Jay Cost has a thoughtful article in “The Weekly Standard” about the movement in electorate, public, et al. regarding their ideology and votes. But one paragraph in particular I found very interesting with respect to our own redistricting discussion soon to happen here in Virginia:
My opinion is that the Democratic Party’s coalition has become too urban for it to sustain itself as a majority coalition in Congress over the long run. Prior to the Depression, the Democrats won when they united the rural South and West with just enough ethnic voters from the big cities. The Democratic super majority that began under Franklin Roosevelt was built upon the South and West, plus massive hauls from the cities. But nowadays the Democrats win the cities, but are much weaker everywhere else. This is important because in our system of government, the distribution of the vote matters. Democrats won the big cities by 65-33 in the 2010 midterm, meaning that their voters were clustered into safely Democratic districts. The Republicans won the suburbs and small towns by smaller margins, meaning that less of their vote was “wasted.” The GOP’s advantage, in other words, is more geographical than ideological.
Where did Republicans win this election cycle in the commonwealth – the 2nd, 5th and 9th? In the 5th, Charlottesville – the metropolatin and “intellectual” center of the district – voted heavily Democratic. In the 9th, the largely rural district overwhemingly repudiated Congressman Rick Boucher and has realigned federally to the GOP, moving along the trend it has shown at the state level. Of course, the 2nd District is the anomaly to this theory because Virginia Beach is the state’s largest city. But calling it a city is also playing a little fast and loose with the English langauage, considering its lack of industrial base and a large city center. It is very much a “bedroom” community.
Where did the GOP lose? In the 11th – Northern Virginia. Where a city scape is developing and traffic snarl is a way of life. Not to mention an unhealthy dependency on the federal government for jobs.
