UK Economist: Online Data As Economic Indicators?
By Shaun Kenney | Tuesday, June 14th, 2011 | Catch-AllIf it’s good enough for the Bank of England, it’s good enough for the rest of us plebes, right?
Google Trends as economic indicator? Why not?
On the face of it, using data extracted from Google Trends offers two advantages over traditional data. First, it is available in real time, rather than the middle of the month following the measurement period (at best). Second, real-time data make for higher frequency estimates.
The former clearly represents an improvement. The benefit of the latter is less obvious. Data aren’t knowledge; increasing the frequency of estimates could lead central bankers to focus more closely on variations that aren’t meaningful. As an observation period shrinks, it becomes increasingly difficult to get the proper perspective on longer-term trends and, particularly, on reversals in these trends.
Naturally, I couldn’t help but try to apply this to politics…
What lines are we seeing here? The light blue are references to “Tea Party” while the dark blue represents references to “Republican” — red to conservative, yellow to liberal, and green to Democrat.
Notice a trend in 2011?
Compare this to previous years… 2010 as the Tea Party’s high water mark:
…and 2009 as things were just getting started:
Now I’m not how terribly useful this is… but given Rasmussen’s latest poll showing that 57% of all Americans would rather identify themselves as “good citizens” rather than the 27% who would rather identify themselves as “patriots” — and that nosedive starting in January on the Tea Party approximates ground truth.
Again — look at the light blue trend lines… Morton Blackwell’s old adage that the purity of one’s ideas will not deliver victory holds absolute and true at all times. Solutions, not spectacle… and it would appear as if the American people are getting tired of waiting for those solutions.
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About the author
Shaun Kenney is the Chairman of the Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors, former Communications Director for the Republican Party of Virginia, and an active blogger since 2002. Shaun lives in Thomas Jefferson's backyard with his wife, six children, and a modest attempt at a farm in Kents Store, Virginia.
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3 Responses to "UK Economist: Online Data As Economic Indicators?"
“Jaaayzuz, Mahree, and Jyoseph!” This one definitely requires confession (for breaking the 9th). The Rasmussen poll found:
In terms of being a good citizen, two-thirds (66%) of all voters say it’s more important to do volunteer work for church and community organizations than it is to get involved in politics and political campaigns. Only 18% feel that it’s more important to get involved in politics. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.
These findings are unchanged from surveys since June 2009.
GOP voters tend to think being a good citizen and being a patriot are one and the same. Democrats and unaffiliated voters tend to see a difference between the two.
Most voters hold politicians in pretty low esteem and view many of their elected representatives as corrupt. In a November 2009 survey, just 17% of voters wanted their child to grow up to be a politician.
If you want to bash the Tea Party, well … your blog, your rules. But could you at least be slightly less crooked about it? “Ground truth”? Ha!
Yep, Jay. This place likes to take shots at the Tea Party. Conversely, George Allen and the establishment are beloved. Sure, the want to criticize others for making “purity” demands and asking that the rule of law and the constitution be followed. Hardly a narrow framework a lot of freedom to think and say as you please. The establishment types are the ones demanding blind loyalty and purity to their preferred scope. Sure, you can join their group, but if you disagree with anything and have nerve to say or do something, they’ll let you know that you need to sit down and shut up.
Say the Tea Party is over long enough and it becomes true?
@JayZ –
From the same release:
Reading comprehension 101. You sir, get an F.
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