Bearing Drift Poll: If the election were held today…
By Shaun Kenney | Saturday, March 19th, 2011 | Politics
Once again, another totally unscientific and non-reliable poll from the Bearing Drift Center for Internet Studies. Since our last poll in January, a number of other candidates have thrown their hat in the ring, including Bishop Earl Jackson (best known for his work with the Family Foundation), attorney David McCormack who will “bring the HEAT” on election day, and entrepreneur Timothy Donner.
Also there is the only independent poll performed so far in Virginia on the upcoming 2012 nomination contest, which showed former Governor George Allen with a commanding 60pt lead over Bob Marshall, who came in second in the race. Allen sits at 67%, Marshall at 7% — all other challengers being within the margin of error.
Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.Poll will remain open until 22 March 2011 at 9pm.
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Shaun Kenney is the Chairman of the Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors, former Communications Director for the Republican Party of Virginia, and an active blogger since 2002. Shaun lives in Thomas Jefferson's backyard with his wife, six children, and a modest attempt at a farm in Kents Store, Virginia.
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40 Responses to "Bearing Drift Poll: If the election were held today…"
You need another choice:
“Really? This is all the Republicans have for Senate candidates?”
Um, HisRoc, that’s kinda what the “other/undecided” category is for…just without the snark.
Bob Marshall seems to be the target of criticism for a poor showing … 4th place, and only one vote behind Jamie Radtke, who has been campaigning her butt off, along with George Allen. Bob is the only one listed who has not declared candidacy or begun a campaign. Considering he’s not even a candidate, he’s doing pretty darned well. Grassroots conservatives are holding out for him, Tea Party and all.
Keep your eye out for him this summer. That’s all I’m going to say for now.
Marshall is still outpolling all of the other challengers… not bad, IMO.
I voted undecided. The only person anything about is Allen and I can’t say I’m revved about him, though I did vote for him in his last Senate campaign (that he lost). The rest are no-names to me except for Radtke and this Timothy Donner dude who sounds intriguing if nothing else. But, I am not a party insider so don’t know all the ins and outs. It is early. I’m sure it will flesh out. But so far, this groups is about as exciting as the GOP field for President. YAWN!
So just for Fantasy Candidate purposes, which Virginia politician would others like to see run for US Senate — if not the ones up here?
Still hoping Mizusawa jumps in. If he doesn’t, well…
Who would I like to see? Thomas Jefferson.
@Coby –
I haven’t heard much from Bert… maybe he’s keeping his powder dry for another race? Great guy, great candidate IMO.
I would love to see Cuccinelli jump in. Who knows, if he wins the health care law suit in time he might just do it.
Senate would be a poor fit for Cuccinelli.. Lets wait until McDonnell can appoint him to replace Eric Holder
Senate would be a poor fit for Cuccinelli.. Lets wait until McDonnell can appoint him to replace Eric Holder
Bert will run when/if Bert is ready and it is no stretch to state that a groundswell of support from a younger generation of pissed off conservatives will support his run. Eventually I want to see Bert run for US senate and if he plays his cards right he will run for Va Senate first.. Same can be said for some other US senate names being bounced around seriously.
Turbo, am curious to know – why the STATE senate? Certainly good training ground for those with less experience, but seems a real waste of exceptional talent for Bert to hole up in Richmond when we need him in DC ASAP.
Agree re Cuccinelli, plus the fact that senator would be almost a lateral move. He is ‘doing the most good’ right where he is. I would love to see him remain as AG for awhile and continue cleaning up other people’s messes. Then later, when he gets a little more traction, let him run for a higher office, like governor, or vp. We have a tendency to grasp at any attractive straw that pops up, we are so desperate for good leadership. Allen is not that, he is a retread, and what he did towards the end of his term is inexcusable. The only appeal he has to conservatives is name recognition. I am voting for Radtke.
Well, expect Jamie to spring into the lead here shortly, as she’s advertised the poll on Facebook. At least she’s reading the blog (or her staff is).
I like so many of them, I can hardly pick one! Bob Marshall, Bishop Jackson, Jamie Radtke, Ken Cuccinelli, are all great choices. Geo Allen isn’t a top choice but I wouldn’t vote against him… Virginia has some really fine conservative choices!
This just goes to show what an excellent tool we have in facebook. I’ve noticed several posting Bearing Drift on facebook with “vote for” and I wonder if it slanted the results? What a powerful tool.
As I wrote earlier…Donner is at least a change of pace. Might consider him. As you all know I am a big fan of Rob Wittman but I can’t see him jumping into this. But…if he did….why, what the hell…put his name on the fantasy poll and see what happens. (BTW all–he recently lost his father in case you did not know).
And also FWIW–just what is going on in the 99th House District? Dead silence here at Bearing Drift. Local gossip says five Repubs, no Dems. I know ding-bat Crabille is in it, and another guy from Lancaster. But also saw a huge sign up in Montross (Westmoreland County) last week that just said in big letters “RANSONE: DELEGATE” Can we have a thread on this?
Craig in Litwalton
Of course, every internet poll in the world can be “slanted” one way or another. It’s the nature of the beast, which is why these polls are wholly inaccurate as a gauge for anything other than measuring internet activism.
Beyond that, it’s still a useful benchmark for enthusiasm.
@Jay D — State Senator Mizusawa doesn’t have a poor ring to it… he’s got plenty of time to run.
Shaun: re: fanstasy candidates. It would be interesting to see what would happen if one of the incumbent veteran Conressmen…Goodlatte, Forbes or Wittman…tossed their hat into the ring. They all represent safe Republican seats — Forbes less than the other two — after all.
Guess we will just have to vote for the person we think will vote for the things we want and against the things we don’t. Also need somebody strong..I’m thinking Jaime right now!
Always interesting to get a finger on the pulse of Virginia. One question that I’d like to know the answer is, what is the overall positive/negative impression of George Allen? And assuming that there was only one candidate in the race against Allen which person, if any, could beat him head to head?
Lastly, why is the world is David McCormick polling so high right now? Is he the flavour of the month or is there something about him I haven’t discovered yet?
My guess? McCormack lives in Hampton Roads, and folks are driving their online bases towards Bearing Drift right now.
Overall Allen pos/neg is about 45/40… that’s ballparking it, but chances are the average voter in Virginia already has their mind made up on Allen.
“but chances are the average voter in Virginia already has their mind made up on Allen.”
I think that’s right. Question is which group of “average Virginia voters” turn up at the polls on Election Day 2012. If it’s the 2009/2010 electorate, Allen’s in good shape. If it’s the 2006 or 2008 electorate, he’s toast.
Annieflies said: “He is ‘doing the most good’ right where he is.”
More of us have to think more in these terms. We have to think in terms of fit and commitment to genuine conservative principles, not venality.
We need elected officials who are actually committed to working for us. The existing system is working hard to prove itself incapable of delivering them. Consistent $1.5 Trillion deficits demonstrates this beyond a doubt.
We simply cannot go back to put the same people into office when they have proven again and again that that politics the old style does not work anymore. Yes, Geroge Allen was defeated by the liberal media and he should have been treated not so unfairly but we need a new candidates for new challenges. I will vote for Mr. Mc Cormick, he has proven throught his carreer that from his humble beginnings as a UPS truck driver to a succcesfull lawyer that he cares about the little guy. Sorry, but George Allen does not stand for the average , hard working Republican anymore, but rather for why the Republican party has lost it.
Barring a major gaffe by Allen (and we all know that would never happen) I don’t see anything changing much between now and the election unless someone not on this list decides to run, the odds of which are slim.
But I could be wrong…I think that’s happened before…
Shaun, sending Bert to work part-time Richmond is like squirrel hunting with Tomahawks – “U.S. Senator Mizusawa from the Great State of Virginia” has a much better ring!
Bert is a warrior & winner and the national fight is now. I understand why party leaders (already backing Allen) would want to park him in the Assembly, but honestly … can’t see the General being satisfied with a sideline bystander role – not w/ his DNA!
Sure, Allen has name recog. & tons of cash, giving him undisputed front-runner status– at the moment. History, however, shows odds (and outcomes!) can change very quickly:
- Feb 7, 2006 – Webb announced.
- May 2006 – Larry Sabato said “Jim Webb is George Allen’s worst nightmare: a war hero and a Reagan appointee who holds moderate positions. Allen tries to project a Reagan aura, but Webb already has it.”
- June 2006 – Allen had $6.6 million in cash/ Webb less than $425,000.
- October 2006 – Conservative Fox News’ military analyst Col. Hunt endorsed Webb over Allen because, “Webb is marine combat hero … a battle tested military man and Allen is just a football player.”
- November 2006 – In just 9 short months! Allen got beat by the U.S. Naval Academy Vietnam veteran with a chest-full of medals.
Macacca wasn’t helpful, but it didn’t nail him (Webb had his own slipups); Allen was beaten by demographics. In 2006, Virginia’s transformation from Old South state to Mid-Atlantic player was well underway, driven by the explosive growth in NOVA’s more cosmopolitan and ethnically diverse communities. Allen lost because he lost those voters. Bert WILL attract and energize that block (now even larger) and he holds more than enough conservative credentials to satisfy the base,
Like Webb, Bert Mizusawa has the perfect profile to run against (and beat) Allen AND any democrat candidate the left spits out.
I heard Radtke on the radio a couple weeks back with DC’s Mark Plotkin. He asked her direct questions, most with yes and no answers. Would you support public rail options to Dulles Airport, would you support off shore drilling, do you favor HOT lanes in NOVA, and that nature. Most were softball questions, some just trying to get an actual position on a given subject.
If you liked Catherine Crabill, you’ll LOVE Jamie Radtke! I think her main campaign advisor is Floyd Bayne.
… And she’ll get the same paultry 8-12% of tinfoil hat wearers to follow her to the bulletbox, err ballot box.
I’d like to see a Marshall-Allen showdown.
I gotta say, I’m a Bert Mizusawa fan…
@Shaun ~ Ha! THAT has got to be the truest testimony to the magic and sheer brilliance behind a Bert-for-Senate campaign. Any candidate that can satisfy your hard-right AND my leans-left Republican sensibilities … is a winner!!
@Eric Martin
“If you liked Catherine Crabill, you’ll LOVE Jamie Radtke! I think her main campaign advisor is Floyd Bayne.
… And she’ll get the same paultry 8-12% of tinfoil hat wearers to follow her to the bulletbox, err ballot box.”
First of all, Floyd Bayne is NOT her campaign advisor, and what’s up with the “tinfoil hat wearers” comment?
@Igor She’s Not. Ready. To. Be. A. U.S. Senator.
Her rhetorical responses to the simple questions were exactly the style and emptiness that both Bayne and Crabill gave to the same simple questions. All three are either too arrogant or too dumb to realize that they sound like amateurs when asked questions that involve something other than a no-tax chant or greater than bumper-sticker length responses.
She comes off to me as more an opportunist attempting to harness a waning TEA limelight than the experienced, educated, and sincere public servant we need.
And while attractive, she’s no Krystal Ball, so there goes any votes against Allen from the moderate-left Dems and young voters who want to fight the “experience” of “city hall” at any cost (to someone else). I admire her zeal and chutzpah though.
“Turbo, am curious to know – why the STATE senate? Certainly good training ground for those with less experience, but seems a real waste of exceptional talent for Bert to hole up in Richmond when we need him in DC ASAP.”
1. Name ID
2. CASH
3. Bert MUST RUN, Must Win and Must campaign with Jamie to keep from being pinned as an establishment tool.
4. Allen will go radioactive and desecrate the general, get away with it.. of course if he does not get co-opted by the party.
5. See #1
Bert will gain name ID by stumping with Jamie and the fact thatJamie DOES have strong ties to media cannot be ignored.. Alternatively I would like to see Bert run as an advisor to gain ID then run in 2014. I like both of them for different reasons but given my druthers would rather see Bert run in 2012 and Jamie in 2014 yet I know that is not now practical.. Mizusawa for Va senate 2012 and US senate 2014.
Turbo ~ OMG!
Thanks for the response but …this plan is so wrong on every level.
1. Name ID – again, easy to fix in a short time.
2. Cash – Absolutely, a real hurdle – but not insurmountable. Webb took the seat with a fraction of Allen cash. It can be done and there is still plenty of time.
3. Jaime wouldn’t be the first candidate to want Bert’s advice; no question Mizusawa participation = elevated status + access to a brilliant mind, but at what cost to Bert? The longer Jaime is out there, the more apparent she’s in beyond her abilities – plenty of passion and sprit, but little substance. George Allen copies his “strategic vision” straight out of the GOP playbook and Jaime Radte offers simplistic TP talking points. If Bert doesn’t run, the wiser move would be to stay completely out of the primary fight and support the winner in the General.
“Establishment tool” is polispeak, but I understand why TP chose it – decent strategy to differentiate inexperienced newbi from old guard Bush-lackey. It might stick on Allen, but would be überdumb move to try on Bert.
4. Of course the Allen camp will ‘go radioactive’… Jaime presents no threat but a Bert-for-Senate campaign has redux 2006 potential! If the General can push forward through enemy fire, he can surely handle anything silver spoon boy lobs his way!
“Ties to the media” is not nearly a strong enough reason to ally with Jamie. Again, Bert’s story, background, and resume are unique– a PR director’s dream candidate. And, unlike Radtke, when he opens his mouth, he’s pretty freak’n impressive. Getting press and media coverage will be a no-brainer, should General M. enter this race.
Switch the players, Turbo …and I like your plan! Send Jaimie to the statehouse to ‘season’ a bit more and let’s run the guy that doesn’t need OTJT.
Where is Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio when you need him?
One thing that makes me extremely happy, Shaun and Brian are NOT running for state office. We don’t need anymore politicians that lie and make up stuff.
Brian, I saw the last comment you made about me. What a whopper of a lie.
Shaun, you better hope I don’t move to Fluvanna. I would tirelessly work to see a true conservative Republican beat you out.
Shaun Kenney is a true conservative and a great American.
I once asked him for a dollar and he wouldn’t give it to me. “Get your own fricken dollar you loser,” he said.
Sure I went hungry for lunch that day, but it taught me a valuable lesson … Pack a lunch.
I’ve been self sufficient ever since! Now if only we could elevate Shaun’s economic policies on a national level, we might be on the road to fiscal solvency.
May God bless Shaun Kenney and his fiscal foresight to save lives like mine.
The 2012 race is premature at the moment as there are many unknowns.. Everything right now is posturing and the true field isn’t even finished yet.
I predict Corey Stewart pulls out to defend his Chairman position on the Prince William Board of Supervisors and comes back statewide in 2013. We get another moderate republican, this time not pretending to be a conservative. We end up with 4 or 5 on the official ballot for the 2012 primary.
My favorites in order so far would be if they ran:
1. Bob Marshall
2. Bert Mizusawa
Both are heavyweights in experience, knowledge, legislative gravitas as for Marshall. Bert has served in the Senate on the Armed Services Committee already from the military front. Marshall could step in day one and go to work dismantling an over expansive government. Marshall’s resume is unmatched by any so far running. Marshall has a statewide movement already, Mizusawa would be attractive to many as well.
Whether they run is still uncertain but if they do it would be an exciting race with a lot to offer.
Eric,
BULL!!!
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