Interesting data point to consider on redistricting in Virginia
By JR Hoeft | Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010 | PoliticsJay Cost has a thoughtful article in “The Weekly Standard” about the movement in electorate, public, et al. regarding their ideology and votes. But one paragraph in particular I found very interesting with respect to our own redistricting discussion soon to happen here in Virginia:
My opinion is that the Democratic Party’s coalition has become too urban for it to sustain itself as a majority coalition in Congress over the long run. Prior to the Depression, the Democrats won when they united the rural South and West with just enough ethnic voters from the big cities. The Democratic super majority that began under Franklin Roosevelt was built upon the South and West, plus massive hauls from the cities. But nowadays the Democrats win the cities, but are much weaker everywhere else. This is important because in our system of government, the distribution of the vote matters. Democrats won the big cities by 65-33 in the 2010 midterm, meaning that their voters were clustered into safely Democratic districts. The Republicans won the suburbs and small towns by smaller margins, meaning that less of their vote was “wasted.” The GOP’s advantage, in other words, is more geographical than ideological.
Where did Republicans win this election cycle in the commonwealth – the 2nd, 5th and 9th? In the 5th, Charlottesville – the metropolatin and “intellectual” center of the district – voted heavily Democratic. In the 9th, the largely rural district overwhemingly repudiated Congressman Rick Boucher and has realigned federally to the GOP, moving along the trend it has shown at the state level. Of course, the 2nd District is the anomaly to this theory because Virginia Beach is the state’s largest city. But calling it a city is also playing a little fast and loose with the English langauage, considering its lack of industrial base and a large city center. It is very much a “bedroom” community.
Where did the GOP lose? In the 11th – Northern Virginia. Where a city scape is developing and traffic snarl is a way of life. Not to mention an unhealthy dependency on the federal government for jobs.
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About the author
Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
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18 Responses to "Interesting data point to consider on redistricting in Virginia"
I should have mentioned that I only brought up the districts that had competitive races.
However, if you look at the 3rd and 8th – they share a mainly urban geography – and they went Democratic.
The other districts, won by the GOP, have largely rural or suburban areas – at least enough to counter whatever urban sections are located in their districts.
I would say Virginia Beach is more a suburb of Hampton/Norfolk/Portsmouth. Unlike them, it’s basically a county (Princess Anne) that renamed itself a city to prevent Norfolk and Portsmouth from annexing parts of it.
Norfolk and Nansemond Counties did the same thing (they’re now called Chesapeake and Suffolk cities, respectively).
Those of us that live here know that, DJ, but good point nonetheless.
Good point? Are you out of your mind? There is more business activity in Virginia Beach than in Norfolk and Chesapeake combined. If you really think that Virginia Beach is a suburb of Norfolk, you are really ill informed, or simply are making a joke. Which is it?
By that same argument, Fairfax County isn’t a suburb of DC, but we all know better.
Virginia Beach is what Princess Anne County was geographically.
Virginia Beach — a tourist attraction attached to a county. Not very urban.
This isn’t a business discussion, Mike, it’s a demographic/geographic one.
When I think “city” or “urban”, Virginia Beach ain’t exactly Chicago – or even Richmond or Norfolk for that matter.
those of us in the rural part of the 5th (i.e. NOT Albemarle) aren’t bothered in the least that you don’t deem us the “intellectual” center.
Good post, J.R. It will be interesting to see what redistricting brings us.
I used “quotes” kelley!
Please, D.J., stop displaying your ignorance. V.B. is the largest City in the Commonwealth with a population of some 430,00. Yes, the city is a tourism destination, but benefits from Port activity and the military as well. It is the home of the tallest building in Virginia in it’s Town Center, and has a city/school budget that tops $2B. It hosts office parks, industrial parks, has an interstate running through it, and boasts property worth some $50,000,000,000. If that is not a city, what is it?
Has much has this hurts me to say I actually agree with Mike Barrett. The metro region is now known as Va Beach/ Norfolk metro area.
Mike-
All those things are true. But it also remains a collection of largely residential neighborhoods and strip malls. Give me a break.
You really think Virginia Beach compares in urban environment with downtown Norfolk?
A couple of tall buildings does not a city make. If it only had light rail….
Oh…and way to hijack the thread again. This is supposed to be about redistricting.
Calling Virginia Beach “a city” is like calling the Bismarck “a battleship”. The Bismarck was actually an oversize commerce raider, thus it’s design was different than a battleship.
Mike, we’re slowly morphing to City status, but we’re not there yet. We are on paper to a good extent, but not on the ground.
Back to redistricting, nice that some Dems realize they have a serious problem. The huge catch is what issue or issues do they emphasize and/or flip on to get rural and/or suburban votes? Sounds nice in theory, but how do they actually execute it?
Yeah, maybe if Virginia Beach had more crime, more unemployment and bad schools it could be called a city.
“When I think “city” or “urban”, Virginia Beach ain’t exactly Chicago – or even Richmond or Norfolk for that matter.”
Resactly. Cities have fortune 500 companies.
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