Republicans were going to win the House. Looking at exit polls, it’s shocking that anyone doubted, or that people like hopeful-Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi thought that Dems would actually win.
The Senate was there for the taking, but Dick Morris says that Obama’s last-minute blitz did have an impact, and turned out just enough of younger, poorer voters to win states that were trending GOP.
Morris’ column shows how these 2010 elections played out demographically, and to me, it looks like Obama can rebound quite nicely in two years if we aren’t careful.
Those who make under $25,000/year went Democrat 59-36. Obama’s 2008 numbers in 2008 were better. Voters under 30 went 56-37 Democrat, a huge drop from Obama’s 66% take in 2008. But enough turned out in these groups to swing some key races.
As predicted, 2010 black turnout was below 2008 levels, but not as predicted, Republicans gained. Democrats earned 72% of the black vote in exit polling, far below 2008’s 95%.
Will 2012 change not only the turnout levels but the Party split of these categories?
Republicans won every age group 30 and above, and won ages 50 and above by huge margins. In 2008, Obama won voters over 60 by a very slim margin (4%), but won every other age group. In 2010, Republicans won senior citizens by a 19-point margin!
Republicans even split the Union membership vote, showing that the “Reagan Democrats” blue collar coalition is alive and well and willing to vote for whoever improves the economy, regardless of Party.
These were not turnout-driven shifts. These were the areas where Obama lost voters that he truly needs to rebound in 2012 and have any chance at all to save the “ripe for the taking” Senate in two years.
He can do it. It would take a big shift is his public perception and record of accomplishment, but President Clinton needed only a year to reverse those. We can’t make it as easy for Obama as we did for Slick Willy in ’96.
Republicans need to make sure enough young people are excited about our 2012 ticket to rally around and make it competitive. We need to continue our appeal to working Americans who voted big time Republican this year. We can’t write off anything.
We need to compete for every vote and make Democrats play defense across the board like we did this year.
Things to keep in mind as we consider candidates for 2012.
