Was Hurricane Irene over-hyped?
By Lynn R. Mitchell | Tuesday, August 30th, 2011 | VirginiaNo sooner does a disaster pass than the finger pointing begins, and the aftermath of Hurricane Irene has been no different.
The blame game has begun by those suggesting that the media over-hyped the storm because New York City and other areas that had seen extensive preparation were not destroyed, as feared by forecasters and those tracking the storm.
We should all count our blessings that Irene didn’t do more damage because, unfortunately, there was plenty of impact and tragedy for many. So why the “over-hype” accusations?
At last count, 40 people in eleven states have lost their lives including four in Virginia. Flooded homes have caught fire. Hundreds (thousands?) of homes were badly damaged. Up to half a dozen beloved covered bridges in Vermont were washed away by flood waters. Tornadoes caused major damage and destroyed at least one home in Sandbridge.
In the Richmond area, rain and wind caused thousands of trees to be blown down on houses and cars. Falling trees were responsible for deaths in North Carolina and Virginia. By Saturday evening 75% of residents in Richmond were without electricity but by Monday that figure had dropped to 60%. That’s still a lot of folks without air conditioning and refrigeration but Dominion said 90-95% should be back online by Friday. At the hard-hit coastal area, many were also without power and had endured damaging flooding conditions.
Churches, civic groups, fire departments, the Red Cross, and others in Virginia are distributing free ice and bottled water to help residents make it through the next few days. Neighbors helping neighbors … that’s how it’s done along the Eastern Seaboard.
Connecticut reported the highest number of people without electricity in the state’s history. They estimate $282 million in damages.
Flooding has destroyed countless homes and buildings from North Carolina to Vermont. Storm surges crushed parts of the coast. Vermont continues to deal with devastating flash floods as rain from Irene helped rivers overflow their banks.
Governors up and down the East Coast braced and prepared for the storm. Skirting the Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coasts, Irene slammed into North Carolina causing devastation along Hatteras, flooding NC 12 and breaking through the roadway in several places near Rodanthe causing deep gouges that will require extensive repairs.
Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell stayed on top of the situation from the beginning, sending National Guard members and Sate Police to hardest-hit areas. In the aftermath, he has urged those who wish to help their neighbors to contribute to the Virginia Disaster Relief Fund.
New Jersey estimates $2.1 billion in damages from the storm while New York is estimating $2 billion in damages. North Carolina could see up to $400 million in damages. Total damages could grow to billions of dollars in the eleven affected states.
Instead of blaming weather forecasters and the media for “over-hyping,” we should consider ourselves lucky it wasn’t worse because, for those affected, it was bad enough and in some cases life-altering. Stop the finger pointing and blame game. There’s work to be done … someone out there could use a helping hand.
Update: Colin Lord, a meteorology major from Florida State, added scientific reasoning as to why Hurricane Irene was not over-hyped:
“Definitely not over-hyped,” Lord said. “We’ve come leaps and bounds in forecasting the path of storms in the last 10 years.
“Something that is still much a mystery is the intensity forecast. In 2005, Hurricane Wilma exploded in 24 hours to a category 5 when nobody saw it coming. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew went from a tropical storm to a category 4 in less than 24 hours.
“Irene was forecast to be a category 2 and was a tropical storm. Instead of missing downwards, we could have missed upwards. If Irene took a track slightly to the right, missed the NC Outer Banks, and went through an unexpected eye wall replacement cycle, it would have been a disaster.
“Storms speed up and they move towards New England and you could have been facing a category 3+ storm suddenly heading right for New York with no time to evacuate.”
Cross-posted at SWAC Girl
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About the author
As SWAC Girl (an acronym for Staunton, Waynesboro, and Augusta County), Lynn has been writing in the Virginia political blogosphere since 2006. Active in area politics, she has coordinated campaigns and served in leadership for the past decade. The Shenandoah Valley of Virginia is one of the most beautiful places to call home ... the Republican Party carries her beliefs.
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10 Responses to "Was Hurricane Irene over-hyped?"
Well said.
My only issue with it is this. I’ve heard over and over again people making fun of the storm, and saying stuff like they would never evacuate from a storm, because they somehow think there is something out there that keeps these storms from being big, or they just think this is as big a deal as they get because they’ve never experienced worse. We were extremely lucky, but the inaccurate reporting of wind speeds does create a bit of a cry wolf scenario. Now is this all the media’s fault? Absolutely not. It is however important to spread the word of exactly what a storm that follows the predicted strength and path of Irene would cause. If people did not heed the warnings and this ended up being a cat 3 or 4 storm, the death count would be considerably higher. In the data, I never saw any indications that Irene was even a strong cat 1 storm when it hit the coast, and there were signs showing clear weakening before they ever downgraded their forecast. While I understand they want to err on the side of forecasting too aggressively, it can contribute to a mindset of invincibility.
Josh: Well, also bad weather is red meat for local TV news. They are really the ones that go overboard. Irene may have only been a cat 1 storm, but a look at Hampton Roads or Richmond will tell you that a cat 1 storm is nothing to mess with.
Was Hurricane Irene over-hyped? Absolutely not! How many times have you been under a tornado warning and nothing happened? Does that mean that the tornado activity was over-hyped? Tell that to the people in Joplin, Missouri.
I grew up in hurricane country (Princess Anne County) and have seen more fizzles than storms. That doesn’t mean that you don’t take the warnings seriously. Hurricanes are almost as unpredictable as tornadoes. They change direction and speed with little or no warning. Does anybody remember Gloria in 1985? It was bearing directly towards Hampton Roads until it abruptly shifted course and clobbered New Jersey and Long Island instead. (This was the storm that Pat Robertson claimed he turned away from Virginia Beach by the power of prayer. No explanation from Rev. Pat on why prayer apparently only has a maximum effective range of 300 miles. Is his God that impotent or just fickle?) Was Gloria over-hyped? Not to those of us hunkered down in Virginia Beach that long Friday night. And, yes, at one point during the night a TV station reported that Portsmouth was being evacuated. Mistakes happen in a crisis.
Great post, Lynn. Tell our friends in the media to keep up the good work.
Governor McDonnell was ready, his staff was ready, state resources were ready and Virginia’s coordinated resources were ready. Preparing for a disaster that has not happened but is statistacally proven to wreak havoc is good insurance against greater loss and Bob should be commended for anticipating but not over reacting to the after affects of this storm. Friends in the EMS community clearly indicate that coordination with state resources has never been better than it is today and had a cat 2 or greater hit, we would have undeniable proof nobody wants to verify but would have witnessed.
Yeah I hope the guy runs for president in 2016. Bob repeatedly exhibits good judgement and knows who to surround himself with to delegatge responsibility to and we need this in DC.
Lynn this is excellent. When Irene was 85 miles an hour winds with much higher gusts and hours of tornado warnings I certainly didn’t feel it was over-hyped. The glass on the sliding glass doors bowed, the chandelier swayed and I am thankful it wasn’t worse.
I am sure the families who lost loved ones from this storm will never think it was over-hyped.
But the same media will bank on prognostications of global warming fanatics.
News flash, Brian. Global climate change (not global warming) is pretty much accepted science. Even the Bush Administration agreed with that conclusion. The debate now is to what extent it is caused by human activity.
Try to keep up, okay?
This is what leadership looks like. http://www.bearingdrift.com/2011/08/29/loyola-has-his-priorities-after-storm/#comment-68231
oops, delete, wrong link..
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