Can NoVA jeopardize GOP control of the State Senate?

[Ed Note: This article originally appeared in print in Bearing Drift's January 2011 issue. To subscribe, join our mailing list and get a first peek in print every month.]

After a highly successful year at the ballot box, many Republicans have started planning for a good year at the polls in 2011. Northern Virginia may especially be one the biggest battlegrounds for the State Senate, given the fact that currently there are no Republican State Senators in Northern Virginia. In fact, the last Republican State Senator from Northern Virginia was Ken Cuccinelli. During a special election to fill his seat, Democrat Dave Marsden won, giving the Democrats one extra seat and making it harder for Republicans to regain control.

In addition, redistricting adds to this mess. Various candidates have announced for State Senate not even knowing which district they will be in. Thus far, there are already primaries in at least two races. In the 39th district, George Barker’s district, two candidates have already announced, GMU Dean Scott Martin, and Miller Baker, a lawyer for a national law firm. Steve Hunt, who ran for the 37th district in a special election, may also be redistricted in that district. In the 33rd district, former Delegate Dick Black is running, in addition to prior candidate Patricia Phillips. Spike Williams, a businessman, may also be in that district.

Redistricting also means that primaries may not even be held until August or September. Meaning, fundraising could be a serious problem. I asked Scott Martin, a candidate in the 39th district, what he thought about the late primaries and the multiple challengers in various districts. “It now looks like primaries won’t occur until late August 2011, which will severely jeopardize a challengers chance to unseat an incumbent,“ he said. “It is almost impossible to unseat an incumbent starting a general election in September.

Challenging candidates need to walk a district at least twice to have any real chance of winning, and with primaries so late; it will be physically impossible to accomplish that goal…. All late primary candidates should be aware of this, and understand they are increasing the chances of the incumbent winning, and damaging their party chances of picking up seats in the process.”

I also asked Spike Williams if he was worried that a late primary would lead to a much shorter general election. “Absolutely, and that’s one of the reasons why I chose to start my campaign so early,” he said. “Redistricting always benefits incumbents for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the fact that they have organizations already in place and can have an impact on the redistricting process that is greater than a non-incumbent.”

Patricia Phillips, a candidate who potentially may be in the same district as Spike, also weighed in. “The impact of redistricting on the election calendar is challenging and definitely leads to a later primary, she said. “The nomination process will hopefully focus on choosing the best candidate to win in the general election. If all candidates stay focused with that attitude, we should emerge with a united GOP for the general election.”

Even though 2011 promises to be a good year with the anti-incumbent mood so strong, and Northern Virginia already being a battleground for Republicans, many Republicans will silently be asking themselves if these late primaries and multitude of candidates can actually help the party.

One this is sure: I’ll be holding my breath to see if the GOP can take back a Senate Seat in Northern Virginia.

Contribute for Conservatism!

About the author

Josh St. Louis

Josh is studying Government and Administration of Justice at George Mason University. He also blogs under the name "Not Jim Moran" at http://rednova8.com