PWC Celebrates Rule Of Law Driving Out Nearly 8,000 Hispanics
By Jason Kenney | Wednesday, November 17th, 2010 | Catch-AllUVA’s Center for Survey Research released a study today showing that between 2006 and 2008 Prince William County saw a decline in their Hispanic population and that their growth now lags behind other counties in Virginia:
The three-year, $385,000 study – released Tuesday by the university’s Center for Survey Research – also found that the county’s noncitizen Hispanic population, legal and illegal, dropped by 7,700 from 2006 to 2008, and that illegal immigrants accounted for 2,000 to 6,000 of that decline.
The study also found that illegal immigrants were committing a relatively small percentage of the county’s serious crimes, just 6 percent in 2009.
The study also points out that this decline coincided with the economic downturn but that the law had an impact, citing the economy for about half of the decline. But the report also states that that the Rule of Law may have hurt PWC’s economy as well, citing that foreclosure rates in the county were significantly higher than in surrounding counties (see page 79 of the report).
Also:
The study also found that illegal immigrants were committing a relatively small percentage of the county’s serious crimes, just 6 percent in 2009.
A 6% crime rate is proportionate to the estimated size of PWC’s population that is here illegally. Nor does this necessarily demonstrate a significant decline thanks to Rule of Law. The report specifically states that not only is there insufficient data concerning the crime rate among illegal immigrats before the law’s implementation, a decline may also be contributed to less victimization of illegal immigrants but also fewer illegal immigrants reporting crimes out of fear of deportation (page 84-86).
So at the end of the day Prince William County is celebrating the shedding of nearly 8000 people since 2006. Of whom, anywhere from 1,700 to 5,700 were completely legal Hispanics. But we’re not sure if that was the economy or Rule of Law.
Hispanic population growth is flat compared to surrounding counties, but again, this could be Rule of Law or the economy. Prince William county is still recovering from its standing as the unofficial foreclosure capital of Virginia, meaning opportunities not only for Hispanics but all people are limited within the county. It’d be interesting to see if the decline in Hispanic population is proportionate to a decline in the county’s overall population over the same span of time.
So did Rule of Law work? Ultimately the jury is still out. If Rule of Law worked, while PWC saw a decline in illegal immigrants, it also lost an equal number of legal residents. At a cost of $3 million to implement and maintain, not counting another $385,000 to commission a report. So the county so far has spent between $565 to $1692.50 per illegal Hispanic who has left the county. With an estimated 103,000 illegal immigrants in the Commonwealth, a similar program statewide could cost us $56-170 million dollars to implement. Proportionally speaking. That’s a lotta government we’d have to fund.
And what was the ultimate impact for Prince William County? So far one of the highest foreclosure rates in the state and fewer legal residents.
Is this a win?
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About the author
Jason Kenney has blogged at J’s Notes since 2001, is the director of RedStormPAC providing online fundraising for Republican candidates in Virginia, and co-founder of K6 Consulting. He is a graduate from Virginia Commonwealth University and resides in Richmond, Virginia.
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7 Responses to "PWC Celebrates Rule Of Law Driving Out Nearly 8,000 Hispanics"
Alternate and more snarky (yet still accurate) title:
PWC Celebrates Driving Out Legal Residents and Up Foreclosure Rate
Good grief. If you walk into the discussion with the pre-conceived notion that a huge collection of outright racists wanted to drive out people who don’t look like them, you sure can find a way to torture this report into supporting that position. If you approach this with an open mind and actually read the report in detail, you’ll see that the intent, and the overall effect was to discourage the unlawful presence of illegal aliens.
While the report cannot other than broadly discern differences between illegal aliens and lawful immigrants, it does specifically state that a strong proportion of legal residents who left had illegal aliens in their households. It also concludes that while the Hispanic population has remained relatively stable, the proportion of legal residents vs. illegal aliens has dramatically shifted in favor of the law-abiding. I am disappointed you are so eager to gloss over the reports findings which pretty clearly argue against your conclusions.
How about we reset this conversation with the following stipulations: that I’m not a knuckle-dragging segregationist throwback and that you’re not a poorly informed ideologue. Deal?
I’m sorry, but celebrating a law driving out 1700-5700 legal residents merely to remove 2000-6000 criminals is not how you spell success in America.
Furthermore, nothing in the report shows that Rule of Law has led to anything other than potentially fewer Hispanics. Changes in crime rate are unmeasurable due to unreliable earlier estimates, negative changes in PWC’s housing market may or may not be related as well. But correlation does not equal causation in either case.
Ultimately, the economy may have been a larger factor than any effort by PWC so celebrating this as a win and a model for the rest of the Commonwealth is disingenuous at best. Supporters and elected officials are left having to celebrate this as a win to explain the over $3 million price tag with what appears to be negligible demonstrable results aside from 8000 fewer Hispanics.
to the poster who calls himself Greg LETIECQ. I will only agree that you are a “knuckle-dragging segregationist throwback.” Furthermore I will also assert that I am a very well informed liberal- progressive and that those of my kind are absolutely the only ones who are correct on this issue. No compromise, no appeasement. The USA didn’t give an inch for Hitler. Why should we give an inch to you f’cking fascists?
Steve H…I’d love to know what you’re well-informed about. You obviously have no idea what fascism is, or who Hitler was, but you and those like you with diminutive intellectual capacities throw the terms around in an attempt to cover for your specious arguments.
This isn’t an argument about racial purity or anything that you’d like to make it about.
It’s a simple defense of those who waited and those who continue to wait to legally become Americans through the proper systems, who are being undermined and insulted by those who grasp at the benefits of American citizenship through illegal methods.
I’m sure I can speak for Greg in that he has absolutely no problem with anyone of Hispanic origins becoming a legal immigrant through the proper methods and means.
It’s the illegality that is the issue.
Totally agree with Brian Kirwin! You have to have laws mean something. Otherwise, might makes right and we really don’t have a Constitution.
Breaking the law is bad on the face of it. The fact that this country encourages illegal immigration means there is a whole class of people shackled as being illegal and perfect victims to be exploited by the benefactors of illegal labor. This administration just as the Bush administartion, has no intention of solving the root cause of this problem.
As for the flight of legal hispanics, that is economics like all the “whiteys” that move. If they leave because just law is enforced…….that is their ill concieved opinion and their freedom to act on.
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