Young and poor save Obama
By Brian Kirwin | Wednesday, November 10th, 2010 | PoliticsRepublicans were going to win the House. Looking at exit polls, it’s shocking that anyone doubted, or that people like hopeful-Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi thought that Dems would actually win.
The Senate was there for the taking, but Dick Morris says that Obama’s last-minute blitz did have an impact, and turned out just enough of younger, poorer voters to win states that were trending GOP.
Morris’ column shows how these 2010 elections played out demographically, and to me, it looks like Obama can rebound quite nicely in two years if we aren’t careful.
Those who make under $25,000/year went Democrat 59-36. Obama’s 2008 numbers in 2008 were better. Voters under 30 went 56-37 Democrat, a huge drop from Obama’s 66% take in 2008. But enough turned out in these groups to swing some key races.
As predicted, 2010 black turnout was below 2008 levels, but not as predicted, Republicans gained. Democrats earned 72% of the black vote in exit polling, far below 2008′s 95%.
Will 2012 change not only the turnout levels but the Party split of these categories?
Republicans won every age group 30 and above, and won ages 50 and above by huge margins. In 2008, Obama won voters over 60 by a very slim margin (4%), but won every other age group. In 2010, Republicans won senior citizens by a 19-point margin!
Republicans even split the Union membership vote, showing that the “Reagan Democrats” blue collar coalition is alive and well and willing to vote for whoever improves the economy, regardless of Party.
These were not turnout-driven shifts. These were the areas where Obama lost voters that he truly needs to rebound in 2012 and have any chance at all to save the “ripe for the taking” Senate in two years.
He can do it. It would take a big shift is his public perception and record of accomplishment, but President Clinton needed only a year to reverse those. We can’t make it as easy for Obama as we did for Slick Willy in ’96.
Republicans need to make sure enough young people are excited about our 2012 ticket to rally around and make it competitive. We need to continue our appeal to working Americans who voted big time Republican this year. We can’t write off anything.
We need to compete for every vote and make Democrats play defense across the board like we did this year.
Things to keep in mind as we consider candidates for 2012.
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About the author
The right wants to jeer him. The left wants to censor him. Moderates usually want both. Brian Kirwin is a political consultant and public relations strategist in Virginia Beach with a lightning-rod flair. Brian also serves on the VB Arts & Humanities Commission and frequently appears on Hampton Roads theatrical stages, if only to prove that all actors aren’t liberals. Kirwin’s columns stir up debate and hit the political scene with no punches pulled.
Comments
11 Responses to "Young and poor save Obama"
Seniors voted Republican by a 19% margin? Can you say “Two consecutive years without a Social Security COLA increase”? I thought you could.
Great post, Brian. Now I have to go rewrite my e-zine article.
Marco Rubio?
Fight for all votes? How about The vet vote…
Can you all see the screw up in the following email? How about we get the Gov some help… One more dumb thing coming from McD’s crew. Anyone want to call his office and explain where the Flag goes on Veteran’s Day Thank you…
From: Terry, Kathy (GOV)
Sent: Wednesday, November 10, 2010 7:59 AM
To: flagalert@virginiainteractive.org
Subject: Flag Order – Veterans Day, November 11
Governor’s flag order for the for the Commonwealth of Virginia
Pursuant with President Barack Obama’s Presidential Proclamation to display the flag of the United States on Veterans Day, November 11, 2010, I do hereby order that the flags of the United States and of the Commonwealth of Virginia be displayed at full-staff on all local, state, and federal buildings and grounds in the Commonwealth of Virginia in honor and respect of our Veterans and in recognition of their dedicated service and great sacrifice.
I hereby order that the flags shall be displayed at full-staff at sunrise on Thursday, November 11, 2010, and remain at full-staff until sunset.
Further, I encourage Virginians to pay tribute to our Veterans and participate in commemorative activities held in their communities.
Ordered this the 10th day of November, 2010.
Sincerely,
Robert F. McDonnell
http://hamptonroads.com/2009/11/obama-orders-flags-flown-halfstaff-through-veterans-day
Ok I contacted The Gov’s office and they insits it is to be at Full Staff. I give up…
First, William….Memorial Day is the time to half-staff, not Veterans Day.
Second, as a veteran myself, I take great pride in my country and want to also proudly remember those who served gallantly in defense of this country…that pride should be exemplified by having the flag full staff.
Third, you are basing your theory off of LAST YEAR’S navel gazing by the president.
Fourth, this thread is about what groups the GOP has to reach out to, not about how to properly display the flag. Nice attempt at a redirect.
http://www.usflags.com/Flag-Ettiquette.asp
You are correct and my ref to 2009 was to show Obama has done so in the past. FYI: Even I can read the date… LOL
As I indicated, I’ve contact the Gov’s Office and checking with the White House to see why not this year. Anyway back to checking on candidates for 2012…
A brilliant analysis of current Virginia politics.
I would propose that any member of any Tea Party should refuse to vote in any Republican primary for US Senator.
With more college grads finding it hard to find jobs this might not be very hard to do.
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