Ames Straw Poll Preview
By Chris Saxman | Friday, August 12th, 2011 | PoliticsTo put the Ames Straw Poll into Virginia political context, think about a statewide Mass Meeting. While this poll is technically symbolic, symbolism in politics is important in that it will show organizational strength and relative popularity of the candidates.
The rules of the Ames Straw Poll have been cleaned up since the 1999 poll in which widespread fraud was fairly evident with some people casting multiple ballots by washing off the ink from their hand stamps. This year the GOP has gone so far as to require photo identification and then will use indelible ink for thumb dipping a la Iraq’s first real election.
It will be important for candidates to finish in the top half dozen to have a credible chance at the nomination; however, Senator John McCain did finish 10th in 2007.
The candidates need to do well this weekend for critical fundraising appeals and no candidate needs a solid showing more than former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.
The candidates listed on the printed ballots which will be electronically counted are Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Thaddeus McCotter, Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. Voters can also write in candidates of their choice as well.
While Iowa primary voters are known for being socially conservative, social conservatives will have to decide between Santorum, Bachmann, Paul and Cain among others. This will leave the door open for Romney and Huntsman to place better than if there were just four or five candidates. Remember that Romney did win the Ames Straw Poll handily in 2007 with 31% with Mike Huckabee and Kansas neighbor Senator Sam Brownback getting 18% and 15% respectively. Also of note is the fact that in 2007 Congressman Tom Tancredo, a staunch opponent to illegal immigration, finished fourth with 13% of the vote.
The wild cards for the Straw Poll will be Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, McCain’s former running mate. If they can do well in the write ins, all bets are off as to who the current front runner really is at this point.
Just to start the wheels spinning, lets throw the door open to pure speculation as to how the vote will go.
Romney should win this again and probably will. Campaign manager Matt Rhoades is laser focused on winning and I believe they have appeared to have been quiet while working very hard at getting their voteras back to Ames. This will tamp down any negative talk if Romney does not win outright as he did in 2007.
Bachmann finishes second due to her recent strong showing on the debt ceiling debate in Iowa as well as her strong social conservative credentials.
Santorum comes in at third as he has moved his family, his very large family, to Iowa and has been campaigning extremely hard there. A poor showing could effectively end his campaign.
Perry and Palin will finish in the next tier with significant write ins and turn the nomination on its head. Hard to tell which one will do better, but smart money would be on Perry since he is actively working but not officially campaigning anywhere. If Perry does shock the political world with a third place or higher showing in Ames, the press t quickly declare this a two man race between Romney and Perry – which will be true.
Look for Governor Perry to be more visible this week in Iowa. If he makes an appearance at the poll, that will unsettle many announced and on the ballot candidates. Perry is a Texas A&M Aggie and I wouldn’t put it past an Aggie to come to the weekend’s biggest political party. He’s a Texan and on the move. The base would LOVE it. Just sayin…
Herman Cain(recently)and Ron Paul (historically)have done well in straw polls. Paul finished a distant fifth in 2007 with 9%. They will likely make their presence known at this event and do well again at this straw poll..
That leaves the T-Paw question. He will likely finish outside of the top five dashing his hopes for the nomination. While a very effective governor and ridiculously nice guy, his inability to hit Governor Romney in their first debate left many conservatives wondering whether he was the right guy to back. Since the Ames Straw Poll has an abundance of more aggressive conservatives who are thirsting for a full throated campaign against President Obama, it appears Pawlenty will not be their guy.
Huntsman, Gingrich and McCotter will finish in the lowest tier due to the facts that Huntsman has not done much of anything in Iowa, Gingrich’s campaign is, politely, over while McCotter’s name ID is probably under the margin of error and he will finish last.
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13 Responses to "Ames Straw Poll Preview"
After last night, who really cares? Not one of the candidates revealed themself to be Presidential material, unless of course, we want a President whose only trait is criticism of the actions of others. Not one of the bunch offered a real prescription for creating jobs and moving the country forward. As we have seen, more cuts may be popular on the campaign trail, but that is a prescription for disaster for our economy. For those of us who are driven by pragmatism and results, the circus last night was most discouraging.
Pragmatism and results? How do you even take what you blather on about seriously?
Mike,
Those of us driven by pragmatism and results will want to replace Obama and give someone else a chance.
I guess my measure is if one of those candidates had been presented with the same set of circumstances with which the President was presented, that is, the near fiscal collapse of the international banking system, the collapse of the mortgage market, the bankruptcy of major financial insitutions, and the loss of jobs caused by the policies of the Bush administration, could they have done better? All we know is they want to make hay of the situation caused by the republican Bush administration which cause the Great Recession. What would they have done? What will they do now other than criticize the policies of the President, which by the way, have gotten us out of recession, have contributed to job growth in the private sector, has instituted health care reform that has reduced the projected ten year deficit, and which is doing well given the intrasigence of the republican party which controls the House of Representatives, and which now has the lowest rating for effectiveness in the history of the rating system.
look at the “God of Materialism” picture at the bottom
http://mlartsource.com/en/blog/29/Melanie-Lum-ml-art-source-emergency-escape-chen-wenling-golden-bull-madoff
That is your baby in the bathtub saying “must raise taxes, need higher taxes, more taxes, more taxes”.
The reaction of the financial system to the failure of Congress to institute needed budgetary reform created a cloud of uncertainty that has cost the United States its unblemished credit rating, damaged business and consumer confidence and sent the stock market on a wild ride, eliminating trillions of dollars of shareholder value in just a few weeks. And the candidates last night appeared to be totally oblivious to the devastating effects of the very policies they advocate on the portfolios of all of us, not to mention the failure to actually address job creation. If this is the field, and their rhetoric last evening is what we will have to bear on Fox until a candidate is selected, thank goodness for their soccer channel.
Thank goodness lots of us took Grover’s advice to run from Obama’s lies and to get into alternative currencies like Swiss Francs and precious metals. As to last night, a whole lot of truth was spoken the necessity to get rid of Obama and his leftist political Cartel that is taking over and controlling this country. Call it the “Obama Cartel”.
Chris,
“Reforming” the Iowa Straw Poll is nothing less than putting lipstick on a pig. It is totally useless in predicting the future nominee and, as such, is a distraction that serves only as a carnival fund-raiser for the Iowa Republican Party. I’ll bet that the locals out there chortle with glee at the rubes who spend tens of millions of dollars on a rigged beauty contest. Think about that the next time you make a campaign contribution to your favorite Republican. Here is a better description of this fraud than I could ever write:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/should-the-iowa-straw-poll-be-put-out-to-pasture/2011/08/12/gIQAvZMSBJ_story.html
Check out The Iowa Republican’s predictions for a dose of reality:
http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/august-surprise-can-ron-paul-win-the-iowa-straw-poll/
Trevor,
You are acting like a petulant child. A dose of reality is that Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann have bought the Iowa Straw Poll by spending million of dollars for supporters’ tickets.
If you think that this charlatan can win a single open primary then you are living in Donald Trump’s la-la fantasy land.
But, hey, go ahead and send another contribution to Ron Paul. It will be well spent to buy free BBQ for Iowa State Fair goers. Why don’t we have the same event in Fairfax County? I would love to be paid to go eat free BBQ and pretend to give a damn for who should be the Republican nominee.
Tim,
FXF/CEF/GTU/NEM/SLW and many of their friends.
Be careful with CHF, however, the Swiss banks are grotesquely exposed to CHF-denominated mortgages in Poland, Hungary and elsewhere. There’s a good article on Seekingalpha titled “Europe’s Next Problem: Swiss Franc Denominated Mortgages” that outlines the problem with the Forint, Zloty, Lev, etc. There may come a time to bail out of CHF, and it’s one of the things I’m watching for.
As expected, Bachmann won with Ron Paul as a close second. Which means absolutely nothing as to who the Republican candidate will be.
From Iowa to the Tea Party and Libertarians: “thanks for the free BBQ, suckers.”
Yes, I guess in early August, the news media needs a fake event to have something to talk about. The republican party needs to continue its efforts to create a political crisis since the economic crisis has been over for some time. So having eight screaming heads trying to outdo each other in insulting the President of the United States on Fox is what passes for serious policy debate. Having their campaigns buy votes for the poll makes it even more of a fantasy. Frankly, much ado about nothing, and if this is the state of the republican party, the nation will be pleased to re-elect the President.
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