I’ve been hearing about our “transportation crisis” in Hampton Roads for years now, and it always struck me as funny.
Every year, I run new polls on issues and every year, they say the same thing about transportation year after year.
Polls show it’s a big problem, and polls show it’s more of a problem for Democrats than it is for Republicans. But what’s the problem? And do the solutions do anything about them?
It’s math, folks.
Ask if people want taxes raised for transportation plans proposed for Hampton Roads, and you get numbers strikingly consistent with the 2002 referendum raising sales taxes – No 62%
Over 200,000 voters said No and 125,000 voters voted Yes.
To understand this, you have to understand where congestion is and what percentage of people is impacted by it.
In Hampton Roads, highway congestion is at the tunnels (HRBT, Midtown, Downtown). What percentage of voters get stuck daily at these tunnels? According to VDOT, the HRBT peaks at 100,000 vehicles per day – since daily commuters get counted twice, we’re around 50,000 people using the HRBT on the busiest days. The Downtown Tunnel has similar numbers, and the Midtown is about a third.
That means roughly 130,000 vehicles even use these three tunnels daily. Odd how that’s so close to the number of voters who were willing to raise taxes for tunnel improvements, eh?
Just over 851,000 voters live in Hampton Roads.
Bottom Line: Most citizens don’t frequently get stuck in tunnel congestion, so raising taxes to improve it doesn’t impress these voters.
What does? Ask your neighbors where they see the most traffic. On the Peninsula, you’ll hear Jefferson Avenue, or in Virginia Beach, you’ll hear Dam Neck or Indian River.
The vaunted SIX regional projects aren’t seen as any solution to the traffic congestion a majority of voters encounter daily.
Now that the Southeastern Parkway has been deemed the biggest danger to the environment since the aerosol can, that makes the largest city in Virginia, and 25% of Hampton Roads, with not an inch of asphalt to gain from any highway solution.
So, what do we do?
Ready?
Do you really want to know the secret plan to get popular support for something that only benefits a minority of voters?
I wrote this in 2002, and I’m happy to write it again. The authors of the 2002 Sales Tax Referendum used a similar referendum from Jacksonville, Florida as their model….so they said. But they must not have read it.
Jacksonville realized that new highways just wasn’t enough to get a majority level of support in their referendum.
So they broadened it.
“The project includes transportation projects, a new courthouse, main library, arena, baseball park, sewer lines, environmental clean up, and “smart growth” land preservation purchases.”
It passed with 57%. A sports arena! Libraries, Parks, Open Space purchases.
How do you get the answer you want? Change the question. Broaden the issue beyond roads. Get the voters who never go near a tunnel to support a new sports arena. Get the voters who may not even drive much to support libraries and parks. Get the environmental loudmouths who oppose every new road to shut up with a nice share of Chesapeake Bay funding or something.
Add money for city streets rather than giant tunnels.
Craft your majority.
Either that, or keep waiting for voters to give a different answer to the same question you’ve been asking them for the better part of a decade.
It’s up to you.
