A GDP Perspective on China
By Shaun Kenney | Tuesday, January 18th, 2011 | InternationalSo everyone is quaking in their boots about the rise of China and “state capitalism” as an alternative to the free market? Before you go dropping $1,500 on those heirloom seed capsules and clinging to your rifles and Bibles, take this into account:
No I can’t embed the graph… but it’s notable to see just a few things:
- Japan and China are virtually tied. Is Japan an economic threat to American security?
- Most European nations of any size are relatively close to China in terms of GDP. In fact, if not for the last five decades and the current economic slump, it would appear as if China has merely arrived — not that they are about to compete with the United States.
- Most of the BRIC countries are in competition with Canada and Mexico. Again, are Canada and Mexico really threats to the economic security of the United States?
Now before a certain someone comes on here and drop kicks me in public (you know who you are), there’s no question that the People’s Republic of China is the single greatest threat to world peace we know today. China is an enabler of terrorism, a sponsor of rouge states, and still — to its very core — a Communist country.
All that having been said, that China is on the brink of eclipsing the United States as the pre-eminent world power is false in the extreme. We are literally light years ahead of other nations, and our capacity to grow remains unlimited.
Given the strictures and the political problems of the PRC, and given the openness and relative political stability of the United States, it’s not difficult to place your bets on Western Civilization for many decades to come.
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Shaun Kenney is the Chairman of the Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors, former Communications Director for the Republican Party of Virginia, and an active blogger since 2002. Shaun lives in Thomas Jefferson's backyard with his wife, six children, and a modest attempt at a farm in Kents Store, Virginia.
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10 Responses to "A GDP Perspective on China"
“still — to its very core — a Communist country.”
Not so sure. Once you allow a degree of free enterprise, it’s hard to keep ‘em down on the farm.
Although it would not be surprising to see China devolve into the same kind of kleptocracy that Russia has become.
So long as the rule of law isn’t upheld, a kleptocracy is inevitable.
On the larger point though, a Communist country is, by and large, a kleptocracy. Most tyrannical regimes are.
Well, I think the difference is, as you said, the rule of law. Tyrannical regimes, especially ideologically-based tyrannies like communist or fascist countries, strictly enforce their laws, although their laws are unjust.
For a true kleptocracy you need the kind of anarchy you had in Russia as the Soviet state crumbled or a leader who is more interested in stealing than leading like Hussein in Iraq or the Duvaliers in Haiti.
China has been a threat to the USA for the last forty years and now even more so. We owe them so much money it’s ridiculous.
It’s not a question of us owing them money. They are invested in our economy, as many other countries are invested in our economy. Why? Because we are the most stable nation on earth with the most robust economy out there. They invest here because it’s the safest thing they can do with their money.
And since their economy is inextricably linked with theirs, there’s no good reason for them to do anything overtly aggressive regarding our debt, because doing so would result in a ripple effect that would cripple them as well.
Our relationship with China is a complex one – the are a regional and strategic competitor of ours, but at the same time, they are an economic ally.
I think it goes to far to call them a threat. I simply view them as competition.
Brian, pay more attention to China’s ties to North Korea. And as far as investments, with my circle of influence, I have been concerned over so much “investments” from other countries. Big money to buy up foreclosed properties. What was American properties. Interesting times.
The unfortunate message implied in much of this thread is that the gap between the US and China is so vast and that our economy and potential are so filled with promise that we can continue to be complacent.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
If you travel and get out of capital cities, you will see Chinese encroachment on levels beyond comprehension. Go to Paramaribo in Suriname and you will find hoards of Chinese businessmen and military. Most readers will wonder where in Africa Surinam is located. Uhhhh, it’s not in Africa — it’s on the northeastern coast of South America. It has some of the world’s most extensive proven resources of aluminum, bauxite, and hardwoods and significant amounts of gold, diamonds, and oil. They just re-elected a former coup leader (Desi Bouterse) and the Chinese government recently gave them (as a gift) a fleet of vehicles and weapons to outfit their Army while their “businessmen” are signing contracts to gain leasing and ownership rights on most of the resources across the nation. Similar efforts are taking place across Brazil and the rest of South America. In Panama, the Chinese have moved into virtually every sector of the economy and have replaced the US as the major foreign influence (unless you throw Colombian narcos into the mix). When I was there this past June, I found them Chinese across the nation — and they weren’t vacationing. Jump over to Africa and you’ll find the Chinese scarfing up resources while we hemorrhage taxpayer dollars on misguided legacy largesse efforts tied to decades old relationships and considerations. From Sestern Sahara to Yemen and all the way down to South Africa, they are at work arranging long-term access to every resource critical to feed their expanding manufacturing base. Meanwhile, we are bogged down in ages old scenarios. I mean, do we really need to spend billions on Egypt AND Israel every year?
If you travel to Beijing or Shanghai or Xi’ An, you’ll be awestruck by the amount of construction taking place — cranes are everywhere and the buildings which have already been finished are more impressive than anything I’ve seen across the US (I’m originally from NYC).
This is not intended to be a primer on China or the world, but it is meant to state the obvious: we are financially enabling a state which has 1.3 billion people and a political-military agenda which is hellbent on undermining US influence and security. We allow them to rape our nation’s intellectual property and we have exported much of our manufacturing base to them — in addition to Mexico, other parts of Asia and India. If the Chinese spoke better Engrish, they’d have our service sector jobs, too, but instead, we send that work to Bangalore and New Delhi.
It is time for America to reprioritize our fiscal priorities, review and reassess our global multilateral relationships and to strengthen the laws which protect US intellectual property and jobs. The US actually CAN compete on a LEVEL playing field but historically tie our own hands behind our backs or allow other nations to get away with defaulting on loans to us, nationalize our US-taxpayer funded facilities or corporate funded enterprises, or to manipulate their currency or market access while we obsess with Cap and Trade, Kyoto protocols, and other disingenuous efforts to derail our prominence and leadership. For the first time in years, I am heartened by House-led efforts to right the course for American businesses and citizens but we have a long way to go before we will on a course which holds promise for our kids and grandkids.
The PRC is are not our friend. The Communist-led regime has no interest beyond preserving their iron-fisted grip on the masses and securing resources across the globe to support their insatiable demand as they grow. They have no regard for the environment (on most days, you can’t breathe without a cloth mask in Beijing) and absolutely no regard for human life.
Gas prices and precious metal prices and food prices are rising here and globally as we financially enable the creation of middle classes in China and India which dwarf our middle class. It’s Adam Smith’s invisible hand spanking our backside. Given a relatively stable supply of (fill in the blank — gas, oil, food, gold, etc.) any resource, when the demand goes up, the equalizer is price. Anyone who longs for the days of $2.50 gas or gold at $1200 will be unhappy as time moves forward.
My two cents . . . plus a dollar or two.
Thank you LifeLongElephant: Couldn’t have said it better.
On another note, the simple truth is until Americans make a point to buy American made products the hemorrhaging of jobs leaving the USA will only get worse.
I love Jaguars and Audi’s. I bought a Buick for principle. The American companies who send jobs overseas I try not to buy from them either. Unfortunately the utility companies that send customer service jobs to India or Pakistan I have no choice.
When I was offered the “opportunity” to make a lot of money grabbing up real estate for investors from countries who are not our friends I said no. I felt it was blood money.
No government or law can make Americans make financial decisions that are best for America. It is up to all of us.
“On another note, the simple truth is until Americans make a point to buy American made products the hemorrhaging of jobs leaving the USA will only get worse. ”
Kathy, I expect that you and I don’t agree with much politically, but we agree here.
As John Edwards said (before he was exposed as a cad), Americans need to be patriotic about something other than war.
Shaun: Unfortunately, PricewaterhouseCoopers came to a very different conclusion last spring.
By 2020 (using purchasing-power-parity-adjusted exchange rates), China will “oust the US as the world’s the largest economy” – 2032, w/out the adjusted exchange rate. India is not too far behind. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-16/china-economy-passes-japan-s-in-second-quarter-capping-three-decade-rise.html)
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