Senate 2012: How Did It Go So Wrong So Fast?
By D.J. Spiker | Thursday, December 30th, 2010 | PoliticsUgh.
It’s not even 2011 and that’s my sentiments about the 2012 Republican nomination battle. While most of the state is not paying attention to this intra-party nonsense, the posturing by the candidates and soon-to-be candidates has been awful. There’s no other word for it, simply awful from top to bottom. With the selection of a primary, the stage was set for former Senator George Allen to ascend. Bob Marshall and Jamie Radtke’s only chances were a convention, so with State Central opting for a primary, that in theory would have preempted any candidacy. Whoops.
So with a day before the New Year, the news media who always loves Tea Party insurgency has allowed Jamie Radtke a quick five minutes of fame. In return, she underwhelmed. Frequent glances at notes, inability to articulate and general lack of a message. Corey Stewart did the same thing last month. Allen is ‘under the radar’ while he allegedly contemplates a run (let’s not kid ourselves…he’s running) while Bert Mizusawa has yet to decide one way or another which way he’s leaning.
With a year and half until primary day, the four assured candidates (Allen, Radtke, Marshall and Stewart) have done little to make this a healthy, spirited debate. Let’s take a look, with odds.
George Allen (1:3) – The hero of the modern Republican Party of Virginia, he is revered in old school circles for what he did for the party and bringing about the modern conservative movement to Virginia. His tenure as Governor is nearly universally lauded for his accomplishments. The ascension to Senate nominee seemed preordained. Then the Bush Republican Era brought about a litany of votes from Allen that were horrifying in conservative eyes, including rapid expansion of government through the Patriot Act, Medicare, Homeland Security, No Child Left Behind, to name a few. These votes make many of the newly involved conservatives, especially amongst the Tea Party, wary of Allen. This is a great example of some outreach for Allen needs to do, to win over not only the old guard RPVers but the newer arrivals in the Tea Party. Given this opportunity, when the WaPo calls about the situation, Allen responded:
“Some of the things they are saying – it is laughable when you look at my record,” said Allen, 58, a former congressman and governor.
Opportunity wasted. Not near as bad at the macaca incident, but a wasted opportunity nonetheless.
Bob Marshall (100:1) – To describe his candidacy at this point as DOA would be understating it. Earlier this year, Bob Marshall disclosed to everyone he felt children with birth defects were God’s punishment for abortion. After this disastrous story, rather than apologize, first Marshall tried denying saying it. Then, when confronted with audio and video, Marshall attempted to spin semantics over his quote, alleging it was taken out of context. The story fell by the wayside, particularly in light of the health care debate, but Marshall’s hopes for any higher office were bludgeoned. Then last week, Bob Marshall felt he needed the limelight, calling for a huge overreach of government in a pathetic attempt to ban gays from the National Guard. Including in his quotes bits about sodomy and worrying about the guy behind him in a foxhole, Bob Marshall made himself to be a caricature, rather than a candidate. At this point, only the zealots are still backing Bob Marshall, but given his track record, he’ll have another public relations disaster in six months.
Jamie Radtke (25:1) – Fundamental issues, particularly grassroots opportunities. I’ve given my theory about the problems with a Tea Party candidate in Virginia to a number of Tea Party and C4L associates, who grudgingly have admitted I may be correct. The Tea Party in our state is national in nature; little attention has been paid to local and state issues in the nearly two years since it surfaced. The odds are against a sudden awakening towards state politics, particularly in a non-statewide year. By and large, with the exception of any national events, the Tea Party will be dormant in 2011 within the state. Sure they’ll have meetings and whatnot, but they’ll have little impact in any state legislature races, and little desire to even get involved. This leaves a gaping hole in the grassroots components for 2012 amongst Radtke’s people. To jump start an organization from nearly scratch presents a logistical nightmare. That’s not even to mention the Sharon Angle/Christine O’Donnell comparisons that are sure to come in droves over the next year. Radtke follows two unfortunate Tea Party candidates with national profiles, particularly O’Donnell, and will spend much of the next year trying to differentiate herself from that amongst the media.
Corey Stewart (50:1) – Stewart’s coming out party was a universal disaster. Knocking George Allen, Ken Cuccinelli and Bob McDonnell left jaws dropped across the state, perhaps with the exception of those in NoVa who are used to Stewart’s ill-timed outbursts. The messaging seemed to drastically over-estimate’s Stewart’s name ID, yet much of the state and party hack’s were more like ‘who?’ Despite any truth Stewart might have had in his message, it didn’t resonate because too many people didn’t know who he was. There was a collective ‘huh’ from across the state with his back to back interviews knocking on individuals that the party structure holds in high regard. Luckily for Stewart, he’s gone dark and there’s plenty of opportunity to get things back on track. However, Stewart’s signature issue is immigration, putting him at the rear of the field in hopes that immigration will hurdle the economy, transportation, the economy, jobs, spending, etc as the most important issue in the election (i.e. not likely)
There’s problems across the board. It’s always been Allen’s to lose and that hasn’t changed. But with the missteps and logistical problems before we even reach 2011, the race is getting that much easier for Allen. (you’ll note from my odds the chances I think each candidate has, with Radtke, Stewart, Marshall, in that order. If Mizusawa jumps in put him at 15:1ish)
That pits the party with the uncomfortable prospect of scorched earth, ‘anyone but Allen’ mentalities.
It’s going to be a long year.
Ugh.
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Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right...entrenched on the right as a member of the Establishment, proudly tattooed member of the Republican Party, bartender by trade serving both sides the libations needed to continue the debate and discourse. College student, ten years late, majoring in Public Policy and Administration with an eye to serving the conservative and Republican movement in the public or private sector. ducit amor patriae You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com. You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com.
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24 Responses to "Senate 2012: How Did It Go So Wrong So Fast?"
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Bearing Drift. Bearing Drift said: Web: Senate 2012: How Did It Go So Wrong So Fast? http://bit.ly/eBw9eJ [...]
The 110th Congress should have instructed the 111th congress that to blindly follow the worst ideas of the President, simply because he is in your party, is wrong and will send you home. If Gov. Allen were were to acknowledge that, he would have no problems with me should breeze through the Primary (who am I kidding, I still have stack of bumper stickers and a spool of lapel stickers I’m itching to give out). I’m just saying…
On the topic of Bob Marshall, I would support him if he won the primary given who he’ll be running against (Webb) but his disengagement of the Senate race in 2008 after his Convention loss to Gov. Gilmore puts him at the bottom of my list among Republicans.
So uh.. DJ, in the tank for the establishment again ey? Pretty stiff drink ya mixed there bartender.
Amazing. Webb won by a pubic hair in 2006 and there is no credible Republican to challenge him six years later.
Very sad.
Feh. If this were real betting odds, there would be a giant OFF listed on this one. (Allen is 1:9 if I had to put odds on it.)
If your local newspaper or radio station doesn’t announce high and low tide times, then you don’t know who Mizusawa is.
The Honorable Mr Spiker has produced an accurate assessment of the race that borders on being a piece of art.
It’s going to be a long year.
Turbo,
Not sure how you get I’m in the tank for establishment.
Clearly laid out the problems ALL te candidates have had thus far.
Allen being the prohibitive favorite is a statistical fact. Mentioning it does not ‘make me in the tank.’
If the field stays as is, I’d almost have to support Allen. Hope Bert makes some moves.
Very accurate analysis. I always thought that Webb was a one-term wonder. Someone who swept in on anti-Iraq War sentiment.
Yet, as much as I am surprised to say it, Webb could win re-election.
The GOPers that I speak with all seem to have ennui with George Allen. He’s yesterday’s man for yesterday’s battles…yet the other three candidates that are contemplating running have their flaws.
Here’s a serious question for Bearing Drift….why is Goodlatte never mentioned for the Senate? To me, he is an ideal candidate. He’s a mainstream conservative. He’s got a very good record on Ag, which is important in the western part of Virginia. He also is respected by Democrats, as displayed in his invitation to be a prosecutor in the recent judicial impeachment trial in the Senate. The Democrats’ recent playbook is to portray GOP candidates as “extreme” and “outside the mainstreatm” but I don’t think that would work with Goodlatte’s record and very professorial manner.
So, why is he never mentioned?
Turbo, its so funny to watch you bash on the “establishment.” establishment by definition means they have their shit together and have created a strong foundation. so therefore if you’re not part of the establishment guess what that makes you?
Get real and quit acting like the “establishment” is some big boogeyman. The establishment as you call them are the doers. You contend that being part of the “establishment” is something to be embarrassed about or that a statesman like George Allen is outdated and that concentrating on his imperfections makes you a realist.
Not so. It makes you a cynic.
Being a cynic is easy. You can just sit back, heckle from the cheap seats while others volunteer, win campaigns, and build a strong, effective party.”
the organized establishment are the ones who write history’s stirring chapters. Cynics read those chapters and seem not to understand. So go ahead, be the political version of the goth kids who wear black clothes and makeup and rage against the man. Or, you can be of value by organizing and successfully working for a cause and become a decision maker. That will make you establishment though.
There have always been those who contend that what’s wrong with the GOP is the establishment. Don’t believe them. Remind people why you’re proud of our party and our values, and why those values are worth defending. When some in the party sell out those values, call them on it.
Remind them of their obligations but remember too, they got us this far in Virginia. Without the so called establishment, Dickie Cranwell would have become Speaker. Creigh Deeds would be Governor. And the policies of Dick Saslaw would reign all over this commonwealth.
“Michael Steele has a message for the unnamed GOP insiders who recently told Politico they fear the possibility of a Sarah Palin presidential run: “shut up.”
“These Republican leaders who don’t put their name in print but make comments in the shadows need to shut up,” Steele in an interview on CNN Monday morning. “We need to focus on winning elections tomorrow night. … I need every Republican in the country, whether they are in the shadows or not.”
Steele also said he was “very happy” with Tea Party favorite Joe Miller in Alaska, and dismissed rumors that the GOP is concerned about insurgent candidates. Those who are, said Steele, need to shape up and serve the party’s election efforts.
“[Miller is] our nominee for the party and the Republican committee supports our nominee,” said Steele. “There’s no where to throw support anywhere else except behind him so I don’t know who these Republican leaders are , but they need to be focused on winning the election and not trying to gerrymander the outcome.”
Steele insisted that “shadow” Republicans creating divisions within the party need get in line with desires of the Tea Party.
“[The Tea Party] is an organic movement. You can’t tell them who to vote for or who not to. That is anti-American. The people want to take creative control of the election,” said Steele. “Again, that’s what frustrates … Republicans within in the party with establishment types who think they know more than the people about who they want to lead them.”
Could not have said it better myself. No matter what you may think of chairman Steele, he is dead on the money.
The problem, as I see it – is the goal of “winning an election” versus the goal of electing good people that will do the best things when in office.
Electing people whose decisions are based on serving the people that live within in their political district instead of serving the interests of the people that control a political party.
The TEA Party is more about supporting people whose decisions are based on serving the people that live within in their political district then supporting people who run with their goal being to serve the interests of the people that control a political party.
What appears to be over looked is that the TEA Party is filled with citizens that understand that it mess our nation now faces is BECAUSE of the failed “two party system”.
I do not see the failure being because of the 2 party system. The problem is that too many people do not seek unbiased information about people seeking leadership at all levels and too many people fall for false icons. The parties create them to serve themselves.. Obama was such a creation. The dems iconized him in order to coat their agenda with teflon. All the criticism did not take him out and that was by design.. The people did not get want to know the facts because they fell for the story line.
The mess is the people who vote without anticipating the consequences of empowering who they vote for and that is part of the inspriation for the “organic movement”. Telling voters who to vote for IS anti-American but a sucker is born every minute and they vote in bloc’s.. Todays establishment gop and dem types who impose their candidates on the people are less concerned about the leadership that benefits we the people than who the elite ruling cla$$ wants to lead the party.
Tea Party organism is the live vaccine that the establishment immunity is fighting. No need for adjuvants here.. The fever has just begun and the sweating will follow.
I’m not sure of the relevance of the last three comments, whether true or not.
However, the Tea Party statewide in Virginia is not a strong, united grassroots effort. That alone is a major handicap for Radtke. There’s little established base for her to appeal to in a statewide primary, as evidenced in the failings in the 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th and 10th districts this past cycle.
Bob Marshall has been a disaster.
Corey Marshall has been a catastrophe.
At this point Allen can just wait until June or July of this year to announce and still coast to the nomination.
Everyone needs to get their A game together, because right now it’s Allen in a walk and it’s not even close.
Mr. Spiker writes:
“I’m not sure of the relevance of the last three comments, whether true or not.”
Please allow me to explain. I predict that Democrats will turn out in large numbers in Virginia to vote President Obama a second term. They will also vote for Senator Webb.
The GOP establishment risks alienating the TEA Party vote and their support if George Allen is annointed due to the use of a primary over a convention. Burt Mizusawa may chose to run as an Independent. If not him, perhaps Jamie Radtke.
Should this happen then many of the TEA Party voters that might have voted for a Republican on the ballot (Radtke) may choose to vote for a 3rd Party/Independent option. You see, the TEA Party wants real “change”, not more of the same.
I don’t predict any such challenge will materialize to Senator Webb from the Left/Progressives in VA.
Thus, the annointing of George Allen by use of a primary may result in Senator Webb’s re-election – because the margins are very close between Democratic Party voters and VA Republican party voters in Virginia. Clearly the Unions will be a major force behind opposing the Republican Party choice on the ballot. Can the GOP afford to alienate the TEA Party activists?
Apparently they think so.
Adding to Rieds observations, Allen has a race relations problem now that will haunt the RPV leadership and it goes way beyond black & white.. This was dissed by the present leadership but you can decide for yourselves if the angst is real or is it memorex..
http://www.youtube.com/watchv=mzzqM0a22jU&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watchv=Ox5ArAH7u2Y&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVYoTnuwqbk&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watchv=LmxpX6I0qQE&feature=related
DJ, good job, good article.
D.J. This is one of your best and I share your sentiment – “UGH!” I’m curious to hear your opinion on what you believe stands between Bert Mizusawa and a successful campaign for the Republican nomination, should he decide to run?
Jay D, I think Bert should run but he and Jamie HAVE GOT to work together this round. There is no other way. The campaigning statewide will boost both of their name ID’s and one of them can win 2012 then 2014 if their combined talents can forge an alliance that hesitant conservatives can believe in without feeling that the need to vote for the crowned prince of the rpv. Seasoned politician with former senator and former governor is not the recipe for a coronation these days if you have supported well over 40,000 earmarks like Allen has.
Turbo, maybe I’m missing something, or perhaps I expect more than most from our next Senator? Kudos to Jaime for passion and energy, but … well ….uh … Where’s the beef? The position is significant; shouldn’t the potential candidate bring equally significant and substantive experience ~ and be judged on such? What, other than in-the-bag Richmond area Tea Party endorsements, makes Jaime ready to earn my 2012 vote?
It’s a bloody shame that voters do not consider the resume of the candidate before making a pragmatic choice for their next public servant.
Having worked in high profile campaigns, including a successful U.S. Senate Race, as Press Assistant, I can say first hand the whole election process has been denigrated into a Big “Cosmetic Urinating” Contest by bombarding the Television Airwaves with Non Stop Propaganda.
Joseph Goebbels was the master of Propaganda and our Election Strategists use methods right out of His Playbook.
Has there been any news about a possible run by Reps. Goodlatte, Forbes, or Wittman?
Meanwhile, Bob Marshall continues to confound and dismay anyone who thinks that he belongs in public office at any level. His latest proposal: Virginia needs to coin its own currency “in the event of a major breakdown of the Federal Reserve System.”
Ever read Section 8, Article I, of the US Constitution, Bob?
Bob Marshall has company http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-7I5gBi9RE&feature=player_embedded
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