Did Obama just win 2012?
By Brian Kirwin | Tuesday, May 3rd, 2011 | PoliticsMost Presidents elected once get elected twice if they want to be.
That’s simply a fact of history. George H. W. Bush. Jimmy Carter. Herbert Hoover. William Howard Taft. In the past 100 years, they are the only ones who lost General re-elections after being elected President.
They have a few things in common. Primary challengers. Down economies for most of them.
Meanwhile, Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Nixon, Eisenhower – two terms, and electoral counts stronger the second time.
Now, anyone who thinks military victories guarantee re-elections have a whole host of reasons to feel stupid. Voters have pretty short memories for wins and pretty long memories for losses.
But one has to hand Obama kudos for bin Laden’s demise.
If Obama gets a clear nomination path, which he appears to be assured, a growing economy may be all he needs to ice his re-election. No President in over 100 years has lost re-election in similar circumstances.
Now, the economic outlook is by no means secure. Obama’s health care law has yet to kick in. Obama has only talked about raising taxes, and not actually done it, and with the House in Republican hands, I can’t see how he can. Energy costs look like it could squeeze the economy back to a recession with little nudging, but they already have leaped in the past year, and America’s handling it ok so far.
Hey, at least we know most two-term Presidents are followed by a President of an opposite Party. That’s 2016. As far as 2012, any overconfident Republicans should think again.
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The right wants to jeer him. The left wants to censor him. Moderates usually want both. Brian Kirwin is a political consultant and public relations strategist in Virginia Beach with a lightning-rod flair. Brian also serves on the VB Arts & Humanities Commission and frequently appears on Hampton Roads theatrical stages, if only to prove that all actors aren’t liberals. Kirwin’s columns stir up debate and hit the political scene with no punches pulled.
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43 Responses to "Did Obama just win 2012?"
While the White House and the MSM may try to spin this as a sure thing for his re-election, you’re right that it’s not going to hinge on just this.
In 1991, at the end of the first Gulf War, George H.W. Bush was in the 90s in approval ratings. I was at the White House when he said “by God, we’ve kicked the Vietnam syndrome.” I turned to a co-worker (a seasoned campaign veteran) and said “there’s no way he’ll lose in 1992.”
My co-worker looked at me and said “18 months is a long time in politics.” He turned out to be right.
Good points BK.. never count your chickens till they hatch. The problem is our debt, even with a limit increase, is overpowering consumers and there is nothing on the horizon to rein in the fed which will arguably do for Obama what it did to McCain in October 09.
Whoever is the gop challenger needs to swing well placed punches and have the stamina to fight standing up. And if the gop challeneger in any way sees the race card as some form of kryptonite then our superman gets creamed hence O wins.
Entirely agree with BK and I hope he’s wrong. 18 months is a long time. The Chicago machine is put together better than Carter and Bush I. The MSM will spin the figures as fitting for Obama’s reelection.
I believe Trump is a distraction seeing that no conservative could survive in Hollywood. I wonder if Trump’s is in this creepy Ashton Kutcher pledge.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTQawLBC59g&feature=related
I’m just questioning whether this goes as far as Turbo states. As things are starting to appear good and a measely 1.6% gdp growth is considered good, do you think the Fed would manipulate the money to get Obama reelected?
Hate to say it but its looking good for the likes of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Chuck “Don’t Take My Shuttle” Schumer.
While it would have been great for Republicans for bin Laden to pay the piper under Bush’s watch, this is not Obama’s only defining moment.
The biggest question at this point is who is strong enough to put up against Obama? Please don’t say Trump.
Actually, I agree with Michael; it really depends what happens between now and the election. Frankly, if the Parth were to ever turn to Trump, it would not only be the end of their chances in 2012, it could be the end of the Party. He is one of the few who can gives the term real estate developer a really bad name. Lastly, the biggest factor in the President’s favor is Ryan’s initiative which is incredibly divisive, does not get us out of debt, and shows the republican party to be focused on just one thing; protect the rich at any cost. Not a great slogan on which to challenge a competent President.
The data certainly supports BK’s position. What bothers me about the recent re-election discussion is that apparently everyone doesn’t think much of the American voter if just one event/data point can influence so many voters. I would like to think that most voters do some kind of analysis before voting.
The President certainly debunked charges he’s weak on terror. If employment numbers are up and gas prices down as we head into the election – the job is his for another 4. Hopefully, Republicans can hold numbers in Congress so that second term legislation is centrist, rather than left of center.
If you haven’t yet seen clip of Obama on Trump, here’s the link. Pretty funny.
On Trump … whether intentional (or not), kinda funny that not only did Obama roast him at the WH dinner, but Celebrity Apprentice was preempted by all the news coverage. Despite his own opinion of himself, the Donald is NO match for this guy!
I’d agree the economy is the big variable.
I thought the odds were fairly good for Obama being re-elected before we killed Osama. That certainly didn’t hurt. But as Bush 1 learned, memories are short when it comes to foreign policy and military accomplishments.
Obama also benefits from the uncertainty on the GOP side. No one has really stepped forward who looks presidential. I’ve actually seen at least one poll where Obama was losing to “generic Republican,” but fairly easily beating any of the specific Republicans who’ve been talked about as candidates.
Steve said it all:
“No one has really stepped forward who looks presidential.”
Nuff said…
I believe Trump’s a Hollywood hack and his true purpose is to go after the Republican candidates. Going after Obama on these stupid issues gives Trump free-reign on the Republican candidates. No one can say that he didn’t take shots at Obama even though they were stupid. He’s surrounded by liberals and nothing he’s done hurts Obama. He’s going to have open season on the Republicans.
@Jay Z,
When the MSM is misinforming their audience, it doesn’t leave much to the American voter. It’s difficult to decypher the truth from BS, even for the most informed voter.
I actually agree with Mike Barrett, up to the “competent” part.
I never thought Obama was Presidential material. He has surprised me at times in a good way. I hate his socialist policies, however, I liked his handling of the Arizona shooting of Representative Giffords. To find out that four months into his Presidency he ordered a plan to find bin Laden has changed my mind about him on his ability be a military leader.
Make no mistake. While I have grown a certain respect for Obama, as soon as a viable candidate comes forward who has the whole package, my focus will be Obama being a one-term President. His tax and spend socialist policies will kill US and we can’t afford four more years.
The only competent individual who comes to mind that could go mano a mano and wallop Obama without much doubt would be General Petraeus.
Much as Washington insiders revel in foreign policy and international flapdoodles, a President can really only be hurt by foreign policy not helped (unless it’s WW2). This is especially true in a weak or bad economy since people get irritated that a President is spending time on places no one cares about (eg Libya) rather than tending to business at home (pun intended). The only thing this does is temporarily mute criticism of Obama’s foreign policy until something else goes wrong. Moreover, since OBL’s demise has no strategic importance the story begins and ends on one day. A feelgood story only. But let’s celebrate the moment.
Kathy, with Osama dead we are marginally safer than we were before. This kill was justice served but was symbolic in nature.
Congratulations to our President, our military and our intelligence community. Job well done.
For those who question whether Obama deserves credit, if the effort had ended up in disaster due to a dust storm would you have heaped the blame on him? Was Jimmy Carter expected to shoulder the blame for the Iran hostage failure? If President Obama would have had to shoulder the blame, then I do not think it is wrong to give him the credit for a positive outcome.
Now, I am retired Navy and I swell with pride that Navy is who President Obama chose to go with. Go Navy and go Commander In Chief Obama.
Folks,
This talk about who can go toe to toe with Obama is not grounded in history. Was Bill Clinton such an imposing figure? Even with Reagan, a year or more out from the nomination he was just a Republican candidate who was too old, too extreme etc. It’s a referendum on the incumbent. If people are unhappy with the incumbent they will vote for someone else, given minimum acceptability. A better candidate or campaign just increases the margin of victory.
Turbo, I disagree. Bin Laden’s kill let the world and it’s terrorist know that America will find you if you mess with us. And God help you when we do. I know we have much more to do in this war on terrorism. For us to be the ones to meet out poetic justice brings healing to our nation from the scars of 9-11 and our many men and women who haven’t come home in their fight.
I pray for all our men and women still serving our country in keeping us and the world safe. They need all the prayers we can give them.
No.
But he will be unbeatable if we can’t find a credible candidate to run against him. And we don’t have one.
Because OBL was the most wanted, any comms he carried out with operatives risked interception and which would reveal his map coordinates and that forced him to walk on eggshels for his security.. staying alive at large meant ending his command and control. He could ill afford to have telephone or internet connections at his compound in Abbottabad and he depended on a few trusted couriers to maintain comms. Evan as limited as his comms were, all it took was one couriers misstep which was tracked to the compound enabling operation Osama Bin Lead-in-the-head.
The physical killing of Osama will have no operational impact on AQ or the wider radical islamist movement since operationally he was already dead.
Ironically, this is vindication for Dick Cheney and W’s use of rendition.. without it, the Obama admin would not have had the actionable intel needed to carry the ball through the goal post. To be fair, both presidents are due respects for allowing the defense community to do what they do best but O should not be using I where WE is so much more befitting the poeple who made this happen.
I have heard from military people that they credit Bush’s foundation and practices more than Obama in this victory, but Obama didn’t shrink either from his duty.
As Yemen and other areas there are white hot spots for Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations, our work is hardly done. Let’s hope Obama continues to listen to his military leaders and not think we can give up the fight and run home. As close as this week, I heard reports of a bomb found in Coronado, home of BUDS. How stupid is that? And how scary.
Ganking bin Laden is definitely a nice feather in Obama’s cap, but by no means secures him the 2012 election; like someone else rightly pointed out, just ask Bush 41.
Just curious – and I’m asking this as a generally liberal voter who’s genuinely curious – what is the general consensus amongst the GOP electorate as a whole about Donald Trump? I think – and suspect most of you here would agree – that Donald Trump’s sole agenda is Donald Trump. In terms of the GOP voter base, do most of them see him as an annoyance that needs to go away now or a potentially galvanizing force to rally the base, as it were?
The Donald has always been about the Donald but he certainly has made us acutely aware we need a strong candidate to run against Obama and it’s not him.
Will: Well, I’d think his speech in Las Vegas the other day where he dropped a couple of “F bombs” and an “MF bomb” wouldn’t endear him to family values voters.
I hope what the Donald has shown is that the Repubs need to fight like the NRA.
If pursuing the policies of Jimmy Carter times 2 is going to prove so great for Obama, then maybe it’s not too late for Jimmy to demand a recount.
“I hope what the Donald has shown is that the Repubs need to fight like the NRA”
You mean exagerating most things and flat lying about some others?
I think both parties have had that strategy down for years.
SV
Those are tough words to describe the Prez but I can’t argue. The NRA hits back hard but they include relevant facts. You can go back and look up what they did with Bill Clinton when he demagogued gun control and asked for all “new” laws. I’ll give you a hint – they pointed all the existing laws that his own admin had never enforced. That’s all the Repubs need to do but they seem to have enormous difficulty doing it – never let the Left get away with their “misstatements” and slanders. I have no problem with the Dems doing the same but they have gone the McCarthy route.
Val: Uh huh. Isn’t there something in the Bible about the mote in your opponent’s eye and the beam in your own?
“In terms of the GOP voter base, do most of them see him as an annoyance that needs to go away now or a potentially galvanizing force to rally the base, as it were?”
WillHickman, if the operative word is “most” ~ then definitely the former and not the latter.
OMG it’s amazing how many people point to the Bush 41 not being reelected…..why was he not re-elected? Because Ross Perot took 20 Million votes to Bush’s 39 and Clintons 44 Million. Most of the votes would have gone to Bush! So unless there is some thrid party candidate that will pull the independent and Dem votes away from Obama there is no comparison.
John,
Only if those Perot votes were concentrated in states where Bush 41 otherwise would have won the electoral vote. They weren’t and even without Perot, Bush 41 would have most likely lost in 92.
John wins the prize.. correcto. Trump may run as an indy.. I suspect if a good gop candidate emerges that he wants to support and I suspect it is Christie Trump wants to back, then Trump will not run.
HisRoc,
My wife voted for Perot, and had he not been running I am pretty sure she would have swung for Clinton. I myself was leaning towards Perot but he lost my vote when he became paranoid and withdrew mid-campaign prior to getting back in it. What he campaigned on resounded with the public, he was gaining in the polls, and then he cracked.
I still wonder what might have happened had Ross figured out before he threw his hat in the ring that he and his entire family was going to have to deal with the paparazzi. His not figuring that out ahead of time, and my worries that once he became President he might not realize the magnification level would be turned up even further is why I didn’t vote for him.
Voted in that election and remember it well. Bush lost for a number of reasons:
- Perot didn’t help; came in as a deficit hawk (he was TP when TP wasn’t cool!). Bush had to fight off not one, but two contenders.
- Read my lips (broken promise) was used effectively against him.
- Economy was stalled in recession.
- Bush was generally perceived as out-of-touch ~ “It’s the economy, stupid.”
- Bill Clinton (and Carville) ran a brilliant campaign; both had top-notch political instincts.
Others might have the stats, but I’m guessing when the economy is tanking, chances of re-election to 2nd term go down.
Trump is no Ross Perot; he won’t file the paperwork and he won’t run. Period.
I believe Obama will win re-election. The GOP candidates(real or pretenders) are all concerned about a large minority turnout so they are hesitant to put thier name in the hat to oppose Obama. I believe anyone who chooses to oppose Obama is likely to lose and thier political record takes a hit needlessly. That is why I see most real GOP candidates waiting until 2016 to make a real try for the White House. Letting Obama have four more years isn’t all that much it ask considering what a real GOP candidate will be have to raise, spend and endure to oppose him in 2012.
JMO
William, Christie is not the ideal gop candidate and not my first pick but I am betting Trump is numbing up Obama enough for a surprise late entry for Christie who appear may have more crossover appeal than ANY of the current crop of gop candidates. Its the economy stupid and Christie knows how to gel fiscal responsibility with your socialist friends. NJ is a socialist paradise and he won with crossover appeal. If Trumps legacy is to remain intact he cannot either A fail to win or B fail to publicly back a winner.
As for Trump, he is doing this country a huge service by forcing the liberal dominated media to go where the sun has not been shining by luring unlikely eyes and ears to the TV screen who are intrigued by controversy. Trump has made taboo controversy surrounding Obama look sexy and his viewers still want to see more. No other GOP contender could pull that off.. NONE! It’s like roadkill.. you know its gruesome but many of you look anyway.
Trump is an embarrassment to the GOP as well as all Americans. He is a sideshow… With his multiple marriages, bankruptcies and fowl language, he couldn’t win a real election in any state in America. What a ego maniac…
If Christie is the GOP candidate in the end, he’ll be served up nicely as the sacrificial lamb for 2012. Somebody has to do it so it might as well be somebody who is going nowhere outside of their own state.
Turbo, you forget Trump toyed with running at least twice before. His legacy is/will be real estate and entertainment – not politics.
And while Cristie might be getting tons of GOP pressure to run; I’m betting he finishes out his NJ job before taking a stab at the WH.
JayD, If Trump offers to back a Christie run, his campaign will be fully funded before throwing his hat in the ring.
Turbo … a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist.
It’s clear Romney will get the nomination! Forget trump he’s a side show! Picture this Romney Vs Obama in a debate! The winner everyday is Obama, so who will win in 2012, it’s a shoe in
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