UPDATE: Looks Like Allen Can Win After All
By Ken Falkenstein | Sunday, May 8th, 2011 | PoliticsFor many Virginia Republicans, including myself, who fear that George Allen has damaged himself too much to be able to defeat Tim Kaine for the open Senate seat currently held by Jim Webb
, a new poll released today is cause for some sighs of relief. According to a new Washington Post poll, Allen and Kain are currently tied at 46% each.
This result is good news for Allen because the campaign hasn’t begun in earnest. Allen’s mostly conservative record is well known to most voters. What wasn’t known was whether he would still be hampered by his idiotic “macaca” comment that cost him the 2006 election. His early 46% support number against an established and currently popular Democrat opponent shows that Allen apparently is a viable contender in the current election.
The poll is bad news for Kaine because he is currently at what is likely to be the height of his popularity. Kaine has a far-left record as Governor of Virginia, Chairman of the Democrat National Committee, and reliable foot soldier, propagandist, and apologist for Barack Obama, that will drive his numbers down as it becomes better known. In addition, 2012 is shaping up to be generally favorable to Republicans as voters look to replace President Obama and his allies.
So, an even playing field in this early stage of the race means that Allen will likely gain the upper hand over time, which is good news for those of us who questioned his current political viability.
UPDATE: The best evidence that Democrats like Not Larry Sabato agree with my analysis and are worried is that they are publicly trying to dismiss this poll as “meaningless” because it is “so early.” If the poll showed Kaine with a lead, would they be so dismissive?
Also, for more on the data and cross-tabs, please check-out D.J. Spiker’s analysis
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About the author
Ken Falkenstein has been a staffer in the United States Senate and the Virginia House of Delegates. He has managed political campaigns. He was a military intelligence analyst in the U.S. Army in West Germany during the Cold War. He is currently the Vice President of the Down Syndrome Association of Hampton Roads and practices as a civil litigation attorney with the law firm of Poole Mahoney PC in Virginia Beach. His concern for his kids' future is what most informs his writing.
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5 Responses to "UPDATE: Looks Like Allen Can Win After All"
To be clear the negative assessments on Allen’s chances previously posted in BD were based on Webb as the opponent. Rematches favor the incumbent even in an adverse year. I believe the consensus was that Allen had a better than 50-50 chance against some other Dem given the reasons you express. Nevertheless he does have baggage and it probably will be fairly close.
@valentinus – Although some of my colleagues have posted about Allen’s viability against Webb, I just recently joined Bearing Drift, and my fears about Allen’s viability were not specific to taking on Webb. My fears were based on Allen’s “macaca” comment and whether he has, or will ever be able to, regain the confidence of Virginia voters. Racial insensitivity is the new third rail of politics, and once a candidate hits that rail, it is hard to recover from it. The WaPo poll indicates that the voters are willing to look at Allen’s current campaign with an open mind, but this is just one poll, and we will need several more with consistent results to know for sure that voters are willing to give Allen a new look. Nevertheless, this poll makes it easier for Republicans to embrace Allen as our presumptive nominee and is already giving the Democrats some heartburn.
“Nevertheless, this poll makes it easier for Republicans to embrace Allen as our presumptive nominee and is already giving the Democrats some heartburn.” I call your bluff. I bet dems know a golden opportunity when they see one. Will have to wonder if the DNC is putting out positive spin for Allen to boost his poll numbers.
Turbo,
If the DNC was really smart they wouldn’t be putting up Kaine as their nominee. Allen is the presumptive nominee whether the WAPO does agitprop or not. I agree it would have been better if a plausible fresh face had been available for the Repubs.
Interesting spin. Why would anyone not have expected Allen and Kaine to be virtually tied at this point? That will be a tought, tight race. Unless Allen implodes again. And I don’t think anyone is expecting that.
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