New Virginia poll shows interesting views of McDonnell, Bolling and Cuccinelli
By JR Hoeft | Wednesday, June 29th, 2011 | Politics
55 percent of Virginians approve of the job that Governor Bob McDonnell is doing, says a Quinnipiac poll released today. This is a job approval that bests his Republican colleague Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey – and likely further solidifies himself as someone who might be on the national Republican ticket in 2012.
When you couple today’s numbers with McDonnell’s trip to see the Koch brothers in Colorado (along with Texas Gov. Rick Perry), his national position with the Republican Governors Association (he’s vice chairman; Perry is chairman), Virginia being the top-ranked state for business (Texas is second), and his ability to balance the budget without raising taxes, it certainly looks good now for McDonnell to be considered for vice president.
And, McDonnell’s popularity transcends to Democrats too.
“Even among Democrats he is within 10 points of parity, an unusually high level of support for a governor from the opposition party,” said Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute to the Roanoke Times.
But there are other interesting things going on in this poll too.
For example, Virginians have what seems to be a very clear opinion of Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli: You either like him or you don’t.
He has a 49 percent approval rating, yet he also holds an unfavorable rating of 31 percent. However, that still is a very good margin for the AG.
Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling, on the other hand, has a job approval ratio of 2:1, but only 59 percent of Virginians have an opinion of him. 39 percent approve and 20 percent disapprove of how he’s handling the job; however, this means 41 percent of Virginians don’t even register a thought about his job performance.
With Bolling preparing to run for governor in 2013, these numbers present the opportunity for him to define himself to Virginia voters. But the danger he faces is Virginians asking the question, “What did you do for eight years?”
With the speculation now being open that U.S. Senator Mark Warner wants his old job back in 2013, Bolling will have to define the narrative of how he did a better job for the Virginia economy and job creation, among other matters, than when Warner was governor.
As long as we’re speculating, there are also rumors that given Cuccinelli’s visibility that potentially he’d run for governor in 2013. I don’t discount that, but if Warner runs for governor, and if Cuccinelli decides not to seek another term at Attorney General – the office that’s giving him the national spotlight – I feel he will run for U.S. Senate in 2014.
With Warner entering the picture for 2013, this means Terry McAuliffe may not want to challenge the former governor who left with a near 70 percent popularity for the Democratic nomination. This means, in 2014, we could possibly see a McAuliffe v. Cuccinelli battle for U.S. Senate.
So how would the GOP field shake out in 2013? The most likely scenario is:
Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling – Governor
Prince William Supervisor Corey Stewart – Lieutenant Governor
State Sen. Mark Obenshain – Attorney General
Then again, this is all idle speculation from a very interesting poll.
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Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
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15 Responses to "New Virginia poll shows interesting views of McDonnell, Bolling and Cuccinelli"
Very interesting idle speculation.
Would like to see how the election goes in 4 months.
If things go real well, then speculation about President McDonnell might be fun.
Perhaps Governor McDonnell might invite Governor Perry to to chat with Virginia lawmakers about how to create small business growth.
It is amazing how similar the two of them are.
I would prefer to keep Cuccinelli in the state for 4 more years as Governor. I honestly don’t think Bolling could beat Warner if he decided to run again, and apparently the polling bears that out. If Perry gets in the race, it’s his to lose. McDonnell would be an awesome VP, and Pres. 8 years later. Bolling could replace Warner in the Senate.
Halfway through a miserable term as Senator, VA voters say that he is doing a great job according to Public Policy poll even though the Senate as a whole was poorly rated(Dec 2010 Mark Warner (D-VA)54/32 +22.) The Repubs apparently agree that he is not connected to the poorly rated Senate since I have heard nothing particularly critical from them since he disappeared into DC in 2009. Oops more gloom and doom.
On a separate note Warner was elected in 2008. His term runs to 2014. The VA governor race is 2013. If the courts don’t allow him to serve in two positions concurrently (you never know these days) wouldn’t Warner have to resign in early 2013 at the latest to run for Gov? wouldn’t that mean a special election?
valentinus – Warner would not need to resign from the Senate in order to run for governor. He would only have to resign if he won, in which case (I think) he would get to appoint his successor until the 2014 election.
Thanks Ken for the unintended funny thought. Warner is elected Governor in 2013 and appoints Ken Cuccinelli to the US Senate. I’m still laughing at that one.
Brandon- Sorry if I wasn’t clear. I meant to say that as governor Warner would get to fill the Senate vacancy. My best guess is that a deal would be cut in advance with McAuliffe that he would get appointed to the Senate in exchange for not challenging Warner for the Dem nomination for governor.
And people were laughing at me for calling the Dems an effective machine (not meaning their policies). This would be good strategic thinking on their part. If they can flip or hold one branch of the legislature as well they are off o the races again with the exact same mob that supposedly was trounced. Can’t be copied or countered by the Repubs. Warner is above criticism. Wouldn’t be right.
That appoint your succesor thing might be tricky to pull off.
You’d essentially have to resign your senator seat right before you took the oath of office as governor. Because if you resigned even one day early that would give McDonnell the opportunity to fill the vacancy.
The issue of can a senator elected governor appoint his successor was a hot issue once before- in 1993. John Warner was strongly considering running for Governor, with George Allen for AG actually. That Warner wanted to do just what this Warner might, but turned out he couldn’t legally do so. John Warner didn’t want Doug Wilder appointing the senator, so that plus many other reasons led him not to run for Governor. The rest is history.
I have to give the Governor an A+ for public relations and a D for leading the Commonwealth. Admittedly, he has Governed during a difficult time, but to me, he has taken the easy way out by borrowing for VRS and for transportation, by pushing cuts down to locally elected officials who have had to take the fall, and by touting new initiatives which get all the attention while he undermines the very functions the he says he is improving. Most people think he has helped improve education while in fact he has simply caused tuition to go through the roof. But he is so glib and fast that no new person has the ability to really take him on and point out the actual impacts of his actions. That said, he may he done the best he could with the House (lack of) leadership he has inherited, but he helped create that himself.
Mike, If I thought you really believed your own bullshit your comments would not be so funny. Yeay we were ranked #1 or 2 while Kaine was also gov but times were not as tight and a lot of services were cut off. Aw shucks, we didnt even hade roadside rest stops open.. See the difference Mikey?
Turbo: Time’s were not as tight when Kaines was governor? Then why did he cut about $7 billion out of the state budget during his term? In fact, the worst of the national recession hit while Kaine was in. By Jan. 2010, when McDonnell was sworn in, the recession was technically over, which didn’t mean the economy was peachy or anything but it was headed in a better direction.
Turbo mentions rest stops, and this is a classic example of responsible vs irresponsible actions. Yes, Kaine closed some stops to retain more money for repair and maintenance. McDonnell makes a bold publicity move, reopens the rest stops, but does nothing to change the fiscal situation. Then he borrows $3 B to build more projects at a time when we don’t have the money to maintain nor repair what we have. Now, was that popular? You bet. Was it responsible? Absolutely not. His successor will need to deal with his irresponsibility.
Mike, if we do not improve roads, new business will find places with better roads.. simple huh.. Navy needs better roads too Mike. No improvement means no consolidation favoring our region. Our Navy personnell and operations depend on our roads in a huge way.. If McD did not address this we would face more downsized bases. Better roads = happy commands.. Unhappy high brass due to poor roads = less business for Runnymede.
Yes James, no disagreement about the need for transportation infrastructure. The problem is paying for it. Borrowing $3 B to build more, without acknowledging the unfunded $9 B deficit in repair and maintenance of roads, bridges, and tunnels, just compounds the problem. The responsible action would be to raise revenue to adequately fund maintenance, repair, and construction, not borrow more which just adds to the problem. Further, transferring funds from the general fund to transaportation just robs public safety, courts and justice, human services, and education.
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