For political junkies, a couple of fascinating polls are out today:
First, from Roanoke College’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, a poll of 601 likely voters conducted earlier this month shows that Virginians overwhelmingly disapprove of President Obama’s performance in office. Only 39 percent of Virginians approve, 54 percent disapprove. This is not idle disapproval, either: both Govs. Mitt Romney and Rick Perry best President Obama in the poll–albeit it Gov. Perry is within the margin-of-error. President Obama leads Reps. Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul and Gov. Sarah Palin by margins ranging from 10 percentage points (Ron Paul) to 19 percentage points (Sarah Palin).
If, as we are repeatedly told, winning Virginia is central to the president’s reelection strategy, he had better ask David Axelrod to prepare a Plan B because when 81 percent of Virginians think the nation is on the wrong track and only 39 percent approve of the job you’re doing all the while, the nation is suffering from both a stagnant national economy and chronically high unemployment, it’s looking less likely that Barack Obama will be able to pull off a repeat of his historic 2008 victory in the Commonwealth.
Another interesting note in the Roanoke College poll involves our closely watched U.S. Senate race: George Allen leads Tim Kaine 42-39. Since this lead is within the margin-of-error and 19 percent of those polled remain undecided, this race is still anyone’s to win, but it suggests–especially former Gov. and Sen. Allen’s nine-point lead with independents–that momentum is on the GOP’s side. As a fellow Bearing Drift contributor noted, this is a critical difference from 2008 when Barack Obama shared the ballot with the popular former governor Mark Warner. Could the absence of Warner on the ballot seal President Obama’s fate in the Commonwealth in 2012?
There is other good news for Virginia Republicans in the Roanoke College poll: Gov. McDonnell enjoys a 67 percent approval rating and, while Virginians overwhelmingly believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction, we are more optimistic about the direction our Commonwealth is taking under Gov. McDonnell’s leadership, as 49 percent of respondents say Virginia is heading in the right direction. (And you wonder why some are speculating that Gov. McDonnell would make a stellar running mate for the eventual Republican presidential nominee?)
Compare the relative satisfaction Virginians feel for Gov. McDonnell and the direction of the Commonwealth to the utter contempt most Americans hold for the federal government from today’s Gallup poll:
A record-high 81% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way the country is being governed, adding to negativity that has been building over the past 10 years.
Just to put that number in historical perspective, Americans were more satisfied with the governance of the nation during Watergate than we are today! Only 15 percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing (these numbers vary slightly depending on political orientation of respondents). Compounding the problem for Congress, majorities believe they cannot trust members Congress, Congress wastes almost 51 cents of every dollar and–perhaps most heartening for conservatives–a near-majority believes “the federal government has become so large and powerful that it poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens.”
Even in this toxic political environment, Virginians still appear favorably disposed to our majority-Republican congressional delegation, approving of their own member of Congress 41 – 36 percent.
If these polls contain any good news for Democrats, it is that Virginians believe the deficit can be closed without touching entitlement programs and that tax increases should be part of the solution. Just to douse Democrats’ enthusiasm, however, Virginians also overwhelmingly share the Republican position that all Americans need to pay some taxes.
Comparing the findings of these two polls suggests what many of us have suspected: 2011 and 2012 could be good years for Virginia Republicans as we seek to keep Virginia moving forward and to help America wrest the helm of the ship of state from the Obama-Reid Democrats in Washington, D.C. and put our nation back on a fiscally sustainable course.
