Connolly: Obama Can’t Win Virginia in 2012
By Shaun Kenney | Tuesday, September 6th, 2011 | PoliticsMy my. Isn’t it all sunshine and puppy dogs at DPVA this month? Because when partisans like Rep. Gerry Connolly say Obama can’t win Virginia, it’s baaaaad…
“In my opinion, no, today he would not win the state,” Connolly said on The Politics Program With Mark Plotkin Friday.
Connolly desperately tries to salvage the conversation by saying Obama *might* win if he only applied himself… and thinks Mitt Romney has “serious baggage that has yet to be examined” — ostensibly by labor goons and other self-appointed strumabteilung of the certifiably insane left wing.
I love it. RPV muses as to why Connolly seems a bit down in the dumps:
Maybe it’s got something to do with President Obama’s views on the economy, and of Right to Work laws like Virginia’s.
Ouch.
Connolly, of course, is on the ropes in the event of a GOP swing in Virginia… and if whispers in the loggia concerning redistricting efforts at General Assembly are credible, it seems as if Richmond Democrats are more than happy to throw Connolly and Northern Virginia liberals directly under the bus — and catch every single wheel.
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Shaun Kenney is the Chairman of the Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors, former Communications Director for the Republican Party of Virginia, and an active blogger since 2002. Shaun lives in Thomas Jefferson's backyard with his wife, six children, and a modest attempt at a farm in Kents Store, Virginia.
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4 Responses to "Connolly: Obama Can’t Win Virginia in 2012"
from Connolly’s lips to God’s ears
No surprise here, Shaun. Gonzo Gerry would throw his own mother under the bus to win re-election. He was more than happy to link arms with Obama to win his first House race in 2008. In 2009, he sold his vote on ObamaCare for lots of DNC-paid TV ads for the 2010 mid-terms, ads that a freshman can’t normally afford in one of the most expensive TV markets in the country. Now that Obama is starting to look more and more like a one-term President, Gerry is distancing himself from him. Watch next for Gerry to start putting Tim Kaine at arms-length. The 11th CD is neither decidedly red nor blue. It is a moderate swing voter district and Connolly knows how to play the voters like a fiddle.
“The 11th CD is neither decidedly red nor blue. It is a moderate swing voter district and Connolly knows how to play the voters like a fiddle.”
It will be decidedly blue if that incumbent protection plan they all agreed to eventually passes, which is more likely than not.
Don’t count on it, Steve. Jim Moran needs to pick up precincts to keep his population count relative and Gerry will need to gain some to replace them. If the Democrats want to keep VA-8 safely blue, then Moran will have to take Connolly’s more Democratic precincts in eastern Fairfax (such as the Mount Vernon area and Fairfax inside the beltway), leaving Gerry to pick up red precincts in Prince William or Loudoun. The only alternative is to continue to extend Moran’s gerrymander tail out past Reston and into Sterling and Herndon. That still causes Connolly to lose reliable Democratic precincts. Connolly won re-election in 2010 by less than 1,000 votes. And now he is caught in a squeeze play between Moran and Frank Wolf. This is where the true meaning of the term “seniority” comes into play.
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