Senate retirements make Northern Virginia a major battleground

By Brian Schoeneman | Saturday, February 26th, 2011 | Politics

Since Ken Cuccinelli was elected Attorney General, the vast majority of Northern Virginia has been without a sitting Republican State Senator.  Loudoun, Fairfax, Prince William, Arlington and Alexandria are blanketed with Senate Democrats, with the exception of Jill Vogel.  As this week saw the last anticipated week of the 2011 General Assembly regular session – one that will obviously be extended due to the lack of a budget – a number of members in both the House of Delegate and the Senate have announced their retirements.  Two of the big names to announce their retirement were Patsy Ticer and Mary Margaret Whipple, two long serving Democratic Senators from the Arlington and Alexandria areas.

UPDATE: We’ve now heard that Chuck Colgan has confirmed personally to at least one Bearing Drift contributor that he will be retiring. That makes three from Northern Virginia.

Colgan is the longest serving Senator in the Commonwealth, and Whipple and Ticer have served in the Senate since 1996, making them two of the longest serving Northern Virginia members. Only Toddy Puller and Dick Saslaw have served longer, with Saslaw becoming Democratic leader the same year Whipple and Ticer joined.  Given the fact that we have three open seat races right now, Northern Virginia is setting itself up to be a serious battleground for control of the State Senate in 2011.

Do we in Northern Virginia have a serious shot at winning the Ticer and Whipple seats?  Probably not.  Colgan is winnable, however.  But our best chances at taking out vulnerable Democrats in the Senate lie downstate.  But having three open seat races, with the potential for at least one more – the as-yet-undrawn potential seat in western Northern Virginia we may pick up in redistricting – and the Democrats are going to have to pour resources in to races in areas where they typically have not had to do so.  Both Ticer and Whipple did not face Republican challengers in 2011.  Colgan’s district is in a solid Republican area and we should be able to pick up that seat.  Given that there are viable potential candidates with good name ID who live in both of these Arlington districts on our side of the aisle, at the very least we can keep the pressure and force the Democrats to spend money. And every dollar spent on a race they shouldn’t have to defend is one less they can spend on the tougher, more even matches in the rest of the Commonwealth.

Who could run for these seats?  This is just speculation, but the Attorney General’s race and the last Congressional races have produced a number of viable candidates who could run. Dave Foster, who ran in the Attorney General Primary and is a former Arlington School Board Member would be a great candidate. Both Matthew Berry and Patrick Murray, who ran for Congress against Jim Moran and live in Arlington could also be good candidates.  All three have relatively high name ID in those areas for Republicans and all three can raise enough money to make themselves viable.  The only question will be where the district lines will be drawn – and that may not be known for another two months or more.

Both of the Arlington districts are close to being within their required numbers, so it seems unlikely that the lines will be drawn much differently – although with a potential new seat, and the number of voters that the western districts in Loudoun need to lose, it’s possible there could be a shift here.  Some of Colgan’s precincts will likely end up in a new Loudoun seat, given that he is significantly over his numbers.  And, as always, given Democratic control of the Senate, the line drawers on the Senate side may try and play games in an Alamo like last ditch attempt to hold on to their majority, although that rarely works.

Unlike the House of Delegate races, which largely have remained out of the public eye, Northern Virginia has already seen a number of State Senate challengers crop up – which bodes well for our chances at keeping pressure on the Democrats across the State.  Janet Howell (32nd) in McLean has drawn a very, very tough challenger in Republican Caren Merrick, who I am looking forward to seeing win in November.  Chap Petersen (34th) in Fairfax City has already drawn one opponent, Gerarda Culipher, who serves with me on the Fairfax County Republican Committee.  Mark Herring  (33rd) in Loudoun has drawn two opponents – former State Senator Dick Black, who has already racked up a number of key endorsements, and Patricia Phillips, who ran and lost to Herring last time around.  Dave Marsden (37th), in my home district, has got at least one opponent, Steve Hunt, who he beat in the Special Election for Cuccinelli’s old seat in 2009.  I’ve also heard that former Tim Hugo aide Jason Flanary is going to run  in the 37th primary.  George Barker (39th) has got two opponents in Scott Martin, a professor at George Mason and Miller Baker, a very accomplished, DC based attorney.

Of the Northern Virginia Democrats, only two of the non-retirees – to my knowledge – have not drawn an announced opponent yet – Dick Saslaw and Toddy Puller. Given Saslaw’s latest votes and the ire he’s drawn in the left blogosphere, he may draw a primary opponent. And given how critical it is that Republicans take back the Senate this year, it seems likely that both Saslaw and Puller will have at least some kind of Republican opposition.

From my perspective, it seems like the Democrats are going to have a very tough time maintaining their control of the State Senate.  And these two retirements made that job a whole lot tougher.

PS – It is ridiculously hard to write well with a squirming 7 month old in your arms. I apologize for any really bad typos.

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