UVA’s Center for Survey Research released a study today showing that between 2006 and 2008 Prince William County saw a decline in their Hispanic population and that their growth now lags behind other counties in Virginia:
The three-year, $385,000 study – released Tuesday by the university’s Center for Survey Research – also found that the county’s noncitizen Hispanic population, legal and illegal, dropped by 7,700 from 2006 to 2008, and that illegal immigrants accounted for 2,000 to 6,000 of that decline.
The study also found that illegal immigrants were committing a relatively small percentage of the county’s serious crimes, just 6 percent in 2009.
The study also points out that this decline coincided with the economic downturn but that the law had an impact, citing the economy for about half of the decline. But the report also states that that the Rule of Law may have hurt PWC’s economy as well, citing that foreclosure rates in the county were significantly higher than in surrounding counties (see page 79 of the report).
Also:
The study also found that illegal immigrants were committing a relatively small percentage of the county’s serious crimes, just 6 percent in 2009.
A 6% crime rate is proportionate to the estimated size of PWC’s population that is here illegally. Nor does this necessarily demonstrate a significant decline thanks to Rule of Law. The report specifically states that not only is there insufficient data concerning the crime rate among illegal immigrats before the law’s implementation, a decline may also be contributed to less victimization of illegal immigrants but also fewer illegal immigrants reporting crimes out of fear of deportation (page 84-86).
So at the end of the day Prince William County is celebrating the shedding of nearly 8000 people since 2006. Of whom, anywhere from 1,700 to 5,700 were completely legal Hispanics. But we’re not sure if that was the economy or Rule of Law.
Hispanic population growth is flat compared to surrounding counties, but again, this could be Rule of Law or the economy. Prince William county is still recovering from its standing as the unofficial foreclosure capital of Virginia, meaning opportunities not only for Hispanics but all people are limited within the county. It’d be interesting to see if the decline in Hispanic population is proportionate to a decline in the county’s overall population over the same span of time.
So did Rule of Law work? Ultimately the jury is still out. If Rule of Law worked, while PWC saw a decline in illegal immigrants, it also lost an equal number of legal residents. At a cost of $3 million to implement and maintain, not counting another $385,000 to commission a report. So the county so far has spent between $565 to $1692.50 per illegal Hispanic who has left the county. With an estimated 103,000 illegal immigrants in the Commonwealth, a similar program statewide could cost us $56-170 million dollars to implement. Proportionally speaking. That’s a lotta government we’d have to fund.
And what was the ultimate impact for Prince William County? So far one of the highest foreclosure rates in the state and fewer legal residents.
Is this a win?
