Back to the Future: Will Virginia ’12 be the same as ’08 or ’09-’10?
By Steven Osborne | Monday, April 11th, 2011 | PoliticsThe United States Senate race here in Virginia now has declared candidates on both the Democratic and Republican sides of the isle. While the primaries are a prime focus at the moment, with numerous candidates on the Republican side, there have been some rumblings about general election strategy.
There is no question that the 2012 Senate election will likely be eclipsed by the Presidential race which is already looming large over the American political landscape. However, the Presidential race will undoubtedly bring out voters who would normally not participate in a mid-term or off year election.
This seems to be what newly minted Senate candidate Tim Kaine is betting on. Politico has reported that Kaine has decided to make his first campaign speech in Loudon County. This should not surprise anyone given the fact that Loudon helped to deliver President Obama the Commonwealth’s 13 electoral votes in 2008.
Interestingly, however, just a year later in 2009 Bob McDonnell carried Loudon County. So the question is whether or not Virginia in 2012 will be a repeat of 2008 or a rendition of 2009-2010.
While many would automatically assume that counties like Loudon will mirror past Presidential year results, we should not jump to that conclusion. One of the strengths of Obama’s campaign in Virginia was that they were able to pull off the suburban areas of NOVA and Hampton Roads, this was accompanied by a strong showing among minorities. We see, however, that McDonnell was able to repeat that feat with suburban voters . I would contend that Republicans in Virginia have become much more capable of reaching suburban and minority voters than they were in 2008.
This will bode well for both the Presidential nominee and the Republican Senate candidate here in Virginia.
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About the author
Steven Osborne is a grassroots conservative activist from Central Virginia. He is currently furthering his education at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Virginia. In addition to writing for Bearing Drift he is also a columnist for the Christian Law Journal.
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4 Responses to "Back to the Future: Will Virginia ’12 be the same as ’08 or ’09-’10?"
“I would contend that Republicans in Virginia have become much more capable of reaching suburban and minority voters than they were in 2008.”
Well, they could hardly do worse. At a guess, the electorate in 2012 will be less Republican than in 2009-2010, but less Democratic than in 2008.
The enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats that was in effect in 2010, certainly won’t be in 2012.
But, I think GOP voters will be more motivated than in 2008 — although I guess that depends pretty heavily on who the presidential nominee is. I expect Dem enthusiasm to be more than in the last two cycles, but less than in 2008 when the opportunity to make history motivated a portion of the base.
How is it even remotely possible for Dems to have better turnout than 2008? That was literally a high water mark for the Democratic Party. It will never be that good again unless something radically shifts in the party mindset and philosophy.
There’s literally no new hills for the liberal movement to climb.
Obama has lost VA, NC and IN.
I don’t know. It seems awfully early in the cycle to make predictions. We don’t know who the Repub nominee will be for President. So far, none of them are very exciting. While it looks like Allen will be the GOP nominee for US Senate, that campaign is a big yawn too. Given current conditions in both parties, I suspect turn-out will be ho-hum which makes each Party’s GOTV program the top priority. And if the Repubs pull a repeat of 2008 with that effort, I’ll probably just stay home.
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