Ron Paul Sails to Victory in the CPAC Straw Poll
By Michael Fletcher | Saturday, February 12th, 2011 | Politics
But does it matter?
The Corner is reporting Ron Paul Runs Away With CPAC Straw Poll
As expected, Rep. Ron Paul (R., Texas) won the annual straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, an early, though unscientific, indicator of conservative favor as the 2012 presidential campaign cycle kicks into gear. Paul, with a 30 percent plurality, topped numerous high-profile White House contenders. He finished seven points ahead of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who placed second. All other candidates finished with less than ten percent of the vote.
This was pretty much expected. But could it be that the strong showing was a reaction to Donald Trump’s statement? On Thursday, Trump said that Republican Rep. Ron Paul “cannot get elected. Sorry” He was met by a chorus of boos.
Is he right?
CNN asks Do straw polls matter?
Jack Kemp won the straw poll in 1987, the year before 1988 presidential election. Vice President George H.W. Bush ended up winning the party’s presidential nomination.
In 1995, Phil Gramm came out on top at CPAC. But Sen. Bob Dole ended up taking the GOP nomination. Gary Bauer was the winner in 1999, but Texas Gov. George W. Bush won the nomination the next year.
In fact, in the history of CPAC straw polls, only Ronald Reagan (1980, 1984) and George W. Bush (2000) have actually won the CPAC straw poll and gone on to win not only the Republican nomination, but also the White House. Reagan also won the first straw poll in 1976 but lost the nomination to Gerald Ford.
CPAC always generates a buzz. And it’s certainly the place potential candidates need to be. But perhaps it’s not an indication to start measuring the White House drapes.
Mitt Romney came in second in this year’s poll with 23%. None of the other candidates broke 10%.
Donald Trump didn’t even make the list.
Cross posted to The Write Side of My Brain.
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Michael Fletcher works as a freelance writer and consultant in Richmond, Virginia. He blogs regularly at http://www.thewritesideofmybrain.com, http://www.richmondvabusiness.com and http://365thingsibelieve.wordpress.com
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32 Responses to "Ron Paul Sails to Victory in the CPAC Straw Poll"
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No, it doesn’t matter.
It does “matter”. It just isn’t an indicator of a national
Race. The exposure at CPAC and publicity generated always matters. That is why people bother to show up.
The long answer: it doesn’t matter at all except to the 20% of registered voters who self-identify as “conservative.” They will rally behind Ron Paul and, in the tradition that ranges from Barry Goldwater to John McCain, they will go down in flames in the general election if Paul is the Republican nominee.
This CPAC straw poll victory does and doesn’t matter, simultaneously.
While it is nice to receive the mounds of (mostly positive) media attention from the CPAC straw poll victory, this victory for Ron Paul isn’t much more than a beauty contest. The Obama campaign-esque electricity in the air at CPAC will have to translate into more than a straw poll victory or two to really shift the foundation of the electorate towards Ron Paul’s libertarian ideas.
Everyone around here knows I’m a major Ron Paul supporter, but I usually maintain a relatively reasonable view of his electoral prospects. It will be extremely difficult for Ron Paul to win the Republican nomination, but he’s clearly the top-dog of the underdogs. He has a massive grassroots network that is growing more sophisticated and has the capability of raising tens of millions of dollars online with ease. Additionally, Ron Paul will continue to gain momentum with potential legislative success to audit the Federal Reserve System.
As my friend D.J. Spiker said, if the stars align to the calculations of the Mayan calendar, he might have a shot – but the Earth might implode. While I’m not sure how I feel about that statement, it appears that a lot of factors could come into alignment and make this underdog a contender for a couple of primary states. Only time will tell…!
concur with Sterns. Ron Paul won almost every straw poll in 2008 and while that helped him stay in the primary much longer than others, it never reached the tipping point to get him the nomination.
despite the Tea Party, I doubt the tipping point has been reached for a true limited govt candidate to become the Republican candidate because the GOP is still a party of big govt ideals.
This does matter (and I’m not a Ron Paul supporter)! His proven ability to raise money, really raise money, and his standing as the quintessential Tea Party candidate, makes him a force to be reckoned with. The point is well taken that he may not win, but the MSM and many bloggers are wrong to just write him off as some has-been who needs to get out of the deep end of the pool. I think he can make a legit run at the nomination.
MRC, Esq.
Yes, he can make a serious run at the nomination. And what if he wins it?
Have you ever heard of George McGovern?
[...] number of party insiders told The Corner that this was a big deal; Michael Fletcher (Bearing Drift) is not so sure. I’d lean Michael’s wa, largely because I’ve seen this [...]
[...] number of party insiders told The Corner that this was a big deal; Michael Fletcher (Bearing Drift) is not so sure. I’d lean Michael’s wa, largely because I’ve seen this [...]
The interesting results to me are the strong showing of Romney and the lousy showing of Palin.
Also in the spirit of “please nominate”:
Republicans please nominate Ron Paul for President.
If you think the majority of voters are in favor of legalizing prostitution, legalizing recreational drug use and destroying Social Security, then Ron Paul is the candidate for you.
‘Nuf said.
@HisRoc, so consistently picking the “lesser” of two evils is a better strategy? I think that is what got us into the mess we are in.
@LittleDavid, remind me again of how effective the govt is at preventing immoral behavior and helping the elderly.
@Amit,
It is certainly much more effective now then if prostitution is legalized and Social Security is destroyed. Is that enough of a reminder for you?
How would social security be destroyed under Ron Paul?
And how does legalized politicians *cough* I mean prostitution, affect the elderly.
LD, do explain to us the evils of the Bunny Ranch . We have legalized prostitution now. Sure, the truck stop hookers don’t pay their taxes here inVirginia where its illegal.
Actually, if prostitution were legal and they paid taxes, there would be more money for Social Security or paying off the gigantic debt that Obama has amassed.
I didn’t get to go to CPAC but a friend I respect very much did and said she was impressed with Tim Pawlenty. She’s always been pretty good in the years I’ve known her to pick out winners.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/11/tim-pawlenty-cpac-speech-_n_822147.html
I say this with all due respect, anyone who thinks Ron Paul is a viable national candidate who has any potential chance to win the Republican nomination should not be taken seriously.
@LittleDavid, Social Security is going to get destroyed on the current path. Ron Paul is the only one asking young voters to “opt-out” of the program but still pay 10% of their income. Not likely to happen but if extreme measures are not discussed then Social Security is doomed.
@Kathy, I was at the Pawlenty CPAC speech and I have to say it was mostly flat with no actual details of how to cut the budget. Other than Ron Paul and Gary Johnson, it seemed liked all the presidential hopefuls are trying to one up another on who can insult Obama the most.
Have to agree with Amit…not sure of a 2012 Republican candidate yet, still a little early.
Anyone who believes Ron Paul is a serious national candidate hasn’t watched him on TV. He’s lousy live and unscripted.
@Ryto, the unscripted part is one of my favorite aspects of Ron Paul. while most of the speeches at CPAC were read from notes instead of teleprompters, RP spoke the entire time without referring to notes and was the only speaker who actually could talk intelligibly about the historic events in Egypt. that being said, I wish RP had Mitt Romney’s looks and the charisma of Allen West.
@Britt Howard,
Do not try to excuse the evils of the “Bunny Ranch”, I have been down I-80 in Nevada.
@Amit,
First off, workers do not pay 10%, they only pay 7.62% (with their employers matching it). All serious proposals for youngsters to opt out include provisions for them to pay in less.
Poll results indicated that — as some on the another thread who attended indicated — that CPAC has jumped the shark and become less relevant to what’s happening in the real world of national politics.
@LittleDavid, he 10% was not for FICA but for your entire income tax which is closer to 25% for many
Amit,
Do not try to confuse the debate about Social Security with the debate about the general income tax burden.
Yes, we Baby Boomers are owed a whole lot of money that the federal government has to repay. However we invested in federal bonds which are supposed to be about the safest investment in the world. If the federal government is going to renig on payments to us, then the feds better renig on all the private bond holders as well while they do it.
Of course those who continue to currently pay into the system should be able to expect the same rate of return. If reductions are necessary, Baby Boomers should feel the pain just as much as following generations.
I think the fact that Ron Paul has won at CPAC for the last 2 years in a row goes to show the growing power of the Tea Party Movement, and yes, Ron Paul does have a chance considering the current political atmosphere which is in his favor.
Ron Paul has the proven fundraising abilities, raising more money in one day then any other Presidential candidate in history, and last time he ran he only came in 4th in the primaries. Ron Paul will retain virtually all of his dedicated supporters from 2008 not to mention all the others he has picked up since. He also polls higher then any of the other possible candidates when placed in hypothetical matches against Obama mainly because Ron Paul isn’t as polarizing and his views appeal to independents. What really makes Ron Paul a good candidate however, is that he’s the only one that can truly undermine Obama’s base because of his foreign policy stance, and his views on personal liberties. Anyone who doesn’t give Ron Paul a second look is doing a great injustice to the Republican party.
And I think anyone who doesn’t see Ron Paul as a viable candidate “should not be taken seriously.”
“Pit maverick Republican Congressman Ron Paul against President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up, and the race is – virtually dead even.”
-Rasmussen Reports, Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Trevor, Ron Paul wins the straw poll at CPAC because he block buys tickets and gives them to his supporters so they are over represented.
I am willing to bet my car on the fact that Ron Paul will never be the chosen Republican candidate for President in any election. And I would go even farther on him never being President. It’s just plain irrational to argue otherwise.
Brian, all the other candidates do the exact same thing. Tom Woods of the Mises Institute said it best “Ron Paul wins CPAC straw poll. But it isn’t fair, they say. He inspired people to come vote for him. Um, well, isn’t that the point?”
Don’t let your bias cloud your judgement Brian.
Bump..
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/trump-ready-spend-600-million-run-13152398?tab=9482931§ion=1206834&playlist=1363932&page=1
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