2012: The Nightmare Scenario
By Michael Fletcher | Wednesday, August 3rd, 2011 | Catch-All
“There is a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man’s fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call the Twilight Zone.”
Here at Bearing Drift, our source speculates that 2012 could be such a scenario in Virginia.
Consider:
1) We’ve already told you that Mark Warner is bored with the Senate. There was speculation that he wanted to run for Governor again. But with the likelihood that the Republicans take back the State Senate this fall, would Warner want to be Chief Excecutive with an all GOP legislature? Especially when he’s lost tax-hikers like Chichester and Potts?
2) We know that in 2012, Virginia is a Battleground state. Barack Obama knows he has to win.
3) Kaine vs. Allen is, for now, a statistical tie. Timmy could use a boost. In all likelihood, the party that carries the state for President carries the Senate race.
4) Yesterday, Ward started the Biden Dropout Watch. He’s just too much of an embarassment.
5) Warner’s “Gang of Six” proposal went nowhere and he had little faith in the final deal. As Jim Hoeft wrote in the Daily Press: “The most optimistic and supposedly centrist Democratic senator, who has been crafting a bi-partisan solution for months, suddenly sees no hope?”
Toss all those points into a the magic blender and here’s the nightmare scenario.
Mark Warner announces that he’s not running for re-election in 2014.
Due to “personal reasons,” Joe Biden steps down as the Vice Presidential candidate.
Barack Obama selects Mark Warner to be his running mate in 2012.
Absurd? Fantasy? Insane?
Oh yeah, it’s all three.
It’s also plausible.
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About the author
Michael Fletcher works as a freelance writer and consultant in Richmond, Virginia. He blogs regularly at http://www.thewritesideofmybrain.com, http://www.richmondvabusiness.com and http://365thingsibelieve.wordpress.com
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22 Responses to "2012: The Nightmare Scenario"
Oh Lord help us. Our brains are in overdrive already. We won’t be able to take it.
Obama needs other states more than he needs VA. In other words he can win without VA. I guess people who live in a town think its the center of existence.
As I noted elsewhere, dumping Biden now would be seen as a sign of panic. In addition it would raise further questions about Obama’s judgment.
As for Warner, I know Repubs including those at BD are enthralled with the man but I don’t think he makes a very compelling presence to people living outside of the fumes.
Thing is, is Warner hankering for a spot on superCONgress? In order to guess that, one would have to know how is a spot on the superCONgress viewed in DC? Is it a chance for fame and power, an unwanted no-win hot seat, or a political kiss of death?
Looking back, what I see is a long struggle by CONgress to try to use yesterday’s methods to deal with a problem for which there is no painless way out. In fact, all of the paths forward involve either a crapload of pain, the willing cession of economic / regulatory / tax power by CONgress, or more likely both.
If CONgress is beginning to perceive that as the truth, then a super spot is a political kiss of death and the only people who’ll be willing to do it are the ones who don’t care about reelection, and that sure as hell ain’t Warner.
Maybe you should start a poll on who will get super spots?
I am going to have a flag made that reads “No Taxation Without Representation.” A large number of people that will surprise you, but not me, will understand.
The future:
- “muddle along” continues to crack
- Obama spends all of the free $2.1 Trillion reelection fund handed to him by the repubs before November 2012. The money will be used to reinforce people’s belief in free stuff. If you’ve ever watched a belief system collapse, there is a loss of faith immediately followed by an irrationally stronger, reinvogorated belief in the paradigm, reinforced by what is essentially the anger phase of loss. If you want to see what this looks like on a person’s face, turn on Chris Matthews / Hardball. He is so pissed off that spittle frequently flows from his mouth.
- The repubs will nominate some retread who similarly doesn’t know shit about economics and who similarly believes that “continuity of government” is more important than anything so silly as “representative government” or “liberty,” setting the stage for the endgame.
- the USDX will continue to strengthen short term relative to the Euro, the Yen, and Sterling, but only because our fiat doesn’t suck as bad as their fiat. The Treasury market will feel the love.
- The fact that there is no “recovery” becomes more apparent with each passing day, as even the stupidest market participant realizes that the stock market was simply levitating on free Federal Reserve QE cash.
- Push comes to shove; the Fed steps in for what will turn out to be the final time, and prints USD right into oblivion.
- The markets cry “No Mas!” Capital runs home to momma, but this time “momma” isn’t Treasuries, it’s precious metals and CHF.
- The buying power of USD collapses. Checques keep going out, but they don’t buy anything anymore. The dependency classes begin to riot. Cell phone minutes are no longer a civil right.
- Whatever turd is in the WH declares martial law.
- Fear reigns, liberty dies to thunderous applause.
Remember: the life expectancy of a fiat currency is about 80 years. They NEVER last, they ALWAYS die, and always from hubris. The only question worth asking is: what happens then?
Nice. Jamie just described in entertaining detail the “Who wants to be a millionaire” path forward. Everyone will end up being a millionaire, which is good, because it’ll cost you a half a million for a snickers candy bar.
I guess that just like those who love a good book, and turn to summer reading that entertains instead of informs, Bearing Drift has now given itself over to those who enjoy writing fiction. I have no trouble reminding myself that just because a contributor to BD writes it, it does not make it so. I am still both optimistic, and naive enough to think that Mark Warner, as one of the few businessmen in the Senate, would make an ideal member of the super committee, and one who would keep his eye on what is best for the nation. The proposal from the gang of six, in concert with the Bowles-Simpson report and the Alice Rivlin one as well, all point toward what is required and what should be done. Warner has the credibility to help make that happen; the question is, does Congress?
I think Val had this right. Virginia is NOT a must win state for the Dems in 2012. It’s a must win state for the Republicans. If it’s even close here in 2012, then Obama is probably winning nationwide.
Mike, Warner has about as much “credibility” as your comments on this blog.
Hey Mike,
Didn’t you tell us that we’d all lose our shirts if Congress FAILED to pass the debt ceiling raise? Have you looked at your accounts since the deal was inked?
How soon do you start demanding the Fed step in, and screaming that their reticence to do so is the fault of the Tea Party?
Well yes, had no deal been made, however bad the deal is, and default had occured immediately which was predicted, then the current state of my and others personal assets would have been half of the current level. So the current market correction is worrisome, but pales by comparison to what the situation would have been if we had defaulted and no deal been reached to raise the debt ceiling. Of course Jamie, I know you know that, but you simply could not resist a poke in the eye. No problem.
Seven types of troll: a spotter’s guide
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100099194/seven-types-of-troll-a-spotters-guide/
I know no such thing. The markets just might be reacting to the fact that we DID raise the debt ceiling, indicating clearly to all that we have no intention of behaving like adults and living within our means. We have also indicated to the markets our clear intention to continue the capitalism-befuddling interventions, the use of taxpayer funds by the government to pick winners and losers, the still-temporary but continued use of taxpayer funds to maintain asset prices at false levels, and, perhaps most destructive of all, OUR WILLINGNESS TO CONTINUE DEFICIT SPENDING, DRAINING THE CAPITAL MARKETS OF REAL CAPITAL FOR OUR USE IN MAINTAINING OUR UNSUSTAINABLY HIGH LIFESTYLES OF THE RICH AND SHAMELESS, SOMETHING YOU HAVE OPENLY ADVOCATED HERE.
Mike, your policies of supporting consumption over production guarantee that the productivity of debt will remain negative. Capital is going into hiding; time for more capital controls, Mike?
Do you guys remember Lehman Brothers?
Well Jamie, you may be correct on how the market reacted, but of course, many have lost their reputation and their money predicting why the market acted as it did. I would hazard acaused the markets to adjust to the prospect that recovery will be a slower process than before, and that there is little to motivate investment. Most analysts seem to believe the spectacle of the last two months have revealed the stalemate in the political system that is hurting investment and recovery. Who really knows? It all seems to parellel the success of recovery from the depression, the ring wing revolt against spending, then cutbacks, and then recession until WW II. I sure hope not.
“recovery will be a slower process than before”… How about non-existent? There is no “recovery”, there never has been and there never will be as long as you leftists are in denial about what an economy is and what it is supposed to do.
I now see that Democrats are starting to run away from the President as his economic “Arab Spring” moves into full swing with the big kickoff party in Chicago last night. And who will be the politicians and their enablers who will end up on trial in cages in front of Congress for “high crimes and misdemeanors” against our Constitution and the people of the United States?
Mike,
“…the current state of my and others personal assets would have been half of the current level.”
Don’t do the right thing for the nation, instead appeal to short-term financial self interest to justify the attempt at blowing yet another bubble and maintaining the status quo, doing so with money stolen from the future of the producing class.
Greed wears a donkey suit; this is known widely as “limousine liberalism.”
Well Jamie, you are one of the few that seems to think default would have been in our nation’s interest. The very threat of it will lead to significant pain and disruption for millions of Americans. It is bad enough as it is.
So uh.. Mike.. is incompetent leadership better for this country? Is incompetent government capable of acting in our countrys best interests? We will continue to eat shit while Congress eats cake and Obama tosses back champagne. Bottoms up Mike.
There never was a genuine threat of default. Anyone who says there was is a liar. Default was just a talking point, a word used to scare voters. It’s a tired old lie, Mike. How can you expect anyone to take you seriously when you keep repeating lies that have already been exposed?
Creditors would have been paid, and the budget would have been balanced.
JJ, I appreciate all the lessons you deliver on this site and elsewhere, I always learn something. But here I am going to disagree.
There WAS a genuine threat of default because it was, at the core of it, a THREAT. This administration has used every opportunity to push its agenda, and not raising the debt ceiling would have been no less an opportunity to seize more control under the guise that the world would end without the administration stepping in to save us from ourselves. Or to realistically not pay people who otherwise could be paid.
We would have never gotten to the point of realization that default wasn’t Armageddon. We would have been “saved” from that – by Obama raising the ceiling unilaterally if necessary.
We are in times where rational thinking doesn’t carry as much weight. Even brilliant guys like you can’t predict logical conclusions because the assumptions – that everyone wants things to “work out” – aren’t necessarily true any more. That’s the long and short of it.
Sara,
Thanks for reading my rants. I have to disagree. The Treasury leaked a plan pre-deal that outlined how they would have prioritized payments. Of course, they would have paid holders of Treasury debt first. In the world of sovereign finance, the word “default” means holders of sovereign debt don’t get paid. In this perhaps purely technical sense, there would have been no default. Would some people not have gotten their checks? You bet. Is that default? No way.
I for one was willing to risk Obama unilaterally raising the debt ceiling. Frankly, I think even he isn’t stupid enough to do that. Such a move would have woken up even the sleepiest of patriots. If not, we really are doomed.
Our failure to demand, and enforce our demand for rational thinking is how we got here. I am not Mike; I cannot offer nonsensical wishful thinking, skittles-crapping unicorns (props to Denninger), or dogmatic talking points as a solution to anything.
I am not brilliant, just a student of history. By giving Obama the money he wanted, he can now afford to bribe the masses to re-elect him so that he can continue the destruction of what’s left of the free market. The crisis has been postponed again, and by raising more debt we guarantee our fall will be from a greater height. IMO our ultimate fall is guaranteed.
The fact that we have to borrow 40% of what we spend, and have been doing so for 3 years in a row, makes it impossible for any rational person to honestly continue to assert that we’re not broke. Spending must be slashed, on everything. It is going to be slashed, the only question is whether we have any say in it or not. We can’t afford to keep up what we’re doing. We have to stop. Why wait? What are we waiting for? A miracle?
Not only did Obama get what he wanted, but now we are to have an appointed board of super congresscritters who will decide for us our future. How does that help anything?
It would have been default in the sense that breach of contract is technically “default”, but to most non-lawyers default means not paying loan service. The way the word default has been used recently just about anything could be considered default, i.e. calling the electric company and telling them to turn off your electricity would be “default”.
Well Jamie, to accept your rant, ie that there never was a threat of default, is to deny what congressman said, how they acted, and what they believed and pledged. While cooler heads finally prevailed, the threat of action to cause default was real, and it had real effects. The climate of fear, of derision, of disrespect, and of hyper partisanship has put our nation and our international allies, in a state of great discomfort. The sight of elected members of Congress acting like spoiled brats does not engender confidence in the Legislative body of the greatest nation in the world. You can focus all you want on the money supply, or fed policy, or your own rendition of the proper fiscal policies, but in fact, we act in groups, institutions, and as nations, and the actions of the far right, displayed to the world, was a most disturbing sight to behold and has done actual damage to our standing in the world.
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