Convention likely to benefit Frederick in 36th District
By JR Hoeft | Wednesday, May 25th, 2011 | Catch-All, PoliticsThe 36th Senate District Republican committee, which consists of representatives from Prince William, Fairfax, and Stafford, will be meeting this week to determine whether to have a primary or a convention in the district. Because Prince William automatically gets 52% of the weighted vote, Fairfax and Stafford might as well not even show up because it’s a fait accompli.
It’s also highly likely that the Prince William legislative rep, Paul Ruecker, who has donated more than $1,500 to Jeff Frederick, will likely support the wishes of Frederick in this decision.
If that is the case, it’s highly likely that Frederick will choose a convention over primary, given Frederick’s past success with conventions.
Neither Frederick nor his likely opponent, Tito Munoz, have yet declared, but both are highly likely to jump in.
Anthony Bedell, the GOP chairman from Fairfax, favors a primary.
“Although I am not endorsing any candidates in any of our contested nominations… I am pushing for primaries as our nomination method throughout Fairfax County,” said Bedell. “This year with the late nominating process, new districts, and changed precincts, it is important for each candidate to have a district-wide grassroots operation in place ready to go on August 24th. This is important because with so many challenger candidates facing well-funded incumbents that they need to be a well-oiled machine immediately after they win the nomination. A primary also helps raise name ID within these new districts, which is important.”
Additional arguments for the primary have been made because it’s less costly, more democratic, and ensures military personnel overseas can vote absentee.
“In other cycles I would be open to other nomination types, but this year is so unusual we need to think outside the box to make sure our nominees are ready to win on November 8th,” Bedell concluded.
The question is, what will Ruecker decide?
Tags:
Contribute for Conservatism!
Share this post
About the author
Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
Comments
27 Responses to "Convention likely to benefit Frederick in 36th District"
Interesting evaluation. Since Mr. Ruecker is a Republican who presumably lives in the district served by Mr. Frederick – the fact that Mr. Ruecker contributed to his Delegate’s campaign is neither sinister or unusual.
To imply that Mr. Ruecker can’t make a good decision simply because he has contributed to Mr. Frederick in the past is a bizarre leap “logic” and a gross disservice to Ruecker.
Is someone trying to manipulate the outcome? Defy the will of the voters, who in this case are the “party faithful”? We reject “string pulling”, back room deal making, if that’s what is really going on here.
What we all want & need is a fair, open process, which is what works best for we the people as a whole. Having a Frederick supporter deciding the outcome of primary vs convention looks like someone is stacking the deck for the old, political insider against the apparent new comer. STOP!
The answer is obvious – PRIMARY! Let all of us decide on our candidate, especially those of our armed forces who can’t come to a convention.
Given that Frederick was the only Republican to carry the 52nd HOD district in 2005 (McDonnell, Bolling, and Kilgore all lost it) and then won it with 57% of the vote in 2007 (a terrible year for Republicans locally), I’m not sure he would lose a primary – although a convention might be easier for him.
The point is, J-Fred is not just some retread insider looking to restart his career. He is a proven vote getter who has repeatedly outperformed the party in his elections and has more crossover appeal than he’s given credit for.
[...] Convention likely to benefit Frederick in 36th District Chuck Colgan To Retire Missionary says he’s not guilty in women’s custody dispute Kaine won’t say how he would’ve voted on Obama budget [...]
@Common Sense – I don’t think I called Mr. Ruecker’s support for Frederick neither “sinister” nor “unusual.” It seems you made that leap.
I’m reporting that one person is going to decide the outcome of whether there will be a primary or convention and that person’s relationship to one of the candidates.
My conclusion is that Frederick, should he choose to run, probably prefers conventions given his success with them, so I would not be surprised to see Ruecker vote that way, despite objections from other Republicans in the district.
That conclusion is hardly “bizarre” or a “gross disservice”…it’s a political observation.
What success has Frederick had with conventions? Outside of winning RPV chair at a convention he’s never been in a convention.
If you were to say he had success at conventions, it’d be just as accurate to say he has had success in primary, given he beat an incumbent in a primary in his first election.
A state-wide RPV convention is a completely different animal from a local state senate nominating convention. The only other convention I know that Frederick was involved in was the 1st Congressional District convention in 2007. He endorsed and spoke on behalf of Jost. You can see how well that worked out.
I don’t think a convention would benefit Frederick anymore than it would Munoz. In fact Frederick would probably be able to speak to and get out to vote more traditional Republican primary voters then Munoz would.
A convention would benefit Tito by the thinnest of margins. Frederick has never had to perform in a convention, though I wonder whether Frederick really would be better served in a primary contest… he’s won elections that way, he knows he’ll perform well. This is Tito’s first rodeo too…
Uphill charge for Tito in a primary. It’s really a confidence question for J-Fred at the end of the day. If he’s confident of his fundraising and support, he’ll go primary and raise the cost of participation. If he’s not confident, or if he thinks he’ll need the money to take on Puller, we’ll get a convention.
Gotta love the chess.
First of all, to be truly fair and balanced in the election of the candidate to run, a primary is the only way to go. Given the fact that Frederick was outsted by the RPV a couple of years ago, on top of some of his outrageous comments comparing President Obama with Osama bin Laden, somehow I don’t get a warm and fuzzy that anyone other than his close friends would vote for him. Not independents or tea party supporters that are looking precisely for fresh and new leadership, not party-machine selected candidates. In order to unseat the Democratic incumbent, we need to have a candidate that can beat her, and that is not Jeff Frederick! I call for a primary, otherwise this move is nothing else than another example of corrupt political maneuvers that will turn off the electorate.
Read here the Democrats take on Jeff, I can see Puller’s campaign slogan already…
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2009_02/016879.php
We need a primary rather than a convention. It appears a bit obvious that the connection between Ruecker & Fredrick is geared to manipulate their way into a convention that would benefit them which would not give Munoz a fair chance. Let the people, you & me, chose! People who are out of state or in our service will at least be able to have their vote count. If we ever want change to happen it is up to us to make it so. With all the new changes in the districts & precincts we are under enough challenges already.
“Frederick has never had to perform in a convention” – Shaun Kenney
Um… 2008?
Mr. Hoeft – Methinks the man doth protest too much . . . with apologies to Shakespeare.
Let’s analyze the facts: the choice of a convention over a primary by a personal friend and supporter of the candidate who will be favored as the chosen one in a convention, who is also an ex-party official ousted on allegations that somehow conviced the party to remove him because he would not step down? Are you serious? Why not just throw the election away! The Republican party better get real about the candidates they are vetting to run, or they will not win this or any other local election for that matter!
Guys, I think we are overanalyzing. In many legislative districts across the state, single people have the power to decide the process for nomination. No matter which process is formed, Jeff will be the favorite to win the nomination just because he was the delegate for almost half of the district before. He is the only one running who has won an election, and the last election he won was in 2007 which was a bad Republican year. He knows that district, and he knows how to campaign.
@FFVol –
2008 was Marshall’s convention. ‘Nuff said.
@Willie: you have just confirmed the fact that he is the party machine candidate that feels entitled to the job and that is that, forget about what the voters have to say. If that is what the Republicans have to offer, don’t be surprised when Toddy Puller remains the State Senator for the 36th!
Whether the former delegate has ever prevailed in a convention is beside the point.
Tho Frederick has high negatives amongst republicans, he probably has an ability to “pack” a convention, while a newcomer is still getting organized.
Let’s don’t go there. Even the appearance of party boss manipulation will be damaging.
I’ll make my point again – Let we the people decide in a primary & include those who must be out of state & can’t attend a convention, like members of US military.
Guys do you really think Frederick is the party favorite? Many of the forces that worked hard to remove him as party chairman will probably line up behind Tito in the coming weeks to try to stop Jeff from winning the nomination and making a political comeback.
It should be noted that Paul Ruecker was appointed by me after the Democrats reched out and split a precinct to draw my previous appointee out of the district by about 150 yards. Paul Ruecker is a good man who has served as LD chair off and on for a decade. He also serves at MY pleasure and nobody else’s.
I given money to Jeff and Tito before and drove to MD to be on Tito’s radio show. I would be glad to support either as the nominee against Puller.
Primary Pros
Requires more precinct level org (like general)
Casts the widest net of GOP voters
Better media coverage
Convention Pros
Can be held before Aug 23 to give more time to campaign against Puller.
Much cheaper for the candidates (usually)
Builds volunteer base faster (in general)
Less public mudslinging
Either process is fair
Mr. Veefelt: your response is filled with anger, and the statement that you make when you say he serves at your pleasure is indicative of the fact that you are completely discounting the opinion of our chairman in Fairfax. May I remind you that while apparently you will get to decide the method to be used, by discounting the Fairfax county leadership and it’s voters, you are making a big mistake. We want a primary and not a convention. All candidates in Fairfax will be decided via primaries, because we believe that gives everyone a chance to vote and a voice to express their desired candidate. Isn’t that what you are looking for? It should be.
Wow! It appears someone pushed a hot button for Mr. Beefelt! “he serves at MY pleasure” sounds like party boss pulling the strings for the desired outcome to me! A complete fait a complis, without doubt. This is the reason why people become disgusted with the political process.
The mere perception of favorability for one candidate over the other shoudl compel Mr. Beefelt to favor a primary. Let’s not forget that conventions require voters to pay a fee to be able to vote, and happen for a very short period of time, a few hours at best, precluding people that cannot attend and/or pay the fee from voting for their candidate of choice. It also disenfranchises absentee voters such as seniors, the ill and our deployed military. With Memorial Day weekend coming up, the thought of making a decision that will exclude our brave men and women serving this country from the voting process is quite apalling.
Guys, the comment “he serves at my pleasure” seemed to be made in response to the accusations that the legislative chairman was in the pocket of Jeff Frederick. I think we need to stop overanalyzing this and let the process play out.
Willie, I think we need a transparent & above board process that disenfranchises no one, but is inclusive to all qualified voters and any prospective candidate that wants to fairly compete for our support.
I’m not sure why you are so afraid of analysis.
No one is afraid of analysis – we object to distortion and innuendo.
The alarmists would benefit from a trip to the Virginia Board of Elections site and the Republican Party Plan (the document that lays out how these decisions will be made).
The primary, caucus, or convention is specifically to select the person who gets the “R” beside their name on the ballot – nothing else. If a group of Republicans get together to make that happen in Firehouses or a High School gymnasium that is entirely legal and proper. Indeed it will be happening all over the Commonwealth as people like Mr. Beefelt are charged with making that happen by the Commonwealth through the Party.
Charges of “disenfranchisement” or “unfairness” are utterly baseless. While a primary may be wise to test the broader power of any candidate – a primary is not required. Remember – we are selecting the person to wear the “R” – it defies reason that we need Democrats or Independents to help do that. If you are that concerned about being part of the decision making process – join the Party – we would love to have you.
The funny thing is that if either candidate were asked they would probably say “I don’t care – just bring it on.”
It is a primary.
Thanks for the good news! Access for all to vote and voice their desired candidate has prevailed. This iss worthy of celebration on memorial day weekend!
Leave your response
The comments section is for meaningful discussion. Readers are reminded to post comments that are germane to the article and write in a common language that steers clear of personal attacks and/or vulgarities.
Please take a moment to review our comment policy.