Jamie Radtke and Venn Diagrams
By Shaun Kenney | Tuesday, September 20th, 2011 | PoliticsJust to make it clear, Jamie Radtke is really unhappy that her campaign can’t raise 1/5th of what George Allen can raise, much less garner 15% of the GOP electorate to back her campaign.
So she wrote an e-mail about it. As a public service to Bearing Drift readers, I’m going to sketch out this thought process so that you too may understand why Radtke is so apoplectic.
From the e-mail:
The AP and VCCA ignore head-to-head Senate polls, such as the July 27 PPP poll showing:
Tim Kaine: 47%
Jamie Radtke: 31%This is well over the 15% threshold set by the AP and VCCA. This is a general election debate, so why wouldn’t they use general election poll numbers?
Okay… got that. Let me sketch that one out real quick:
There we go — now the other part of the argument…
The AP and VCCA ignore the fact that, by scheduling a general election debate six months before the primary, the Mainstream Media is circumventing the electoral process and telling Virginians that your voices and votes are irrelevant.
By their logic, an AP / VCCA presidential debate in Virginia would include only Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. The AP and VCCA would exclude Ron Paul (9.8%), Michele Bachmann (6.8%), Newt Gingrich (6.2%), Herman Cain (5.4%), Rick Santorum (1.8%) and Jon Huntsman (1.4%).
All right — so let’s sketch out that part of the Venn diagram…
Now Radtke lowers the damn BOOM on these MSM clowns!
The AP and VCCA is using its Mainstream Media power to shut down conservative Virginians, saying: We will pick your Senate candidates.
I mean – BAM SUCKAS!!!! Take that Sorenson Institute! Take that Mr. Associated Press!!!
Ignore the fact that Radtke can’t muster more than single digits versus Allen. Or the fact that 30% of the GOP faithful — I dunno, wild guess here — like both Allen and Radtke. No no no… this is just a direct, establishment motivated attack on Baby Jesus, mom, and American values like toilet paper, Super Sized Fries, and 7-11′s everywhere.
The logic is just… shocking, I know.
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Shaun Kenney is the Chairman of the Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors, former Communications Director for the Republican Party of Virginia, and an active blogger since 2002. Shaun lives in Thomas Jefferson's backyard with his wife, six children, and a modest attempt at a farm in Kents Store, Virginia.
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55 Responses to "Jamie Radtke and Venn Diagrams"
Someone on Jamie’s campaign staff needs to get rattled hard on this one. Stupid, stupid press release to issue…
Logic and the Rat-ke campaign are mutually exclusive.
Can she get any worse? She’s making Michele Bachman look sane.
However, it’s not the proper role of the press to decide “hey we’re bored with all this primary stuff already, let’s just move on to the general election.”
Sometimes, people who would get my vote, can’t put one foot in front of another enough. What would she do if she got in the senate if she can’t run against Allen effectively? I just don’t think there has been enough attempt by her campaign in the undercurrent media to overcome the lack of coverage by the media as a whole. It would’ve gotten to me, a conservative active blogger and commenter for sure and I’ve not seen a single thing.
There seems to be a presumption here that she has a campaign staff. Are we sure about that?
I can’t believe Bearing Drift commenters, so usually quick to jump on the media as “arrogant” and “biased” are going to let this demonstration of arrogant media bias sail on by without rebuke.
And the Countdown begins for Kaine to insist she be included.
So you’d want Chairman Kaine to debate his single-digit challengers as well?
Why bother with the primary? With trusted media friends, voters can stay at home and let the two parties that worked hand in hand to destroy our economy narrow the field of decisions for them.
Will AP invite a 3rd party candidate or is this only for monied interests? The media need ad revenue so I can understand the money angle of excluding citizen representatives. I can also understand why the dems would want this sooner than later debate.. If Obama is on the outs, Kaine needs to step out early and build minority support to show up at the polls..
We need more media influence to turn this country around.. isn’t that right rinos?
If he wants to. I don’t think Allen has to debate Radke. But I don’t think it’s appropriate for the press to just decide, in advance of any votes being counted, that the candidate selection process is over and we’ll just move on to the general election. What’s wrong with waiting until the prmaries are over before scheduling a general election debate? That system has seemed to work okay up until this year.
His paranoid conspiracy rantings aside, “Turbo” is right that this is inappropriate. The media is not allowed to assume who the candidates will be before the voters have spoken.
The more I think about this the more it is looking like a blessing.. Hmm.. lets see.. Kaine backed by the full faith and finances of the dnc will debate Allen before the gop primary.. Who needs macaca?!! This is manna from heaven! A gift to Allens opponents. Geez, I wonder if conservatives will step forward again like some did in 06 and provide aid and comfort to the Webb campaign simply to fire Allen.
This is the kind of cronyism that launched the tea party movement.
What is this mythical power of the MSM? It’s the APs party — they set the bar rather low (in fact, at lower than the bar for participation in the POTUS debates — 15% of your party, not 15% of the electorate) and at a fundraising total that is only 1/5th of your primary opposition.
That’s not the AP choosing candidates. That’s the AP telling candidates not to waste the public’s time with sideshows.
If a candidate is serious about contesting the election, then they can put together the campaign and resources needed to make themselves a credible, viable alternative. Do it not? Then don’t come whining to the AP for what is tantamount to a public relations handout.
So Shaun, correct me if I am mistaken. You are stating that is is AP’s prerogative to choose winners and losers half a year before an election… okey dokey.. Uh.. this was how Obama won the dem primary is it not? Just askin.
Shaun, it’s not what I want. It’s what I’d expect Kaine to do.
James is right in his comment above. This is a risky move for Allen because he has to be in General Election mode instead of Primary mode. So which Allen are we going to see: Governor or Senator? Any gaffes he makes here could have an exponential impact on the Primary. He needs to be very careful here.
turbo,
It is not a matter of the AP picking winners and losers, it is a matter of limiting the debate to viable candidates. The AP didn’t stop Radtke from collecting campaign contributions nor did they stop her from breaking out of single digits in the polls. You seem to think that reporting the news is the same thing as creating the news. It doesn’t work that way when you have a free press, thank God. And, despite your paranoid fantasies about wealthy special interests controlling the MSM, if we didn’t have a free press then Fred Thompson would have easily defeated Hillary Clinton in 2008.
HR-Disagree. It’s the press deciding to end the primary process on THEIR schedule and move on to the general election. That’s not their role.
Right now I am laughing so hard I have to clean myself up.. Thank you AP for this opportunity to expose George Allen. I hope and pray that Allen has agreed to participate in the genral election debate a full 6 months early.. I would imagine Kaine is ok with it. Say what you want about Kaine, his momma didn’t raise no dummy. Both he and Allen have sore points but Allen has more to lose if Kaine is not primaried. God bless the AP! What an incredible gift. With friends like these, Tea Party Movement may lost this battle but long term just might win the war..
“And, despite your paranoid fantasies about wealthy special interests controlling the MSM…”
Are you really suggesting that wealthy special interests do NOT control the MSM? Do wealthy people not have an agenda that they use their wealth to accomplish? Do you have any credibility at all anymore?
Hisroc, in engineering circles there is one thing that remains true.. you must first understand the problem before proposing a solution.
The fundraising problem all of the gop challengers have with the exception of the establishment candidates is name ID. What is the best way to raise name ID without using ones own political party? This may be a trick question.
Tim Donner just posted a statement on Facebook that is actually quite good:
I think she has a point Shaun.
You are a little quick to criticize on this one. Allen obviously will not agree to debate so only the media has the role to let others articulate new ideas.
Jamie,
It is you who has no credibility if you want us to buy into this cockamamie conspiracy theory. Tell us, just who are the wealthy special interests pulling the puppet strings? Is it George Soros or the Koch brothers? Is it Barbara Streisand or Tom Selleck? Is it Sean Penn or Dennis Miller?
You see, Jamie, the problem with your conspiracy theory is that it depends on a monolithic, single-minded, purposefulness. And that clearly does not exist amongst these very diverse and opinionated wealthy elites. Do wealthy people have a disproportionate influence on politics? Of course! Are they united in a sinister plan to dominate the electoral process? Hardly.
Ahh.. The law of unintended consequences..
Shaun, by your logic, nobody should primary anyone if they cannot poll high enough? I fail to see the logic. Clarification please.
Good post JR. My apologies to Donner for misstatementsabout the guy I made in the past..
Clarification? If you can’t challenge the nominee, then don’t step up to the plate.
The only instance where I could think that a primary is worth it in conditions where you know you are going to lose? If you are building for the future…
I don’t see Radtke’s campaign doing this. Donner, OTOH, is doing precisely this, and he responded like a professional who knows he has to make himself a contender first before he gets a title shot.
Primaries should be contested. If it’s not a contest, it’s not a primary. Let’s be honest: 15% isn’t exactly a contested election, either… that is an awfully low bar, and none of the GOP or Dem challengers can meet that bar.
Again, candidates shouldn’t come whining to the AP for what is tantamount to a public relations handout.
Shaun, Jamie would love to challenge George but he does not want to be challenged by having to defend his senate record. His consultants all along have known this and despite the claims to the contrary, George Allen WILL NOT debate Jamie Radtke and the rest of the candidates on the ballot.. Did I say on the ballot? What is the significance, er, insignificance of being on a ballot?
Both the dems and gop have women in primary campaigns who other women are watching closely. Should womens groups hold a debate? Would BD be willing to host this? How about a list of chicks for moderators?
Back to the real world, should AP disclose the extent of party involvement with their decision? Did the RPV agree to this without prior discussion of the “other” candidates? Did Allen or his staff run out of ways to move up in the polls against Kaine and jump the shark?
Who needs a damn primary? Or a convention? Why not just declare challenger petition signatures invalid? Oh wait! Those are some of the RPV’s finest hours. Never mind that Virginia’s taxpayers are footing the bill for this upcoming non-primary. One more reason for state general election law controlling the party primary process. Don’t like it? Let the RPV pay for it.
My only issue with Donner’s statement is the stupid line, ‘undoubtedly with the support of the Republican Party of Virginia’
It doesn’t accomplish anything except further push you away from the party structure.
Don’t bash the Party you’re trying to represent.
He’s a friend, but still, ask Ed Maulbeck how that strategy worked out in the 2nd district primary last year?
Here we go again. Money talks, the rest walks. Don’t like that Radtke or any other candidate is left out? Give to their campaign, that speaks louder than words here.
Things like this is what gives people the excuse to not get involved in politics. It stinks.
What speaks louder than words is the manipulative crap that passes for democracy in this state.
Kathy’s absolutely right on this one.
If you think this is a problem for Radtke, Donner, etc. – not only donate your time and talent on the Internet advocating for them, but also donate your money, time, and talents campaigning for them.
I’m certain that the loudest critics on this comment thread are doing so already, so one has to wonder why the challenger campaigns aren’t gaining any traction? With such strong surrogate advocates as these, surely Radtke or Donner should be polling greater than 15% head-to-head with Allen, right?
And knowing that Steve Vaughn is a liberal advocate, I know he’s dismayed that Courtney Lynch, Kaine’s Fairfax challenger, has also been left out of the debate. Certainly he’s not merely here commenting about Allen’s decision, but also Kaine’s.
Finally, whatever happened to the free market and the market of ideas? You don’t have to watch this debate – or even read about. It can be dismissed as a sham, if you so wish. It can be called a non-event.
The question is, will your fellow citizens share your outrage?
HisRoc,
I’d say I admire your child-like naivete, about this and other issues, like banking fraud for example, but I don’t admire it at all. I have other, stronger words to describe how I feel about it.
Have you heard of Fast and Furious? Are you curious why there’s almost no media coverage of it?
Google “HumanEvents Fast and Furious: Time to Come Clean. The media plays along with a massive cover-up.”
Then ask yourself: if the left media covers up for dems, which they obviously do, and if the right media covers up for repubs, which they obviously do, they are both complicit in the active withholding of information from the public. Then ask yourself: why do they do this? For no other reason than to shape opinion and push their own agenda. Tell me I’m wrong.
*slow clap*
HisRoc wrote, “You see, Jamie, the problem with your conspiracy theory is that it depends on a monolithic, single-minded, purposefulness. And that clearly does not exist amongst these very diverse and opinionated wealthy elites. Do wealthy people have a disproportionate influence on politics? Of course! Are they united in a sinister plan to dominate the electoral process? Hardly.”
I am not taking a side on this issue, but I would say that what HisRoc wrote above is only correct in a very specific way. What I mean is that it is very possible for people to be united by an idea or a set of circumstances and come to the same conclusions, and thus move in the same direction, without it being “coordinated”. Wealthy people could all be in Allen’s pocket because Allen is “wealthy friendly” (a polite way to put that) without there being any kind of centralized coordination. I don’t think you can write Jamie’s comments off as a “conspiracy theory” just by saying that there isn’t some clear political organization pushing a pro-wealthy people agenda. Things don’t need to be monolithic or single-minded to be purposeful.
The TEA party is a good example – a group that almost completely lacks coordination but is held together by a common set of core beliefs that from an outside perspective probably looks a lot like organization because everybody seems to be saying the same basic things.
You can gain support without the MSM, and I do not think that Radtke has done enough to promote herself. All I even know about her is that she is a tea party candidate. I have my issues with Allen, that are obvious, but if you can’t get to double digits in a primary you do not have the organization to have a prayer against a so called “conservative democrat” like Kaine. Kaine has an impressive election machine, as does Allen. I wish there were someone that was solid enough to challenge, but Radtke is not enough.
Shaun said the AP is choosing who will not waste the public’s time. Well it is the public’s time they should be allowed to listen to whom ever they want. Anyone who qualifies to be on the Virginia Ballot I personally feel should have a right to be heard. I don’t like people telling me what chooses they will allow me to make when voting for a candidate. The AP should have just waited to have their debate after the primary.
Turbo yes womens groups, mens groups or any group that will work to bring citizens contact with the candidates so the public can make an informed decision at elections time about which candidate is good for that voter is a good thing. And if Bearing Drift had a debate JR could count on me being one of the first there. Knowing him it would be a great debate.
I think it is important to trust people to make the correct decision for them. That is why citizens can vote. Otherwise we would have an emperor who would appoint the leader and I am sure they would always appoint themselves.
Lastly, turbo, if you are speaking of the League of Women Voter debates please note that the league is made up of men as well as women. They have had men members for a very long time. After all is was because of men supporting the suffragist that women got the right to vote over 90 years ago.
Someone needs to tell Radtke what everyone else already knows.IT IS OVER. YOU ARE NOT GOING TO WIN.You can’t beat George Allen or Tim Kaine.You are broke.Your paid advisors are only giving you false hope so they can keep getting a pay check.
Red Baron, this is not going to be our grandfathers election style. The sheep are not following the herd nor the Hurd for that matter.. the leaderless Tea Party movement needs no leader to respond to this type of outrage.
This AP VCCA tactic is a desperate move by establishment media with a vested interest in lining up support for Obama. Virginia and other battleground states must have democrat senators and congressmen in place to conduct class and race warfare. Big media is gonna play by their rules. This is part of the attack on the enthusiasm of the tea party movement, not policy, not issues, not current affairs.
Go ahead Felix Macacawitz, make my day. Debate Kaine one on one, mano a mano. See where this train is heading?
JR said:
“And knowing that Steve Vaughn is a liberal advocate, I know he’s dismayed that Courtney Lynch, Kaine’s Fairfax challenger, has also been left out of the debate. Certainly he’s not merely here commenting about Allen’s decision, but also Kaine’s.”
Way to miss my point entirely. I wasn’t criticizing Allen or Kaine, I was criticizing the press for deciding to have a general election debate before the candidate selection process is complete.
That’s presumptous and not the role of the press. We should be reportining on winners and losers of the primary process, not picking them.
In every previous year, the end of the nominating process has been soon enough to have the general election candidates face off. Why not this year?
Look, I have no doubt that Allen and Kaine WILL be their parties’ nominees. But it is NOT the role of the press to declare that before it happens.
Courtney Lynch deserves equal time, it seems. Never seen so many Tea Partiers clamor for the Fairness Doctrine than now…
I think things need to be put into perspective. The only people (give or take a few percentage points) who will watch this debate have already decided who they’ll be voting for. You think an independent house-wife of 3 will tune in? Or even care? The election is over a year away. Most people have more important things to worry about. Does anyone actually believe that this debate will change who the nominee is?
This isn’t a presidential race, we don’t have multiple people via for the nomination. We have Tim Kaine and George Allen. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. Allen is at 68% of likely Republican voters. He’d have to have another Macaca moment to fail.
“We have Tim Kaine and George Allen. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. Allen is at 68% of likely Republican voters. He’d have to have another Macaca moment to fail.”
And that my friends is all the more reason for the Obama machine to host a debate with Kaine this early.. I just might cater lunch to the Allen camp as a compliment for going to this debate since he won’t debate the primary challengers.
Allen better be wearing rollerskates and donning a flak jacket though.. dems want their Kaine to win here real bad and the 2.2M he raised is a pittance to all the pac money that is buying up airtime already. Can’t make this stuff up.
Tim Donner’s camp and Bishop Jackson’s camp also released statements against this. Of course, since Bearing Drift believes in “foregone conclusions” about GOP Establishment figures, having a debate of the “titans” (both of whom are below 46% in the polls so they are tied neck and neck for weak incumbent) makes perfect sense in the Bearing Drift world.
At least Newt Gingrich had the good sense during some the the Presidential debates to make sure that the media knew that the field would unite behind the eventual nominee.
Too bad Allen doesn’t have Gingrich’s class on this one.
The other Republican primary candidates should hold a series of local debates throughout Virginia restricted to only those candidates who are polling LESS than 25% of likely GOP voters, or have a cumulative fundraising LESS than the total of the other primary candidates.
You never know, George Allen may eventually meet the requirements to join this series of debates.
Nicholson, the issue is Obama. Bobo money is pouring into Va to defend his wingman Kaine. Go make ad buys in vital markets around the time of the debate and discover that a lot of time slots were locked up well before the debate was announced. Can’t make this stuff up.
Kaine is too vital to Bobo to lose. Allen is juts the type of opportunity clever dems need and they want to clear the path to Allen early on to lay him bare in Va. This will garner national attention and generate a lot of revenue for the media. The AP has some hard core commies for BO in on this gig.. Yes I said that.
As much as I want to see Allen exposed for all Virginians to see him for the progressive he became in the senate after being a strong conservative as governor, I regret that this is the fix the dems need to keep the senate. Even if you think Obama loses no matter what, 2012 election is a year away and a lot can happen… the dems want as much time for their trackers and cohorts to peel layers off of Allen. This is not about Jamie Radtke, Tim Donner, Rev Jackson or Dave McCormick or George Allen, its all about maintaining dem status for Obama 2012. If Allen chooses to debate too early or at all, he is putting the GOP at risk regardless of who is the eventual nominee the people decide on.
Why are we even talking about Radtke she is done.Anyone who can’t see this must be blind.Radtke wants to talk the talk but she isn’t walking the walk.Radtke wants the Federal Government to spend less than they take in which i agree with but she sure hasn’t done this with her campaign.Radtke has to realize that her paid staff only want to keep getting paid.
In retrospect, your little Venn diagram about the GOP candidates for President kind of validates the Radtke campaign argument doesn’t it?
Herman Cain , who by your logic would have been excluded from all of the GOP debates by virtue of money raised and poll numbers, is now leading the pack.
Do you believe that people who would vote for Allen, would turn to Kaine if Radtke or Donner were the GOP candidate for Senate?
Allen should debate the other candidates, not just Radtke, but Donner as well.
He should not hide behind the media’s willingness to pick our candidate before the primary. If he is indeed the best pick, it will come out in the debate; Won’t it?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/10/19/former_virginia_dem_gov_va_dems_dont_want_to_be_seen_with_obama.html
Who is afraid of the big bad Tea Party, George Allen?
http://bearingdrift.com/2011/10/17/donner-on-radtke-does-her-word-mean-nothing/#comment-70751
Apparently Allen IS afraid of the Tea Party; he certainly doesn’t want to debate his record.
I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the Tea Party influence in the primary.
What baffles some is that Team Allen has boasted of Tea Party support.. Which Tea Party organization are they referring to??
Crickets.
I guess I misunderstood where you were coming from.
I agree; Crickets.
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