*-Cross-posted at NoVa Common Sense.-*
With the delay in nominations from mid-June to mid-August, also comes the delay in the two-weeks-prior reporting period before an election, so right on the heels of the Q2 reports comes the next fundraising round-up. These numbers reflect fundraising for close to six weeks of campaigning, from July 1 to August 10. Because its an abbreviated report, rather than the full quarter, looking at the numbers is a bit trickier. Some candidates did well in the short-time frame, but if you didn’t happen to have a big fundraising event in that six-week period, you may come in with a lower number. Still, all numbers have meaning, and since we’re covering races across the state, not everyone is going to be familiar with every race (most of all, me), so these numbers give us one view into how the election cycle is progressing.
There are also some additions since last month, as late entrants and surprise retirements bring new candidates. As always, the numbers reported reflect:
Candidate: Raised this period | Cash on Hand | # of Individual Donors
(The raised amount is taken from total reciepts, which includes contributions, in-kinds, and loans. Where evident, I try to point out various anomolies like huge self-loans or party involvement.)
Because this report is for two weeks before the primary, many cash-on-hand numbers are low, as they should be. We begin in Northern Virginia, and move on from there.
Fairfax Districts:
Uncontested: HD 35 (Keam), HD 38 (Kory), HD 39 (Watts), HD 40 (Hugo), HD 41 (Filler-Corn), HD 43 (Sickles), HD 86 (Rust)
HD 34:
Barbara Comstock (i): $77K | $256K | 154
Pamela Danner: $61K | $76K | 223
McDonnell Vote: 57%
Both candidates continue to raise gobs of money in what is sure to be the most expensive House race of the cycle. While Danner’s $10K-a-week haul is impressive for a challenger, she still lags far, far behind Comstock in the cash-on-hand department. The Democratic Caucus was always going to have to invest in this race, but Comstock’s huge totals means that they might have to put more money here than originally planned, and that could affect how much lower-tier races receive.
Much, much more below the fold. Click here to continue reading.
HD 36:
Ken Plum (i): $52K | $79K | 92
Mac Cannon: $225 | $11K | 4
McDonnell Vote: 42%
HD 37:
David Bulova (i): $37K | $55K | 134
Brian Schoeneman: $3K | $4K | 23
McDonnell Vote: 53%
Schoeneman took July off to study for the bar exam, explaining his low fundraising numbers. However, his high burn rate continues, as his cash-on-hand total is now cut in half from a month ago. While you don’t need money to knock on doors, particularly in a district where over half the voters have never been represented by Bulova before, it certainly helps.
HD 42:
Dave Albo (i): $67K | $109K | 83
Jack Dobbyn: $20K | $12K | 90
McDonnell Vote: 58%
Dave Albo is used to having the most expensive race in the state, but this year that torch seems to be passed onto Comstock. Still, Jack Dobbyn, who had a good quarter last time around, is starting to fall far behind, while spending a lot of money. Again, expect Dem Caucus support here, as Dobbyn will need it to make up the nearly $100K advantage.
HD 44:
Scott Surovell (i): $17K | $40K | 95
John Barsa: $4K | $4K | 26
McDonnell Vote: 46%
John Barsa, a Cuban-born businessman who is a former Army Reservist and has worked in all levels of public service, is a late entrant in this race against freshman and former Fairfax County Democratic Chairman Scott Surovell. Surovell’s numbers reflect the fundraising of an incumbent who didn’t have a challenger for much of the summer, while Barsa’s report reflects the filings of a candidate in the race for mere days. While this is a tough district for a Republican to win, and tougher now after re-districting, a strong race from Barsa could keep Surovell and his money tied down in Eastern Fairfax. Full Disclosure: I was the campaign manager for Jay McConville in 2009, in a campaign against Surovell.
HD 67:
Jim LeMunyon (i): $32K | $109K | 50
Eric Clingan: $29K | $30K | 96
McDonnell Vote: 58%
Clingan comes close to outraising the incumbent here, but doesn’t come close to matching his cash-on-hand total in this Republican district. Clingan will likely need help from the Dem Caucus, but it remains to be seen how high of a target they consider LeMunyon, who has won praise for his first two years in office and is a good fit for the district and Northern Virginia.
Alexandria/Arlington/Falls Church Districts:
Uncontested: HD 45 (Englin), HD 46 (Herring), HD 47 (Hope), HD 48 (Brink), HD 53 (Scott)
HD 49:
Stephanie Clifford: $5K | $3K | 60
Alfonso Lopez: $13K | $21K | 77
McDonnell Vote: 32%
Last month I didn’t have Clifford’s numbers to put this report together; this month’s report are skewered by the fact that the election is so close. However, Lopez has clearly outraised Clifford, raising $65K (including a $27K self-loan) over the course of the campaign to Clifford’s $25K. Still, money doesn’t always buy votes, especially in a low-turnout primary with a highly educated and engaged political base inside the Beltway.
Prince William County Districts:
Uncontested: HD 50 (Miller), HD 51 (Anderson)
HD 2:
Esteban Garces: $20K | $16K | 129
Mark Dudenhefer: $24K | $31K | 47
McDonnell Vote: 58%
After only raising $20K combined in the three months of Q2, both candidates eclipse that total in the following six weeks. Dudenhefer has the fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage, but Garces features more than double the amount of donors.
HD 13:
Bob Marshall (i): $10K | $49K | 33
Carl Genthner: $12K | $9K | 46
McDonnell Vote: 61%
For a second straight reporting period, Genthner outraised the incumbent Bob Marshall. No matter; I’m not sure anyone expects this race to be particularly close.
HD 31:
Scott Lingamfelter (i): $4K | $24K | 19
Roy Coffey: $6K | $3K | 30
McDonnell Vote: 60%
Full Disclosure: I am a former staffer for Del. Lingamfelter. This race is a perfect example of the pitfall of an abberviated reporting cycle, as Lingamfelter, who has raised money at a modest-to-good clip thus far, turns in only $4K, and is actually outraised by his opponent. However, Coffey has only raised $13K (including a $5K self-loan) thus far for the entire cycle, and spent most of it. Perhaps he and his team are still tabulating the results for their clever T-shirt slogan contest (which ended over a month ago). On a side note, I would definitely buy a T-shirt that says “Del. Scott Lingamfetler went to France and all I got was Option 2”.
HD 52:
Luke Torian (i): $21K | $62K | 81
Cleveland Anderson: $3K | $23K | 25
McDonnell Vote: 46%
The GOP’s bid to add another Anderson to the PWC Delegation seems to be hitting a fundraising wall, as the Cleveland version adds only $3K to his totals in an uphill district. Boosting his cash-on-hand, though, is a $15K self-loan that will help in the closing months of the campaign.
Loudoun Districts:
Uncontested: HD 32 (Greason), HD 33 (May)
HD 10:
David Butler: $28K | $37K | 62
Randy Minchew: $15K | $32K | 53
Cara Townsend: $3K | $11K | 29
John Whitbeck: $12K | $11K | 44
McDonnell Vote: 62%
Randy Minchew outraises the field again, even with a less-than-stellar $15K haul. However, his $32K cash-on-hand disguises the fact that he has spent a whopping $95K in the past six weeks, as the primary comes to a close. To compare, Townsend has spent $10K over the same period, and Whitbeck $45K. Whitbeck also added $20K in a self-loan, so he and Minchew appear to be the top dogs in this fight. Butler’s fundraising is impressive for a seat that I wouldn’t expect the Democrats to hold. He may require the GOP Caucus to invest in this seat when they otherwise wouldn’t.
HD 87:
Mike Kondratick: $14K | $34K | 75
Jo Ann Chase: $6K | $12K | 55
David Ramadan: $82K | $71K | 49
McDonnell Vote: 59%
If you thought raising $82K in six weeks, and having $71K left for the final two weeks of a primary, were eye-popping numbers, then you may want to brace yourself. David Ramadan has spend One-Hundred-and-Twenty-One THOUSAND Dollars in the past six weeks. That is $3,000 a day, or half of what Jo Ann Chase raised in the same amount of time (Chase spent $8,725 in the past six weeks, or $213.05 a day). Chase’s supporters may point out that Ramadan has given himself $32K on top of a $50K loan, and has $122K from just three donors… however, she’d need a lot more cash to let voters know this (oddly enough, the comments section below doesn’t reach as many undecided voters as you’d think).
Rest of Virginia:
Uncontested: Most of them.
HD 3:
Will Morefield (i): $25K | $45K | 25
Vern Presley: $9K | $6K | 38
McDonnell Vote: 70%
Panhandle. Morefield steps on the gas on fundraising while Presley eases off, and now the young incumbent holds an over 7-times cash-on-hand advantage.
HD 9:
Charles Poindexter (i): $98K | $45K | 77
Ward Armstrong (i): $227K | $429K | 184
McDonnell Vote: 68%
South of Roanoke. Like last time, its important to put Armstrong’s numbers in context of being a sitting Delegate and the current Minority Leader, which is why his numbers can’t be viewed at as typical for a challenger. Poindexter actually raises the most of any incumbent defending his own seat, with nearly $100K raised, but of course Armstrong easily tops that. Still, money only goes so far in a rural district so I’d expect so see most of that half-million doled out to other races… or kept in a massive piggy jar for Armstrong’s expected 2013 statewide run.
HD 12:
Don Langrehr: $14K | $16K | 90
Joseph Yost: $2K | $1K | 16
McDonnell Vote: 51%
Southwest Virginia. Yost puts up discouraging numbers for an outside-shot pick-up opportunity, though it could just be that this was a randomly slow six-week period. Though spending less than $2K during that time doesn’t help the argument.
HD 18:
Kevin Kelley: $16K | $2K | 29
Michael Webert: $63K | $44K | 43
McDonnell Vote: 62%
These two Republicans are vying for Clay Athey’s vacant Fauquier-based seat. Webert is in the lead cash-wise, though Bryan Magalen (whoever that is), of Middleburg Virginia, has donated $70,000 to his campaign thus far, and seems to really want Webert to win.
HD 19:
Lacey Putney (i): $35K | $76K | 37
Lewis Medlin: $2K | $1K | 1
Jerry Johnson: $0 | $53.94 | 0
McDonnell Vote: 62%
Shenandoah. Lacey Putney is sure to continue his tenure as Dean of the House. But races like these sometimes afford us a chance to look at numbers that form a complete narrative of a campaign. Republican Jerry Johnson had $53 and ninety-four cents in his campaign account as of July 1st. He then loaned his campaign $700 on August 5th, and on August 10th paid the $700 filing fee, leaving his cash (and cents) on hand total untouched.
HD 20:
Dickie Bell (i): $6K | $17K | 23
Laura Kleiner: $3K | $1K | 45
McDonnell Vote: 61%
HD 21:
Ron Villanueva (i): $20K | $32K | 27
Adrianne Bennett: $27K | $12K | 38
McDonnell Vote: 61%
Virginia Beach. Bennett outraises the incumbent, “Landslide Ron”, but her high burn-rate (both candidates spent just under $20K in the six-week period) leaves her behind on cash-on-hand. We may see both caucuses get involved here, as Bennett seems to be fundraising well, even in a McDonnell 61% district.
HD 56
Steve Thomas: N/A
McDonnell Vote: 71%
Louisa & Henrico Counties. Del. Bill Janis, in office since 2002, for some reason is now deciding he wants to run for Henrico County’s Commonwealth Attorney. Kind of odd. Anyways, this is a very late-developing race with only one candidate thus far and no fundraising report. Given the tilt of the district, I don’t expect to see much action on the Dem side here.
HD 59:
Matt Fariss: $10K | $499 | 14
Connie Brennan: $47K | $31K | 164
McDonnell Vote: 67%
South of Charlottesville. This was previously the one race in the state with a contested nomination on both sides of the aisle. However, both contesters have dropped out, leaving a Farris vs Brennan battle. Brennen is raising money well, with $47K in the past six weeks and a huge cash-on-hand advantage (though half of her total has come from people who share her last name and a PAC in her name), while Fariss has $499 in the bank. Still, a $30K advantage can’t erase the other looming number in this race: 67%, or the total that Bob McDonnell got in this district two years ago.
HD 64:
William Barlow (i): $18K | $36K | 31
Richard Morris: $18K | $14K | 37
McDonnell Vote: 66%
Isle of Wight. I didn’t have the fundraising reports last month, but now we do, and the challenger, Morris, actually outraised the incumbent by $200-some dollars. While he trails in cash-on-hand, this is a race that could be interesting given the red hue of the district.
HD 75:
Roslyn Tyler (i): $12K | $28K | 9
Al Peschke: N/A
McDonnell Vote: 49%
Southside. Less exciting is this race, where I can’t find a report for Peschke (nor could I find one for him last month, either). He’s either not raising any money—a bold strategy in a tough district—or he’s breaking the law, an even bolder strategy. Either way, I don’t think we’ll be sitting on the edges of our seats for this race in November.
HD 90:
Algie Howell (i): $30K | $21K | 74
Rick James: $7K | $10K | 17
McDonnell Vote: 35%
Norfolk. This primary seems to be getting some attention, so its not just a random ankle-biter running. Still, Howell is expected to prevail.
HD 93:
Robin Abbott (i): $51K | $45K | 106
Michael Watson: $40K | $43K | 77
McDonnell Vote: 55%
Williamsburg. Abbott continues to raise money well, and spend it fast. However, her totals dipped from Q2, while Watson doubled his haul. Throw in a $10K self-loan, and the cash-on-hand battle is neck-and-neck, while Abbott has to contend with moving into the district and a much more Republican seat that she originally won. This is a race to watch.
HD 94:
David Yancey: N/A
Gary West: N/A
McDonnell Vote: 61%
Newport News. Glenn Oder got named to a Fort Monroe Commission and is stepping down from his seat. Like Janis’s seat, this is a late-breaking race and there are no fundraising reports from either candidate yet. McDonnell won here, but this could still be a swingy district.
HD 98:
Sherwood Bowditch: $15K | $16K | 71
Ken Gibson: N/A
Keith Hodges: $30K | $28K | 113
Catesby Jones: $16K | $6K | 51
Andrew Shoukas: $0 | $0 | 0
McDonnell Vote: 69%
Middle Peninsula. This race is more contested than I thought it would be, at least on the Republican side. Bowditch has received money from the retiring Harvey Morgan and outraised the field in Q2. However, Hodges now outraised him and has more on-hand (no loans or self-funding, either), though Bowditch spent $49K in the past six weeks to Hodges’ $42K. I have to think that with Morgan’s backing Bowditch is the favorite, but I’d be lying if I said I knew anything about this race. On the Dem side, since he’s not likely to win its actually kind of nice of Shoukas to not bother anybody asking for money.
HD 99:
Nick Smith: $1K | $661 | 9
John Lampmann: N/A
Margaret Ransone: $28K | $43K | 122
Dean Sumner: N/A
McDonnell Vote: 66%
Northern Neck. After withstanding derision from both sides of the aidle, the Dem Caucus finally found a live body to put up in the seat of one of their retiring member, even if he’s unimaginatively named. Most of his meager haul has come from family members, though. Oddly enough, the retiring Al Pollard, who has over $13K in his account, has given his money back to the Caucus, to various other Delegates (including unopposed Republican Tom Rust), and to local community funds, and in the past six weeks found the time to give to Warm Armstrong and Adam Ebbin, yet has not given to Nick Smith. Make of that what you will. On the GOP side, Margaret Ransone continues her impressive fundraising, and is actually the only candidate to have filed a report.
State Overview:
Apathy remains the name of the game here, as even though some new races were added on, two of them were caused by retiring Delegates (and one of them only has one candidate thus far), which means the 44th is the only non-open seat to get added to the map.
Only 13 out of 61 Republican seats are being challenged by the Democrats, and of those 13 I would only count 7 or 8 as serious challenges (depending on how Oder’s seat shapes up), and only 5 (Comstock, Albo, Morefield, Poindexter, and Villanueva) as real pick-up opportunities for Democrats, even though I rate all of them as “Lean GOP” or better right now. Meanwhile, Republicans are likewise only challenging 12 Democratic seats. That includes three transplanted seats (HDs 2, 10, and 87) and the open seat in the 99th, all of which lean to the GOP. On top of which, you have Schoeneman, Yost, Morris, and Watson who represent real pick-up opportunities for the GOP. Despite already holding a 61-39 advantage, that’s 8 real pick-up shots for the GOP to only 5 for the Dems. I would expect a net 2-3 seats on a bad night for the GOP, and a half-dozen or more on a good night for the GOP.
Trendsetters:
Top Five Contested Incumbent Fundraisers: Ward Armstrong ($227K), Charles Poindexter ($98K), Barbara Comstock ($77K), Dave Albo ($67K), Ken Plum ($52K)
Top Five Non-Incumbent Fundraisers: Dave Ramadan ($82K), Michael Webert ($63K), Pam Danner ($61K), Connie Brennan ($47K), Mike Watson ($40K)
Top Five Contested Incumbent Cash-on-Hand: Ward Armstrong ($429K), Barbara Comstock ($256K), Dave Albo ($109K), Jim LeMunyon ($109K), Ken Plum ($79K)
Top Five Non-Incumbent Cash-on-Hand: Pam Danner ($76K), Dave Ramadan ($11K), Michael Webert ($44K), Margaret Ransone ($43K), Mike Watson ($43K)
Challengers Who Outraised Incumbents: Carl Genthner, Roy Coffey, Richard Morris
Challengers With More Cash-on-Hand Than Incumbents: None
