On Egypt
By D.J. McGuire | Monday, January 31st, 2011 | International
Yet another Middle Eastern despot reliant on American support is in danger of falling. That’s just about all we know regarding the current situation in Egypt. What the future holds is anyone’s guess. The short version of analysis is best penned by Shaun Kenney:
I truly hope this is a democratic revolution, and that if so, the revolution succeeds rather than is stifled (as it was in Iran). If this is nothing more than a mere coup by the Muslim Brotherhood, then I hope it is crushed mercilessly.
The question becomes: what kind of revolution will this be in Egypt? One that empowers the people (see Central Europe)? One that further imprisons them (see Iran)? Or one that fails (see Communist China)? I’m in no position to answer just yet. I can, however, make some observations, FWIW.
Just about every largely Muslim nation has three large factions within it: democrats, secularists, and Wahhabists (in the case of non-Arab Iran, it’s Khomeinists). If one is the majority, it usually calls the tune (Wahhabists in Saudi Arabia, democrats in Iraq and Indonesia, and secularists in 20th-Century Turkey, for example). Elsewhere, the secularists (my term) tend to be the elites (although the other two groups will have some elite leadership) while the other two compete for support of the masses.
How the secularists react tends to drive events. In Pakistan, secularist Musharraf tried to win over the Wahhabists and freeze out the democrats, until it became clear to him that the Wahhabists would strengthen and he would weaken under that scenario. So he took a chance and tried reaching out to the democrats. Unfortunately, there was too much bad blood, and to this day in Pakistan neither the Wahhabists nor the democrats can command majority support – unless they do what is still unthinkable and reach out to Musharraf’s faction.
In Egypt, by contrast, Hosni Mubarak ruthlessly cracked down on both while insisting to each that he was their only protection against the other. The closest authoritarian model to Mubarak was the Shah of Iran, who managed to pull it off for 25 years. Eventually in Iran, Khomeinists and democrats decided it was better to knock out the secularist and argue over the future later.
Mubarak is actually 5 years beyond the Shah in longevity, but he, too, may be past his sell-by date. What we do not know yet is whether the democrats or the Wahhabists will take charge. As of Monday afternoon, the Wahhabists (known as the Muslim Brotherhood) seem to have the upper hand. They’ve already reached out to Mohammed El Baradei, who has an international reputation as head of the IAEA during the mullahs’ pre-Stuxnet drive for nuclear weaponry.
If that doesn’t reassure you, you’re ahead of the curve.
There are prominent democrats in Egypt, Ayman Nour among them, who can truly lead Egypt to a brighter future. We should do what we can to give them the upper hand.
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7 Responses to "On Egypt"
I’m afraid this is one of those international situations that doesn’t have a possible outcome that we’ll like.
While one can hope for the establishment of a democratic regime in Egypt, I’m not sure how realistic that is.
And, as we’ve seen in Iraq, democracy in the Muslim world doesn’t always play to U.S. interests. Jihadists have more power in the current democratically-elected Iraqi government than they did in the Hussein regime.
Iraq is the only country in the Arab mideast with even a semblance of a representative government and that was accomplished courtesy of the US Army and a good bit of luck along with Gen Petraeus’s brilliance. What would have happened in Iraq if Saddam had been ousted in a popular vote? Certainly nothing resembling what we have now. The Obama Admin had nothing harsh to say about Iran crushing the popular protests against the fraudulent vote there but seems happy to bless any figleaf Egyptian .. Tunisian.. Jordanian.. lebanese etc govt with jihadists pulling the strings. So I assume that’s what we’ll get.
In addition as Larry Kudlow and economists have noted the riots started over food Inflation fueled by the trillions of dollars that Bernanke and the Dems have been happily printing to support Obama’s wild spending. The dollars migrate overseas because the Dems have made private enterprise a curse word here. Bernanke has even insisted that the Fed will move to QE3 if necessary in its demented view. By then food and fuel inflation should topple a few more regimes and maybe democracies.
NB “..if Saddam had been ousted in a popular vote…” Sorry I meant popular revolt.
Israel will be blamed for the economic collapse that fuels rioting.. Everybody there blames the jews.
Read the following Telegraph article by Ambrose Pritchard. This is at heart a food riot, just like the one that caused unrest in 2008. And no, Israel and the Jews are not to blame. However, you can blame the United States Federal Reserve and Ben Bernanke. This is going to end in countries pulling away from the US dollar.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8291470/Egypt-and-Tunisia-usher-in-the-new-era-of-global-food-revolutions.html
Egyptians have long been fed up with decades of an autocracy that lives large while maintaining a deteriorating status quo.. This unrest has much to do with economic stagnation, flamboyant corruption, contrived shortages of food and material goods, Mubarek’s tolerance of fiscal and market manipulation by EU, US, Asia and especially UK markets (for his family’s personal gain) which is a form of tyranny in and of itself, and in some cases torture.
There are many educated Egyptians in this fight who are worldly and have all too much awareness of how they are being played by heavy handed elitists who cut off the internet and cell phone networks while the rest of the civilized world communicates and leads a better life.. the final straw has been placed on the camels back. If enough Egyptians yearn for a transistion from tyranny to global participantion then they will have to redouble their efforts to prevent the muslim brotherhood from hijacking them in the process while they make the transistion. Hopefully the old guard power brokers over there see the writing on the wall and either start granting more civil rights or step aside. Or the mob may start lynching them. Either way Egyptians will likely continue under some form of military ruled autocracy, otherwise they will fall into the grip of blood thirsty radical islamists filtering among them that up until now have been suppressed.
With a dose of realism, Obama will likely throw some more marbles where they protest. The Potus that could do no wrong but didn’t do anything good when he should have seems to be making latent gestures to mend fences with a tyrant, islamist and the Egyptian people all at once.. not a good recipe. With regret I am betting they pursue democracy of some form and fall under some form of islamist influenced military rule. This could go on for a decade.
Tunisia started things. Egypt is now in full-bore revolt.
Am I the only one thinking about the country sandwiched between the two?
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