richard Simmons would suddenly become a fixture on the cable shows talking about Gov. Christie’s waistline

* Christie’s record outside the YouTube snippets would get much wider play than it has so far — which is problematic for the New Jersey Governor.

Nate Silver put it this way:

The point is not necessarily that Mr. Christie is a centrist, but that he is a pragmatic Republican whose record and rhetoric reflect his job of having to win election, and govern, in a relatively blue state. Moreover, he has generally avoided speaking of the issues of the day in harshly partisan terms, or endorsing candidates strongly associated with the Tea Party.

Over all, his record probably reads as being closer to that of Mr. Romney than Mr. Perry. And Mr. Christie could threaten Mr. Romney in another way: by performing strongly in the Northeast, possibly including New Hampshire, a part of the country where Mr. Romney would otherwise hope to rack up momentum and delegates.

Silver shows that on issues like gun control, immigration, climate change and others, Christie is, or appears to be, out of step with the kinds of voters who show up at Republican primaries. Contrast Gov. McDonnell with Gov. Christie, and we see that the milder, more mannered Bob checks off more primary voter boxes than Christie — while, like Christie, “generally avoid[ing] speaking of the issues of the day in harshly partisan terms.”

If anything, it makes the argument for McDonnell as the outsider rushing to rescue the bored and skittish GOP from its presidential field. McDonnell has far more political experience than the New Jersey Governor, or for that matter, Mitt Romney. He’s smooth, largely unflappable and good humored. And, for the girthers in the press corps, he’s still Army-thin.

But McDonnell suffers from a great handicap: he’s a Virginia governor. Jeff sees it as a long standing plus. But it’s not really. Sandwiched between the massive media markets of New York and Philadelphia, Christie is a far better known quantity to the squawking heads. He’s convenient, close, and makes for much better TV than the drab Andrew Cuomo.

McDonnell is tucked into that great unmarked space on the political map whose only legend is “here there be dragons.” Virginia’s legislature isn’t riddled with scandals and (overt) machine politics, so the fireworks and opportunities for such aren’t nearly as frequent as they are in other states. There are real characters, to be sure. And even a few marquee names have bubbled up over the years. Otherwise, though, Virginia politics barely rates small beer status.

And whenever McDonnell is on TV via satellite from that rumored, if sleepy, city on the James, there’s a signal delay akin to the one that plagues reports from the battlefields of Libya. Or the Space Shuttle. Can the leader of such a strange, distant, vaguely civilized place really have what it takes to stare down Vladimir Putin or attend the funeral of the Queen of Fredonia?

Of course he does. But in a political culture that flits from shiny object to new shiny object, McDonnell just doesn’t have enough flash to get noticed for the top spot. So he makes himself available for the lower half of the ticket — the solid foundation upon which a successful campaign can be build.

As much as that may seem a loss for our political culture — we really could use a steady, experienced presence on the campaign trail — it will be a gain for whichever Republican survives the presidential primaries (except for Ron Paul, who will likely pick Murray Rothbard’s ghost as his running mate).

Then we will be able to enjoy the press bylines Jeff imagines — Bumpass, Tightsqueeze, and the one he omits: Cuckoo.

Now that possibility ought to get everyone a bit tingly.

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