Polls: President Obama Needs a Plan B
By Jason Johnson | Monday, September 26th, 2011 | PoliticsFor political junkies, a couple of fascinating polls are out today:
First, from Roanoke College’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, a poll of 601 likely voters conducted earlier this month shows that Virginians overwhelmingly disapprove of President Obama’s performance in office. Only 39 percent of Virginians approve, 54 percent disapprove. This is not idle disapproval, either: both Govs. Mitt Romney and Rick Perry best President Obama in the poll–albeit it Gov. Perry is within the margin-of-error. President Obama leads Reps. Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul and Gov. Sarah Palin by margins ranging from 10 percentage points (Ron Paul) to 19 percentage points (Sarah Palin).
If, as we are repeatedly told, winning Virginia is central to the president’s reelection strategy, he had better ask David Axelrod to prepare a Plan B because when 81 percent of Virginians think the nation is on the wrong track and only 39 percent approve of the job you’re doing all the while, the nation is suffering from both a stagnant national economy and chronically high unemployment, it’s looking less likely that Barack Obama will be able to pull off a repeat of his historic 2008 victory in the Commonwealth.
Another interesting note in the Roanoke College poll involves our closely watched U.S. Senate race: George Allen leads Tim Kaine 42-39. Since this lead is within the margin-of-error and 19 percent of those polled remain undecided, this race is still anyone’s to win, but it suggests–especially former Gov. and Sen. Allen’s nine-point lead with independents–that momentum is on the GOP’s side. As a fellow Bearing Drift contributor noted, this is a critical difference from 2008 when Barack Obama shared the ballot with the popular former governor Mark Warner. Could the absence of Warner on the ballot seal President Obama’s fate in the Commonwealth in 2012?
There is other good news for Virginia Republicans in the Roanoke College poll: Gov. McDonnell enjoys a 67 percent approval rating and, while Virginians overwhelmingly believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction, we are more optimistic about the direction our Commonwealth is taking under Gov. McDonnell’s leadership, as 49 percent of respondents say Virginia is heading in the right direction. (And you wonder why some are speculating that Gov. McDonnell would make a stellar running mate for the eventual Republican presidential nominee?)
Compare the relative satisfaction Virginians feel for Gov. McDonnell and the direction of the Commonwealth to the utter contempt most Americans hold for the federal government from today’s Gallup poll:
A record-high 81% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way the country is being governed, adding to negativity that has been building over the past 10 years.
Just to put that number in historical perspective, Americans were more satisfied with the governance of the nation during Watergate than we are today! Only 15 percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing (these numbers vary slightly depending on political orientation of respondents). Compounding the problem for Congress, majorities believe they cannot trust members Congress, Congress wastes almost 51 cents of every dollar and–perhaps most heartening for conservatives–a near-majority believes “the federal government has become so large and powerful that it poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens.”
Even in this toxic political environment, Virginians still appear favorably disposed to our majority-Republican congressional delegation, approving of their own member of Congress 41 – 36 percent.
If these polls contain any good news for Democrats, it is that Virginians believe the deficit can be closed without touching entitlement programs and that tax increases should be part of the solution. Just to douse Democrats’ enthusiasm, however, Virginians also overwhelmingly share the Republican position that all Americans need to pay some taxes.
Comparing the findings of these two polls suggests what many of us have suspected: 2011 and 2012 could be good years for Virginia Republicans as we seek to keep Virginia moving forward and to help America wrest the helm of the ship of state from the Obama-Reid Democrats in Washington, D.C. and put our nation back on a fiscally sustainable course.
Tags:
Contribute for Conservatism!
Share this post
About the author
A lifelong political junkie, Jason caught the political bug as a fifth grader after meeting George Allen in 1993. Since then he has studied political science at both the undergraduate and graduate level. When not perusing the blogs or volunteering for conservative Republicans, Jason enjoys cheering on his beloved Virginia Tech Hokies and spending time at his Bedford County home.
Comments
23 Responses to "Polls: President Obama Needs a Plan B"
I didn’t need a poll to tell me this.Obama will not win Virginia in 2012.Alot of people that supported him last time are not happy at all.The Republicans are fired up.This all adds up to a bad year for Obama in 2012.
Perhaps it is a bit surprising that you would suggest the President’s advisors to prepare a Plan B, but not say the same to Congress which has much worse ratings than the President. Fact is, the american people have grown weary of the partisanship which prevents any effective action to return the nation to prosperity, and most of that angst is directed toward Congress, not the President. Certainly the upcoming next chapter in the perpetual crisis of shutting down the government again over emergency relief is just one other indication of the dysfunction in Congress. Of course, republicans are betting that this hurts the President more than them, but of course, that is an unknown conclusion in this dynamic electoral season when it appears yet another republican star is on his way back to earth.
Obama does not need VA or NC or IN. He has a Plan B. Its called the Harry Reid Bop. Harry Reid had 14% unemployment, major responsibility for the Dem’s policies and a President who trashed Vegas. Last time I checked he won. Yes the Repub candidate Angle was ineffective but is it really certain that Lowden or Tarkanian would have stood up under the Harry Reid Bop? Look at the losing Repub Senate candidates in CT CA and WA. They weren’t nutty or even Tea Party newbies.
Obama is hoping to stitch together Midwest union states and the usual leftist blue states. Obama can lose Ohio and Florida and still win narrowly by keeping a few small states. Can he do it? Well its not likely but under certain circumstances he might. There will be billions of dollars of radioactive agitprop and billions more of in kind help from the media. There will be October surprises. I emphasize the plural. One on Oct 1 the next on Oct 2 etc. One half of hope and change is hope and that’s where he’s at.
If there was a “Plan B”, no one would believe it.
Mike: I guess you missed the paragraph where I discussed the opinions Virginians hold of our individual members of Congress (Cliffs Notes version: they have higher approval ratings than President Obama). While you’re right, Virginians don’t like the partisan gridlock in Washington (who does?), Virginians also appear to embrace the our (Republicans) congressmen and their fiscally conservative agenda. Thanks for your concern, though, but it looks like President Obama is in greater electoral peril in the Commonwealth right now.
“Only 15 percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing”
Correct, and this is worthy of mentioning: it’s been estimated that during the Revolutionary War, somewhere between 15% and 20% of Americans still supported King George.
I’d really like to hear a lot more about the “fiscally sustainable course” of which you speak and attribute to alleged Republicans. I’ve seen nothing of it so far. For years, the R’s chided the D’s about not passing a budget. Now the R’s control the House, and still no budget. Even if the Senate remains reticent, the R’s could demonstrate “leadership” (whatever passes for that in politics these days) and actually bring a budget proposal to the floor and debate it. They could start a national dialogue on what Americans really want government to pay for, and what they’re willing to give to government in order to get it. The MSM would have no choice but to cover it. Genuine issues could be discussed. Imagine!
Please, please say “Paul Ryan.” Please.
What was Allens approval rate when he was running for reelection in 05-06?
All interesting mental masturbation at this point. The Repubs–as far as a Presidential candidates goes–don’t even have a Plan A, much less a plan B. I’d hate to be in Christie’s shoes about now. The pressure must be enormous. I really hope he’ll get in, but I certainly couldn’t blame him if he didn’t. Frankly, I love to see him run and tell some of the loudmouths on the fringe of the GOP it’s time to put up or shut up.
No Jason, I simply ignored your statement because it was not broken done by district. Rigell is vulnerable because he has supported the Cantor/Boehner line which supports the wealthy at the expense of the middle class, and last time I checked, this district is heavily populated by middle and working class voters that got clobbered by the Bush tax cuts which disproportionately favored the rich and wealthy who then bought finer wine and took longer vacations.
Mike isn’t that the same tax cuts that Obama just extended ?
Yes Jason, regretfully so, but of course the President, dealing with politial realities, at least had his priorities straight. In order to get extended unemployment benefits for the unemployed, a tax incentive for businesses by a reduction in the payroll tax, he had to agree to continuation of the Bush tax cuts which benefit predominately the rich and wealthy. Of course, the Congress must now deal with this issue all over again, and it is my hope that they aggressively pursue the reduction of tax credits, loopholes, unnecessary subsidies, as well as reductions in expenditures after 2013 so we can get growing again.
So Let me see if im hearing you right.Bush just gave the tax cuts to help the wealthy but Obama just did it because he didn’t have any choice ? So by your way of thinking Bush must have just decided he wanted to go to war for no reason but Obama didn’t have any choice ? You wouldn’t be a little one sided would you ?
Actually Red Baron, I think Bush really believed in vodoo economics and also he wanted to show his appreciation to his base; that is, the wealthy top 1% of income in the nation. President Obama wanted to help the hollowed out middle and working classes, but the only way to get that passed was to agree to extension of the Bush tax cuts. As to why Bush responded to the attacks of 9/11 by then attacking Iraq and involving us in another ground war in Asia remains an absolute mystery to me.
Well Mike maybe you can explain why we have spent over a billion dollars in Libya under Obama ? Since you seem to approve of ALL of his actions.Seems to me the Dems were outraged that we were still at war in two countries but Libya doesn’t seem to bother them in the least.Why is that Mike ?
Well Red Baron, I think your criticism of the President’s actions in regard to Libya, compared to Bush’s actions in Iraq, reveals your failure to perceive a successful intervention from one that failed miserably. The President’s intervention in Libya was humanitarian, limited, in concert with the international community, and totally coordinated with other elements of our national security. Bush’s ill fated intervention was based on lies and deceit, never was actually justified, never was clearly defined, and some would argue, altered the balance of power in the middle east in favor of Iran. In other words, against our own national security interest. So President Obama acted with compassion, clear direction, the limited use of U.S. power, and with the backing of the international community. In other words, a model for future actions.
Mike,
It is far too early yet for anyone to be claiming success in Libya, although your moving description of it almost brought a tear to my eye. If the Islamics take control and turn it into another Iran, something that is a distinct possibility, I doubt if anyone will call it “a model for future actions.”
And, BTW, where is Obama on compassionately helping the oppressed citizens of Syria where a brutal regime is gunning down protesters with tank fire and hit squads are beating the elderly parents and decapitating the teenage sisters of insurgent leaders that they can’t find? Oh, that’s right. Syria doesn’t have the oil reserves that Libya has.
So after years of saying the USA didn’t need to be the police for the world the Dems have CHANGED their mind ? Wow its amazing how things have CHANGED.
But, how about this for a Plan B: “If nominated, I will not run. If elected, I will not serve.”
Well Red Baron, you asked for my assessment so I gave it to you. Feel free to disregard, but know I speak for me and no one else. I don’t know what you mean about changing ones mind. I never supported the intervention in Iraq and frankly do not understand the Bush/Cheney debacle to this day.
In regard to Syria, this is a much more complicated scenario without the clear cut humanitiarian goal of stopping the murder of civilians. It appears that the international community is using other means of persuasion and I do not think a military intervention is necessary nor desirable. So HisRoc, are you saying you support a military intervention in Syria?
MB says “I do not think a military intervention (of Syria)is necessary nor desirable.”
Mike let’s be honest. Replace your “I” with Obama. When Obama changes his mind so will you. That’s because you are an intelligent leftist who thinks for yourself of course.
Mike,
You brought up Libya, not me. I just asked the question, “if Libya was ‘a model for future actions,’ then why not Syria?” Just because Obama’s European pals don’t want to do it? Oh, excuse me, they are “using other means of persuasion.” Tell that to the family of Zainab al-Hosni.
Is that America’s role in the global community now, Europe is the brains and we are the muscle?
Mike you might want to check in with David Axelrod before you make any more comments.David Axelrod said today Obama faces a titanic struggle to win reelection.Now Mike tell me again Obama isn’t in deep dodo lol
Well of course the President faces a difficult struggle to get re-elected in these difficult times. But to his advantage, no challenger has emerged that seems to have a clue about what to do. The President has a plan, he is promoting it, and when it is defeated in the House, they will need to answer to the american people as well. So far, their intrasigence is supposed to pass as a plan, but given their ratings, that is not acceptable to the voters. Congress as led by Boehner and Cantor is so inept that many of them must fear for their future as Congressman. Of course, Scott Rigell can always come back and sell cars.
Leave your response
The comments section is for meaningful discussion. Readers are reminded to post comments that are germane to the article and write in a common language that steers clear of personal attacks and/or vulgarities.
Please take a moment to review our comment policy.